1. Most of Brazil is not Ipanema or Floripa - it's chaos. Average Brazilian isn't waking up saying "cara... that pension crisis and budget deficit has me so worried...", they just want to be able to walk outside without having a machete or pistol in their face, which most can't.
I think this comment shows how out of touch with the country you are.
Yes, crime and safety is a huge issue in Brazil, and that cannot be overstated enough. But that is still ONE issue in the midst of many other serious problems. Yes, the average Brazilian might not be able to articulate that they worry about budget deficits or the pension crisis. But they do worry a lot about their paycheck keeping up with rising prices. Millions of retirees do worry about getting their retirement check every month. Millions of police officers, public servants, teachers, etc... across the country do worry about getting paid on time when virtually every state in the union is bankrupt and without funds. Those things cannot and will not be solved by militias. To even suggest that is absurd. They will be solved by addressing the budget deficit issue, the pension issue, the labor laws issue. And for that you need Congress and the institutions.If he cannot deliver on that, he is politically doomed, militias or not.
Again, Brazil is not Peru, Venezuela, Colombia or Honduras.
This is the social class setup of Brazil as it stands today (
Source):
- Class A (2.7%): composed of bankers, investors, business owners, major landowners and people with extraordinary skills for the industry they operate in
- Class B (23.1%): composed of directors and managers, judges, prosecutors, highly educated professors, doctors, well qualified engineers, lawyers, etc
- Class C (47.5%): composed of those who provide services directly to the wealthier groups, such as teachers, managers, mechanics, electricians, nurses, etc
- Class D: composed of people who provide services to Class C, such as housemaids, bartenders, bricklayers, people who work for civil construction companies, small store owners, low-paid drivers, etc
- Class E: composed of people who earn minimum salaries, such as cleaners, street sweepers and also unemployed people
Class A + Class B + Class C comprise over 70% of the Brazilian population. That is middle class and above, and their expectations from the government go well beyond armed militias keeping the peace in barrios. They want stable currency, business and career opportunities, infrastructure, good public services, assurances of retirement, occasional trips to Miami, cable TV, etc...And due to their huge share of votes and political/economic power that comes with it, they are the ones who can make or break any government or regime. They were the reason why Lula and Dilma could not turn Brazil into a Venezuela (they wanted it really bad) and the reason why Bolsonaro will not be able to rule with armed militias (as if he had any).
So no, Bolsonaro will not turn into a dictator ruling via militias. More likely, he will be either a very ineffective president or one that will have to learn to play ball with the existing political establishment in order to get things done.
