I think this cable from the Wikileaks dump is very insightful:
http://cables.mrkva.eu/cable.php?id=160006
US embassy cable - 08BUENOSAIRES893
MACRI AND SCIOLI ON THE POLITICAL SITUATION IN ARGENTINA
1. (C) Summary: South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford and the
CDA met with Argentina's two most prominent center-right
politicians, Buenos Aires Governor Daniel Scioli and Buenos
Aires City Mayor Mauricio Macri on June 12. Scioli, formally
allied with the Kirchner government, appeared haggard and did
not bother to defend the government's handling of the
long-running farm crisis. Macri spoke with great disdain for
the Kirchners and pledged, in the clearest terms that we've
heard from him, his intention to run for Argentina's
presidency in 2011. Macri is not, however, eager to see the
Kirchners leave the scene before then. When asked by Gov.
Sanford whether the Kirchner regime would make it to the end
of its term, Macri replied, "I sure hope so." End Summary.
2. (C) South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford visited
Argentina from June 25-27, and met with Argentine officials
on June 26. Sanford, accompanied by the CDA, met separately
with the country's two most prominent right-leaning
politicians, Buenos Aires province Governor Daniel Scioli and
Buenos Aires city Mayor Mauricio Macri. The difference
between the two was striking: Scioli, a Kirchner ally,
appeared beaten down and distracted, while Macri was animated
and relaxed, despite his concern for the current situation.
Down and Out in La Plata
------------------------
3. (SBU) Scioli began his meeting, which took place in
Scioli's offices in the provincial capital of La Plata, with
Sanford by noting that the country was enmeshed in a very
difficult face-off between the GOA and farm sector which
began, he said, "as a result of the tax measures that the
government insisted on implementing." He did not defend the
GOA's position, but noted grimly that 93% of the territory in
his province was occupied by farmers, and that soybeans, the
crop at the heart of the current crisis, was an important
crop for many of his constituents.
4. (U) Scioli spent the rest of the meeting asking the
governor about South Carolina's success in attracting foreign
investment and noting the similarities between the economies
of his province and South Carolina.
The Mayor: Hat in the Ring?
---------------------------
5. (C) The Governor and CDA met Mayor Macri later on June 26
at the Buenos Aires City Hall. The mayor opened by
indicating that Argentina's main problem at present is the
ruling couple, who are governing in a dysfunctional way. The
governor asked whether Macri would help retire the Kirchners
from public life by running for president in the next
election. Macri responded: "I will. I'm going to go for
it."
6. (C) When Sanford asked if President Cristina Fernandez de
Kirchner's regime would last to the end of its term, Macri
replied, "I don't know. I hope so." He explained that the
failure of an elected government to make it to the end of its
term would be a "calamity" for Argentina. Nor, he said,
would it be convenient for him. He had much to do to make
the capital city more livable and dynamic, and he wanted to
complete his work as mayor without the distraction of a
collapsing federal government.
7. (C) Macri was not shy in expressing his disdain for the
first couple, especially ex-president Nestor Kirchner.
"(Nestor) Kirchner is completely crazy," he told the
Governor. "All of the favorable external circumstances in
Argentina's favor over the last few years obscured that from
people's view, but now it's clear. He's just crazy." Citing
President Bush, PM Zapatero, Chancellor Schroeder, and a host
of other international leaders who had personally experienced
the former Argentine president's incivility, Macri complained
that no foreign leaders had stood up to Kirchner and made him
pay for his rudeness and defiance. This encouraged Kirchner
to believe that his confrontational approach to politics had
no costs. Now, Macri said, "we're paying the price" in
Argentina, starting with the country's lack of access to
international capital markets.
8. (C) Noting challenges that still confront his state,
Governor Sanford asked for any advice Macri might have in
advancing reform. Macri replied that "the United States has
nothing to learn from Argentina. We need to learn from you."
He told the governor that, a century ago, the GDP of
Argentina was roughly 80% of that of the United States, even
though it was a much smaller country. Now, Argentina's GDP
was fifty times smaller than U.S. GDP. With the right
policies, he continued, Argentina could reverse this "reverse
development" over a span of 40 years time. He hoped that the
reformist era in national politics would begin in 2011.
Comment
-------
9. (C) The two meetings suggest that the relative proximity
of politicians to the GOA is a useful gauge of their morale
and confidence. Despite his graciousness to the visiting
governor, Scioli was a mess, sweating profusely, losing his
train of thought, and appearing like he hadn't slept in days.
This was not the poised, smooth former Vice President in the
Nestor Kirchner administration whom we know so well. Our
best guess is that the farm strike has taken a toll on him.
He is walking a tightrope between his poor constituents in
the working class districts that ring the Buenos Aires
metropolitan area and the defiant countryside that covers
much of the territory that he governs. His earlier efforts
to mediate have been disabled and sabotaged by the Kirchners.
Now, he must suffer in silence as the Kirchners try to
bludgeon farmers (including many of his constituents) into
submission.
10. (C) Scioli has long been known to have Presidential
ambitions, and our contacts say his best chances for making a
bid in 2011 is to break with the Kirchners sooner rather than
later. Scioli's approval ratings have taken a hit during the
protracted farm dispute, with his approval rating dropping to
34% (from 58% pre-farm strike) and "neutral" rating rising to
46% (from 22%). Our sources opine that if the agricultural
sector is not appeased by the ultimate outcome in the
Congress regarding the variable agricultural export taxes, he
will have to break with the Kirchners to survive politically.
Given his province's financial dependence on the federal
government, however, it's not clear whether he will be
willing to make the break.
11. (C) Macri, on the other hand, seemed fired up and ready
to take the Kirchners on -- in due course. After spending
much of the farm crisis on the sidelines ("the city doesn't
grow soybeans," he explained to the governor), Macri has
recently become more assertive on the issue, taking on the
federal government in this week's battle (reftel) over the
placement of tents on city property adjacent to the Congress
by GOA supporters. His statement of intent to run for
president in 2011 was the clearest that we've heard from him.
It may be that the Kirchners' declining fortunes have
convinced him that the future looks brighter than ever for an
anti-Kirchner, non-Peronist politician like himself.
Scioli's glumness may reflect the same realization.
12. (C) Political analysts doubt, however, that Macri can
win without a national party structure behind him. Our
contacts within Macri's party, Propuesta Nacional, tell us
that building a national party structure will take years to
accomplish. Macri's major weakness is that he has not
reached out to other mayors and provincial governors in an
effort to build national support. Speculation among the
political class currently suggests that Macri will have to
cut a deal with dissident Peronist leader Eduardo Duhalde in
order to claim the Casa Rosada in 2011. But if Scioli makes
his move first, Macri's chances of winning will decline, even
if he forges an alliance with the center-left Civic Coalition
headed by Elisa Carrio. Even so, Macri does not seem to be
in a hurry to cut any deals with the Peronist Party just yet.
