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Argentina to Ease FX Controls After Peso Devaluation.
Argentina plans to ease currency controls after letting the peso devalue by the most in 12 years, reversing policies that caused reserves to decline and spawned a burgeoning black market amid accelerating inflation.
The cost to insure Argentine debt and the extra yield investors demand to own its bonds jumped to a three-month high.
Argentines will be able to buy dollars in proportion to their income, and a 35 percent redeemable tax on buying foreign currency will be cut to 20 percent, Cabinet Chief Jorge Capitanich said today in Buenos Aires. Currently, Argentines are often denied requests to buy dollars from the central bank, fueling illegal street trading in which the peso changes hands at as little as half the value.
“We believe that our administered currency policy has reached an acceptable level of convergence for our economic objectives,” Capitanich said at the presidential palace.
President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner is trying to stave off an economic crisis as foreign reserves hit the lowest in seven years, prompting the government to reduce currency intervention this week. Policy makers are trying to close a gap with a black market where Argentines are willing to pay as much as 13 pesos a dollar compared with the official rate of 7.9013 as of 8:11 a.m. in New York.
Argentine consumer prices are rising at an estimated 28 percent a year, the second-highest rate in the hemisphere after Venezuela, while growth is slowing.
After a period of strong growth and investment following the 2002 economic crisis, the government has implemented a series of unsustainable measures and is being forced to reverse tack, Nobel laureate economist Joseph Stiglitz said.
Forced Changes
“Reality will clearly force some changes: you have to live within your means, if your currency is going down, it means you’re going to be paying more for your imports,” Stiglitz, a Columbia University professor, said in an interview today on Bloomberg Television. “They will have to change their policies and the question is when and how.”
Fernandez’s policies of printing money to fund social spending on subsidies while freezing utility rates amid accelerating inflation are unraveling as the budget deficit widens and funding from the treasury and pension fund grows. Investment in South America’s second-largest economy has tumbled amid import controls and delays in approving company dividend repatriations.
The International Monetary Fund, which censured Argentina last year for misreporting inflation, predicts economic growth will slow to 2.8 percent this year, about half the 5.1 percent average across developing nations.
Yield Spread
The cost to insure Argentine debt against default for five years soared the most since August, climbing 194 basis points, or 1.94 percentage point, to 2,376 basis points, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The extra yield, or spread, on Argentine bonds over Treasuries widened 16 basis points to 1,012 basis points, according to data compiled by JPMorgan Chase & Co.
The tumble in the peso yesterday was the biggest since 2002, when Argentina abandoned a one-to-one peg with the dollar after a record $95 billion default. Argentina’s currency has plunged 17 percent this year, the most in the world.
“Those who wanted us to believe that the dollar was worth 1 peso now want us to believe that it’s worth 13,” Economy Minister Axel Kicillof said today.
Capital Flight
After winning re-election in 2011, Fernandez began to restrict access to foreign currency amid capital flight that surged to a record $21 billion that year. Since then, the government has implemented more than 30 measures to cut access, including taxes on credit card purchases and limits on online spending, that have failed to curb dollar demand.
Reserves have tumbled at a rate of $1.1 billion a month over the past year to a seven-year low of $29.3 billion. Energy imports increased 23 percent to $11.4 billion in 2013 while exports fell 24 percent to $5.3 billion.
Reserves have fallen about $18 billion since October 2011, when the government began to limit access to foreign currency.
In the first three quarters of 2013, the nation posted a current account deficit of $1.27 billion, the largest for that period since its economic crisis. Argentina’s trade surplus narrowed 27 percent to $9 billion in 2013 as fuel imports rose and soy prices dropped 28 percent, while producers withheld stocks of the oilseed waiting for the peso to weaken further.
The easing of restrictions may allow the government to stabilize currency imbalances and promote investment, former central bank president Mario Blejer said in an interview in Davos.
“All measures that seek to reduce the chaos and intervention in the FX market would tend towards stabilizing the situation,” Blejer said. “A devaluation was needed because the exchange rate policy has been erratic in the past years.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Daniel Cancel in Buenos Aires at
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To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andre Soliani at
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