Corona Virus May Hit Argentina Hard

When will Argentina see its first Corona Virus case?

  • This week

    Votes: 5 19.2%
  • This month (January)

    Votes: 1 3.8%
  • After January

    Votes: 14 53.8%
  • Never

    Votes: 6 23.1%

  • Total voters
    26

steveinbsas

Registered
I guess you saw that another option with Disco is to select the groceries online and then go pick them up yourself. I realize you may not be able to pick them up yourself (and that's what you were asking about delivery), but doing it that way, we were able to get a pick up date of next Wednesday.
Regarding any items delivered or picked up in person, this video points out that everything brought into the home should be treated (disinfected) as if it is already contaminated with the coronavirus:

 

Pensador

Registered
Regarding any items delivered or picked up in person, this video points out that everything brought into the home should be treated (disinfected) as if it is already contaminated with the coronavirus:
Yup you cannot it see so assume everything has it including your hands, skin and cloths if you have been outside. My wife hates it but I am a total nut job finatic on this practice.
 

jeff1234

Registered
First rumblings of food supply problems in La Plata. Big stores running low on stock. Small stores closing because they think they are going to be looted.
 

Bajo_cero2

Registered
What you describe sounds familiar. Suggestion: Rappi - go online on our cell phone, do a search for Rappi and download the app. You can shop from there. Rappi buys products for you from Coto, Disco, Jumbo, Carrefour and delivers.
You can also register yourself and use their website from a desktop, easier to use when shopping.
Go out now that is not so bad and buy food for 2 or 3 months. I did it 2 weeks ago. It was easier then.
 

artisans

Registered
Here is a vimeo of a Zoom meeting with the head ICU doctor at Weill Medical Center in NYC where they are treating COVID19, 24 hours a day.
It's a meeting he had with his extended family and friends to explain everything you need to know with practical information on risks of infection, how to protect yourself from the virus, care for family members and etc. Much to be learned here.

The #1 take away for myself was:.
You need to be close to a human carrier for a considerable amount of time, like 15 to 30 minutes, to catch the virus.

It’s grounding and not alarmist information

Note: at moments the video stalls but no need to worry, give it a second, it continues:
https://vimeo.com/39973386
 

artisans

Registered
Regarding any items delivered or picked up in person, this video points out that everything brought into the home should be treated (disinfected) as if it is already contaminated with the coronavirus:
You may want to temper your outlook on the risks and procedures for shopping for groceries and grocery deliveries with advice offered in this article,
an excellent, authoritative assessment article on the very limited risks of grocery shopping and receiving deliveries of same or other packages by Joseph G. Allen is an assistant professor of exposure and assessment science and director of the Healthy Buildings Program at Harvard University’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health. The article ends with: Risk "..is de minimis. That’s a scientific way of saying, “The risks are small, and manageable.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/26/dont-panic-about-shopping-getting-delivery-or-accepting-packages/?utm_campaign=wp_week_in_ideas&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_ideas
 

semigoodlookin

Registered
I am writing this simply to detail some data for people to consider. From the start, I have avoided comparing COVID-19 to the flu and keep my opinion on that subject. This is different and worthy of our worry and comparisons with flu are concerning because the mortality rates seem to be different. That said, I decided to do some research when Perry said COVID-19 is killing more than any flu. I fully agree with this at a regional level (Italy) but I think the data shows differently at a global level.

So, at the time of writing COVID-19 has killed 32,144 people around the world. Let's base this off the outbreak starting on Jan.1. I know it seems the Chinese were covering it up in December and maybe earlier, but I think the start of the year is a good place to start. Not least because then the outbreak was still limited to China. Since then, 89 days have passed meaning the average daily death rate for COVID-19 is 361 per day. If you want to increase the timeframe through December you can, which would obviously mean the average daily death rate of coronavirus dropping lower. Read "some things to consider" below to see why I don't think extending into December is a good measurment.

Now, let's look at flu in the United States alone. The CDC defines the flu season as lasting between October to as late as May. However, historical data shows the true season (peak infections) happening during the months December, January, Feburary, and March:

flu-peak-activity-updated-CDC.jpg

With that in mind, the 2019/2020 seasonal flu season in the United States saw an estimated 35 million flu cases. Estimated is important because CDC uses Case Fatality Rate (CFR) to extrapolate known hard data to reach a conclusion on potential infections. I won't go into CFR here, but you should look it up. It's worth noting the CDC (and most other similar organizations) use CFR to estimate the mortality rate of COVID-19.

Moving on. From the 35 million flu cases, the CDC says between October and March, there have been between 24,000 and 61,000 deaths from seasonal flu. Again, the cases would have peaked from December to March. So, if we take the low number and high numbers, what are the average daily deaths caused by flu?

Low average (24,000) from December to date (120 days): An average of 200 daily deaths. Not far from the daily death rate of COVID-19 despite having a month longer.
Low average (24,000) from October to date (181 days): An average of 135 deaths per day.

High average (61,000) from December to date (120 days): An average of 508 daily deaths. Significantly higher than the current daily death rate for COVID-19. Remember, this information is only for the United States
High average (61,000) from October to date (181 days): Average of 337 daily fatalities.

Mean (42,500) from December to date (120 days): 354 deaths per day.
Mean (42,500) from October to date (181 days): 234 deaths per day.

If we extrapolate data from the US flu season worldwide, it is obvious during the last flu season, more people died from flu on a daily basis than are dying from COVID-19.

Some things to consider

The data for COVID-19 includes nearly 2 months (Jan and Feb) when the virus was relatively limited to a few regions and so killing less people each day. That's why including December in any measurments of the outbreak is pointless in my opinion. In other words, perhaps the fair measurement would be to see the average daily death rate 89 days from March 1 (so, sometime in early June). If the world remains in thr toilet by then, I will return to check this out.
There is a defined flu season and it is unclear is COVID-19 will assume a similar seasonal pattern. Its spread to countries out of season suggests not, but we'll see. Either way, this means the virus could spread through the year with no end in sight and eventally surpass the daily death rate for flu by a significant margin. Again, we'll see.

It is important to remember flu cases and deaths in October and November are extremely low compared to the peak months. I included the data above out of transperancy, but don't think including October and November provides a fair result.

I want to repeat that Italy shows that COVID-19 can do far more damage than flu at a regional level. This is the main reason why I don't subscribe to the "it's the same as flu" idea. If coronavirus was allowed to run rampant, we would have 100 Italy's around the world. We are already heading that way despite numerous efforts. In other words, I agree with the isolation idea (at least in principle but not in practice) as the late remedy it is

If you dispute the methodology of Case Fatality Rate (CFR), that's fair enough. It is notably unreliable at the start of a viral outbreak. However, if you dismiss CFR when applied to flu cases, you must also dismiss it when it's applied to COVID-19 and its mortality rate.

I like to use data and facts where possible. However, while the figures show a compelling argument to say "this is no worse than" flu, there are things worth putting into perspective. Firstly, we are clearly in a fluid situation and COVID-19 is certainly not finished yet. I think at the moment we are looking at how many people it could infect. There is historical evidence to say it could infect as many as seasonal flu (between 30 million and 55 million in the United States this past season) or there is historical evidence to suggest it could outbreak and infect a third of the population (Spanish Flu).
 

jeff1234

Registered
Consider also that Italy is unique in that many working adults live with older parents. Also we don't know how many people had the virus but didn't know it and/or didn't report it so their survival is not part of the death rate calculation.
 
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