Corona Virus May Hit Argentina Hard

[semigoodlookin]

Consider also that Italy is unique in that many working adults live with older parents. Also we don't know how many people had the virus but didn't know it and/or didn't report it so their survival is not part of the death rate calculation.

That's why you should read about CFR, the calculation method used by most organizations to reach a mortality rate of a virus (flu or COVID-19). It is based on extrapolating known data to reach estimates on total number of infected. It is a used method and reaches some conclusions. However, it also results in a wide data spread (hence why flu estimates range from by tens of millions for infected each year). Furthermore, CFR almost always overestimates the mortality rate of a virus when it is first spreading.

You should check out some reading on this, esepcially scientific papers on the CFR. Some good places to start:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1qDOidGYcH5DqWcQn75abiNB7jyUv6Az2GmDjCn4OHK

c

Estimating Risk for Death from Coronavirus Disease, China, January–February 2020

Estimating Risk for Death from COVID-19, China

wwwnc.cdc.gov

I want to be clear and say CFR is not a fool's errand. It is a methematical principle and there's a reason why it is used globally. Still, even those orgainzations that use it know it has a wide scope for bias.

 

[jeff1234]

Looking closer at the impact of COVID-19 in Italy, paints a different picture.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths in Italy as of March 28, 2020, by age group
0 - 29 years 1
30-39 years 18
40-49 years 76
50 -59 years 314
60-69 years 971
70 -79 years 2967
80 - 89 years 3344
over 90 years 767
Published by Statista Research Department, Mar 28, 2020

In addition 24% of the people in Italy smoke compared to 14% in the US.

 

[semigoodlookin]

Looking closer at the impact of COVID-19 in Italy, paints a different picture.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths in Italy as of March 28, 2020, by age group
0 - 29 years 1
30-39 years 18
40-49 years 76
50 -59 years 314
60-69 years 971
70 -79 years 2967
80 - 89 years 3344
over 90 years 767
Published by Statista Research Department, Mar 28, 2020

In addition 24% of the people in Italy smoke compared to 14% in the US.

Paints a different picture of what. I don't understand the point you're trying to make. That Italy is a unique situation because of its population?

 

[on the brink]

Looking closer at the impact of COVID-19 in Italy, paints a different picture.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths in Italy as of March 28, 2020, by age group
0 - 29 years 1
30-39 years 18
40-49 years 76
50 -59 years 314
60-69 years 971
70 -79 years 2967
80 - 89 years 3344
over 90 years 767
Published by Statista Research Department, Mar 28, 2020

In addition 24% of the people in Italy smoke compared to 14% in the US.

Interesting, but I don't know how to interpret it without knowing what percentage of the population falls into each age group. Can anyone clarify this?

 

[Pensador]

This thread is mind blowing in a little over 60 day here we are. Imagine all the people caught totally off guard with zero preparation. Look at the US a virtual cluster F##* from the ignorance of the republicans. Italy hammmer, spain on the way and more to come. The locals here are like nothing is happening... Oh wait URU something you cannot see is happening and soon unless really make some adjustments you will clearly see what was happening but sadly perhaps far to late.

 

[artisans]

This thread is mind blowing in a little over 60 day here we are. Imagine all the people caught totally off guard with zero preparation. Look at the US a virtual cluster F##* from the ignorance of the republicans. Italy hammmer, spain on the way and more to come. The locals here are like nothing is happening... Oh wait URU something you cannot see is happening and soon unless really make some adjustments you will clearly see what was happening but sadly perhaps far to late.

Personally I wouldn't write off Argentina with the rest. The government seems responsible and has the governors of the provinces on board with his actions. Fernandez is responsible and has taken action, he has a message that unites the people. They've closed the borders and introduced the cuarentena taking people off the streets and establishing social distancing on a population that is high touch and naturally groups up. The police have arrested 1440 people for being derelict in the cuarentena. The chats I see in Spanish give the strong impression there's social pressure amongst citizens to 'quedarte en casa'. People are self quarantined after arriving from traveling. And people are reporting offenders.
Considering how maddeningly malfunctional getting things done in Buenos Aires can be it seems to be working. The infection numbers have risen but they're not exploding. The government says it has expanded testing locations.
It is a work in progress and remains to be seen what happens in April. But it looks like they've got a shot to get control.

 

[Pensador]

Personally I wouldn't write off Argentina with the rest. The government seems responsible and has the governors of the provinces on board with his actions. Fernandez is responsible and has taken action, he has a message that unites the people. They've closed the borders and introduced the cuarentena taking people off the streets and establishing social distancing on a population that is high touch and naturally groups up. The police have arrested 1440 people for being derelict in the cuarentena. The chats I see in Spanish give the strong impression there's social pressure amongst citizens to 'quedarte en casa'. People are self quarantined after arriving from traveling. And people are reporting offenders.
Considering how maddeningly malfunctional getting things done in Buenos Aires can be it seems to be working. The infection numbers have risen but they're not exploding. The government says it has expanded testing locations.
It is a work in progress and remains to be seen what happens in April. But it looks like they've got a shot to get control.

Please read my post again I said nothing about Argentina

 

[admin]

Please read my post again I said nothing about Argentina

Are you sure you are on the right forum?

 

[Pensador]

Science with this it seems to just get more nuts at times potentially 86% of cases are mild but yet contagious.

 

[Pensador]

This does get interesting when you think about it. I have lived in both Argentina and Uruguay if Uruguay or other small countries do little about it being such small countries they would get herd immunity relatively quickly. Arg takes the other path trying to stop it and I am not saying that is a bad thing. But once both countries get over it URU has herd immunity but one infected person from URU into ARG could theoritically start a whole new crisis in BA. Interesting dynamics when you think about these things.