Big Heist in Argentina

[Fettucini]

Can anyone explain to me why the 47 billion usd in reserves won't put off the risk of a default in Argentina in 2009?

 

[RWS]

I think it will put off the apparently impending default -- for a time. Until endemic political corruption is excised, however, risk (imminent in a time of economic difficulty) remains.

 

[Fettucini]

Yes seems that perhaps most of these articles suggesting a 2009 default are very sensationalist then as it would appear obvious with such big reserves that it could be easily avoided (for 2009 at least), unless of course they believe the government is lying about the size of their reserves.

 

[Stanexpat]

Yes seems that perhaps most of these articles suggesting a 2009 default are very sensationalist then as it would appear obvious with such big reserves that it could be easily avoided (for 2009 at least), unless of course they believe the government is lying about the size of their reserves.

We will learn more in time, but obviously the situation is becoming more desperate. The Economist has a good article on the situation as follows:


Argentina's government makes a grab for private-pension funds | Cristina’s looking-glass world | The Economist

 

[allegra]

The history of Argentina's cyclical financial debacles cannot be ignored. Who can truly believe that fault is solely with "others"...evil empires, the IMF, etc. As long as there is institutionalized corruption, we will be plagued by these cycles of feast or famine. I read this thread and agree with most of the comments. I believe the probability of a default is higher than ever.

What puzzles me is that each democratically elected gov't since 1982 is worse than the last. And some get elected for a second term. How can the constituents fail themselves so miserably? I vote here but my ballot since 1989 has been a blank one. The presidential candidates, as I have perceived them, have left me no other choice.

Why are some people so surprised? The actions of the current regime are simply a duplication of what they did when they were in power in the province of Santa Cruz. When they are done at the national level, they will retrive to their lair down South. Main Street will once again be left poorer while their personal fortunes have doubled.

 

[citygirl]

Well, given firms like Goldman Sachs are estimating that there is about a 50% chance of default (and that percentage grows in 2010 & 2011), I would say people aren't being sensationalist when talking about it.

 

[Stanexpat]

Well, given firms like Goldman Sachs are estimating that there is about a 50% chance of default (and that percentage grows in 2010 & 2011), I would say people aren't being sensationalist when talking about it.

If they don't get the pension grab approved by congress the problem will arrive in 2009. What's scary this is just a stop-gap solution. It doesn't address the underlining problem of the government continuing to spend beyond its means. All this does is delay the day of reckoning. The longer this goes on the bigger the hang-over will be down the road.

 

[JG]

Wow, what a long thread. I'll have to read it all later. Just read a disturbing report on Bloomberg News, Bloomberg.com: Latin America.

Yesterday, I finished a book in English about the history of Argentina. It was so chilling, I had trouble sleeping last night. Six military coups last century and a decade of "fake" democracy during the 1930. The chapters on the 1800s weren't any lighter, believe me.

I was here in 2002. I think dispite the economic turmoil in the USA and global markets, I know the usa remains the icon of political stability, no protests in the street according to family and friends, and i havent heard of any rock throwing.

I was here in 2002, I fear, I dread and anticipate, kidnappings and chaos......again! Meanwhile, Santa Cruz's funds sit in secret Swiss bank accounts, doing the public no good at all, the same public that is now putting their future retirement funds in the hands of the K gang.

 

[Fettucini]

Well, given firms like Goldman Sachs are estimating that there is about a 50% chance of default (and that percentage grows in 2010 & 2011), I would say people aren't being sensationalist when talking about it.

Yes well let's hope you're not right City Girl!

 

[perry]

There is also a 50 percent chance that the Worldwide Banking system will collapse in the next six months. There is also a huge chance that Iran will be attacked soon. There is also a huge chance that the the euro and pound will lose a lot of their values in the next months.

Lets be frank have the international media from Bloomberg to Goldberg and the rest have they ever written anything positive about Argentina ? There are vested interests who are waiting with glee for Argentina to crash and burn.