Argentine Debt-to-GDP

[davonz]

Also interesting to note that it confirms what a low base GDP was coming post 2001, hence you can understand the post growth figures.

Yes when you see what the GDP was in 2003 you then understand why the GDP to debt graph is so dramatic. So debt might not have changed much at all, but because GDP dropped so much it makes the GDP/DEBT graph look really bad.. which it was !!!

 

[expatinowncountry]

Argentina is losing competitiveness because of the strong real appreciation of the peso in the last few years. So you either: reduce inflation drastically, devaluate the peso, or you increase your productivity a lot. None of the three are easy, specially when you have incompetent people in the government. It did not help either that Brazil has devaluated the real lately. So, the solution the genius in the government found was to restrict imports.
Some Argentine exports will remain competitive almost whatever the government does (ie soybean) but others are collapsing. For example, Argentina was able to claim a good share of the inexpensive wine markets and they were exporting 2 euros Malbec (you see them in Africa and Asia for instance, would not try them personally). That market is gone. And it is even worst for the MOI (manufactures of industrial origin).
I really do not see how these people will turn things around. It can be done (soybean is at $600tn!!!), but probably not by them.

Just to add to this... I found this graph. It is very impressive, despite the continuous devaluation of the peso, Argentine inflation is so high that the real exchange rate is almost at the same level than the mega default.

 

[Napoleon]

For instance, the average Chinese went from consuming 9kg of meat per year in 1970 to almost 54kg in 2007. This number is expected to be over 60kg by 2020. The USA average is around 123kg...[FONT=&quot][/FONT]

WTF?

There is NO WAY that "the average Chinese" is consuming 54kg of meat per year. I would say that 5.4kg might be a stretch.

There are people who probably eat meat once a month, if that. Maybe even just once a year. That country is filled with starving people and people who eat steroided up chickens, fishing bait minnows, and anything else that moves solely for the protein. They've got OVER 1 billion people!

Please post a link. And the USA isn't anywhere close to 123kgs/person per year. I doubt it's even 123 lbs/person. (2.2 lbs = 1 kg)

The Average American is NOT eating 3/4 of a pound a beef every day. Maybe a small handful, but not anywhere close to "the average".

Most people I know only eat beef 2 or 3 times a week. That would mean 1.75 lbs to 2.65 lbs of beef on the days that they eat it. Ummm... not a chance in haides.

That being said, price controls have killed the Argentine beef industry.

UPDATE:

This chart agrees with your numbers: http://chartsbin.com/view/bhy

I'll keep looking for one that agrees with mine.


UPDATE #2:

I found a chart that looks good to me: http://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?commodity=beef-and-veal-meat&graph=per-capita-consumption

Per Capita Consumption:

#1: 61.00 kg/person = Uruguay
#2: 55.00 kg/person = Argentina
#3: 39.00 kg/person = Brazil
#4: 38.00 kg/person = Paraguay
#5: 36.00 kg/person = USA
.
.
#55: 4.00 kg/person = China

 

[nicoenarg]

WTF?

There is NO WAY that "the average Chinese" is consuming 54kg of meat per year. I would say that 5.4kg might be a stretch.

There are people who probably eat meat once a month, if that. Maybe even just once a year. That country is filled with starving people and people who eat steroided up chickens, fishing bait minnows, and anything else that moves solely for the protein. They've got OVER 1 billion people!

Please post a link. And the USA isn't anywhere close to 123kgs/person per year. I doubt it's even 123 lbs/person. (2.2 lbs = 1 kg)

The Average American is NOT eating 3/4 of a pound a beef every day. Maybe a small handful, but not anywhere close to "the average".

Most people I know only eat beef 2 or 3 times a week. That would mean 1.75 lbs to 2.65 lbs of beef on the days that they eat it. Ummm... not a chance in haides.

That being said, price controls have killed the Argentine beef industry.

I think he meant to say "average consumption per person in China" as opposed to "average Chinese person".

I see what you're saying here but there is a HUGE income disparity in China. Vast majority of the population is poor but the minority that is rich has really started spending in the past few years. And food is one of the things they spend on.

 

[Napoleon]

I think he meant to say "average consumption per person in China" as opposed to "average Chinese person".

I see what you're saying here but there is a HUGE income disparity in China. Vast majority of the population is poor but the minority that is rich has really started spending in the past few years. And food is one of the things they spend on.

I get what he meant, but it doesn't change a thing.

 

[expatinowncountry]

I get what he meant, but it doesn't change a thing.

you have lived in Argentina for too long and call carne only to beef . look to the tittle in your second chart: it is beef and veal while in my statement it was meat (like in chart 1).

meat includes beef, veal, poultry and specially in the case of China, pork and the list goes on. they eat pork every single day, except in the northwest where they eat lamb.

I could give you other sources of data that are even better than the map, but the map is quite accurate. It was probably built with the FAO data.

EDIT: sorry, just in case FAO = Food and Agriculture Organization.

 

[davonz]

meat includes beef, veal, poultry and specially in the case of China, pork and the list goes on. they eat pork every single day, except in the northwest where they eat lamb.

i am shocked that chinese people eat so much meat, and even more shocked that kiwis/aussies/americans etc eat as much as they do.

i know chinese do have meat with most meals (like most asians), but its usually so thinly sliced, and small bits i would never have thought it would add up to so much.

 

[expatinowncountry]

i am shocked that chinese people eat so much meat, and even more shocked that kiwis/aussies/americans etc eat as much as they do.

i know chinese do have meat with most meals (like most asians), but its usually so thinly sliced, and small bits i would never have thought it would add up to so much.

54Kg/365days = 147 grams per day. I am too lazy to look in the FAO website to see if that amount is based on live animals (and therefore include bones) or is net meat.

In any case, what should worry us is the consequences of developing countries catching up with the level of consumption of OECD countries. Yes, the price of soybean will skyrocket but more importantly the pressure on the environment would be terrible as greenhouse emissions and land and energy requirements for cattle production tend to be large (I remember something like consuming 1Kg beef=driving 150 highway miles in terms of CO2 emissions).

And now I realize this thread was about debt to gdp ratios!

 

[esllou]

I read few years back that if every chinese family ate one extra chicken a week, the amount of corn/grain it would take to raise that amount of extra chickens was equivalent to something like the grain output of canada. May be remembering that wrongly but it was a stat that left had my jaw dropped for a few seconds.

If Asia/China industrialises to the same extent that US/Europe has/did, the world is in for a lot of hurt. But then, can we turn around and say "no, you can't do that, only we were allowed to"?

 

[Napoleon]

you have lived in Argentina for too long and call carne only to beef :). look to the tittle in your second chart: it is beef and veal while in my statement it was meat (like in chart 1).

meat includes beef, veal, poultry and specially in the case of China, pork and the list goes on. they eat pork every single day, except in the northwest where they eat lamb...

"Meat" does NOT include POULTRY or PORK in English. Or at least not in American English. Not when discussing what foods one does or does not eat. This has nothing to do with living anywhere in particular for an extended period of time.

YES, VEAL = MEAT, because it's still a cow. It doesn't matter if it's young or not. A cow is a cow. It's not like it's a caterpillar and then a butterfly. It's a small cow and then a bigger cow.

In this States, this is a common question:

Q: "You don't eat 'meat', but do you eat chicken?"
A: "Yes, I eat chicken. And seafood as well. I just don't eat meat."
Q: "What about pork?"
A: "No... well, I might put a little bacon on my salad."

This is from someone who "Doesn't eat 'meat'."

I would say "Dead animal." but only in mixed company.