Dollar Blue Will Drop Like Stone

[Bajo_cero2]

The Blue rate is based on demand.

I disagre, the blue rate is based on speculation. The rise the price even there is no extra demand. Check that during 2 days there was no demand at all and the price falled like 5 cents and the strong political and afip presure forced the cartels who are the dollar blue to drop the price.

According to the website dollar blue, the parity between dollar and peso gives a price of 7.79. I think that this is the floor.

 

[Rich One]

The Blue rate is based on demand. Right now it is weak because of pressure on it , because of several factors. One , the harvests are coming in , providing dollars to growers. Two , people are not exchanging now , as most feel it will go back up. Three the major currency trading houses are still on a sort of freeze. Four the Central Bank and Anse , as well as large companies that deal in dollars are dumping them as fast as they can. All this has driven the price down.

But are there not July vacations coming up ? Mid year bonuses ? End of harvest ? Oh , and those elections......

As the K's want you to believe , it is NOT those cedin bonds.......

Si Si Si

The Cedin's or ·"Dolares para Todos" will go the same way as Bicicletas, Carne, Electrodomesticos, Ropa Para Todos...!! Not to mention the Supercard that now is pointless since Supermarket price controls are Over...!

 

[Joe]

The "Messi Dollar" will soon be know as the "Bajo Cero Dollar".

 

[Splitty]

Put down the bong Joe. Do you really think the Argentine government has fixed it's financial problems and everyone wants to save in dollars?

 

[GS_Dirtboy]

It depends upon whether traders see the item as a commodity (more supply = lower demand = lower price) or an asset (more supply = higher demand = higher price). For a good tutorial on buyer behavior one can study the US housing market from 2006 to 2008. Even the Federal Reserve admitted they mis-understood the buyer behavior and mis-priced Dollars with lower loan rates trying to avoid a bubble and actually created one - with the help of a couple of investment houses that profited even through the defaults.

It looks to me like the current Blue Dollar price is based more on speculative behavior than supply/demand. I will buy Dollars now because I think I can sell (flip) them in the near future for a much higher price. You can replace "Dollars" in this sentence with Gold, Houses, etc. You would have a hard time replacing "Dollars" with Soy, Corn, Cows, Cars, etc. Also, the published price of the Blue Dollar may not actually be the real price. If the "sell" price is 8 but no one is selling at 8 then the price really isn't 8. It is higher.

 

[cbonanni]

Put down the bong Joe. Do you really think the Argentine government has fixed it's financial problems and everyone wants to save in dollars?

Pesofication is not working. EVERYONE wants to save in dollars.

GS ,

Correct , but does not the speculation created a supply/demand situation ?

 

[Iznogud]

The Ks need solid facts to control peso depreciation than spreading rumors or jabbing at the blue for a few days while reality still contradicts them and doesn't bend to the rulling clique distorted fantasies.
Yes, the elections are coming but so are the cold (expensive fuel and energy imports) and the Winter break. This last one might likely push the blue demand for at least a short while.
All the current govenment talk about how "threatening" to the economy are the dollars kept in personal safe deposit boxes - not theirs, well of course - will likely turn to a few violent salideras when the word leaks that some old farts got scared and tried to move their life savings ellsewhere.
Instead of reassuring the population, these official statements do promote panic and encourage violent crime.
Way to go!
We've seen the authorities declare that crime was the victim's fault because they kept too much money at home. Now it turns out that keeping it at the bank is subversive. ..

 

[Rich One]

Should we follow the Advise of the TV star Economist Matias Tombolini? He said in then that whomever bought dollars at $·7 was crazy, same thing about purchases at $8 pesos. Then he stopped predicting
Shrewd traders go "in&out" realizing profits in the short term,

 

[GS_Dirtboy]

Pesofication is not working. EVERYONE wants to save in dollars.

GS ,

Correct , but does not the speculation created a supply/demand situation ?

Sure. It becomes a chicken/egg question. I think the question at hand is what is the main driver/influencer of the the price. I personally think it is speculation.

Which means I have finally succeeded in finding something that Bajo cero2 and I actually agree on.

 

[GS_Dirtboy]

I guess a clearer way to describe trading behavior is; Commodities: higher price = lower demand. Assets: higher price = higher demand.