Dollar Blue Rate After The Elections

[laLuz]

Is there any speculation about immediate effects on the dollar blue rate after the elections, if any? I'm planning to sell a bigger amount soon so I wonder if it's better to do so now or after. Recently I was told that there will be an effect even though I can't really think of a measure that would change supply and demand immediately (except of deregulation). I'm asking people that really have knowledge of argentine politics...

 

[dennisr]

THINK it is a forgone conclusion the blue will hit new highs after the elections.

http://www.iprofesional.com/notas/171755-En-la-vida-hay-que-elegir-el-Gobierno-frente-al-dilema-de-cuidar-reservas-o-contener-al-dlar

 

[Inferno.]

Is there any speculation about immediate effects on the dollar blue rate after the elections, if any? I'm planning to sell a bigger amount soon so I wonder if it's better to do so now or after. Recently I was told that there will be an effect even though I can't really think of a measure that would change supply and demand immediately (except of deregulation). I'm asking people that really have knowledge of argentine politics...

Actually, the rumors are against the official rate which is actually worse (better for you as you have dollars). There has been an increasing amount of predictions regarding a high devaluation after elections and more restrictions to use the credit cards in foreign exchange transactions (abroad and internet). Without the pressure of hitting a nerve on the public just before elections, they could go either way. I think they will increase the speed of devaluation even more and apply more restrictions against credit cards (perhaps putting a yearly limit on usd or increasing the tax to 30%).

This is a screenshot I just took showing the last 5 years of the USDARS rate and as you can see, the official rate has devaluated for more than 80% in that period of time and 24% of that happened this year. The speed is increasing rapidly and there doesn't seem that the government has any cards left to play. They are just receving bad news (like the vulture funds pressing for payment on US soil or the EU increasing a tax for argentina's biodiesel imports due to antidumping).

The reserves of the federal bank have been decreasing too at an alarming speed even with exchange controls.. so at this point I think it's a safe bet to say that the blue rate will continue increasing and will probably hit new highs. If I were you, I will hold on to that money and exchange only what I need.

 

[French jurist]

Agree with above.

Quite difficult to predict when. A few surprises should appear after the elections indeed.

Only certainties:
- the Blue won't go down (wow! what a prediction!)
- the Blue should mechanically go up between december 15 and december 31: "half-aguinaldo" is paid (a bonus on wages paid twice a year) + people needing USD to go on vacations.

 

[Rich One]

Dollar December 2013 $11.75, as a floor, on account of the Summer holidays dollar travel demand and the after Oct 27th. restrictions on dollar for tourism and Other unforeseen effects from the Elections results.

Chances of Blue going down.......?? nil.

Get out your crystal balls

 

[dennisr]

Furthermore, a foreign spending credit card cap will probably be implemented: Venezuelan style.

 

[ajoknoblauch]

Why do these measures always have the opposite effect of what the government intends?

 

[dennisr]

Why do these measures always have the opposite effect of what the government intends?

Like about every damn closed minded self appointed expert, they fail to understand the meaning of "unintended consequences": knock on effect.

 

[argsteve]

13 pesos .... in 3 or 4 months...... that is my 2 centavos

 

[Gringoboy]

We too have some items that need taking care of which in the light of reading this would be best left till November.