Dollar Surplus 2021 - Argentina Major Crisis Vaca Muerta

[internationalguy]

LOL. Human behavior.

 

[Rich One]

I realized Kate didn't understand well the issue.

Anyhow even if the scenariio is not as drastic may well be that:

1. The peso stops depreciating
2. The Peso starts to appreciate slowly
3. The Blue rate vanishes due to surplus of dollars

 

[jackbower]

Alright GUY. I'm sure the lady can reply on her own...or do you think women are feeble souls who need to be protected from words on the internet? Besides, nothing wrong with what I said. She accused someone of being high on something, I'm asking if she herself is not. I'll wait to see if she is or not. Don't need or care for your butting in.

if you like instigating arguments with women on the internet, thats your prerogative. Im just not used to men verbally attacking women anywhere, be it the internet or elsewhere. Not sure where youre from, but where im from men dont talk to women like that. But keep it up, im sure someone will eventually put you in your place.

 

[jackbower]

I realized Kate didn't understand well the issue.

Anyhow even if the scenariio is not as drastic may well be that:

1. The peso stops depreciating
   
2. The Peso starts to appreciate slowly
   
3. The Blue rate vanishes due to surplus of dollars

Do you honestly see any of this happening?

 

[Joe]

If the greenback is still the world reserve currency in 2021 then I will be relieved.

 

[nicoenarg]

I realized Kate didn't understand well the issue.

Anyhow even if the scenariio is not as drastic may well be that:

1. The peso stops depreciating
   
2. The Peso starts to appreciate slowly
   
3. The Blue rate vanishes due to surplus of dollars

The only thing I see happening is the government stealing and wasting money like they've done before. Just because Argentina is getting more dollars going into the Central Bank doesn't mean all of a sudden those dollars are going to stay in.

Who's to say they won't start more "para todos" programs?

Look at Venezuela, its an OPEC member and it exports oil right now when we have some of the highest prices for oil ever. Venezuelan reserves on the other hand? Worse than Argentina's.

Wherever you have populist governments, they get worse as they get their hands on more money. Its not about, "how do we make the lives of the populace better", its about "how do we stay in power longer now that we have the means to affect people's opinions and votes".

 

[nicoenarg]

If the greenback is still the world reserve currency in 2021 then I will be relieved.

Any predictions against the dollar in the short term don't take into account the fact that no other currency exists that is considered as stable as the US dollar. Whether that is good or bad is a different debate.

There have been a lot of "the sky is falling" predictions since the 2008 crisis. We'll see what actually happens but so far the world keeps on betting on the dollar.

There have been statements from the Chinese to the effect of "we're dumping dollars!" but there's a reason no one takes the Chinese seriously. They have been known to say a lot without backing it up with actions.

 

[internationalguy]

Any predictions against the dollar in the short term don't take into account the fact that no other currency exists that is considered as stable as the US dollar. Whether that is good or bad is a different debate.

There have been a lot of "the sky is falling" predictions since the 2008 crisis. We'll see what actually happens but so far the world keeps on betting on the dollar.

There have been statements from the Chinese to the effect of "we're dumping dollars!" but there's a reason no one takes the Chinese seriously. They have been known to say a lot without backing it up with actions.

Stable? Have you seen its behavior in the last 8 years? I hate the fact that it will be gone, but it's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when. 2021? I don't see the dollar making it that far (as a reserve currency at least)

 

[nicoenarg]

Stable? Have you seen its behavior in the last 8 years? I hate the fact that it will be gone, but it's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when. 2021? I don't see the dollar making it that far (as a reserve currency at least)

I am talking about being stable in comparison, that is, as a reserve currency. It doesn't matter what perception people have of the dollar in isolation. The share of the US dollar as a reserve currency has actually been pretty stable, not only for the last 8 years but the last 12 years (currently it is at 1996 levels). And that is in part due to the fact that the Euro is so heavily affected by huge economies in Europe that everyone thinks are about to crash yesterday.

Now of course the argument is used that "the US economy will crash any day now". But that is not how different countries of the world see it.

Also the fact that oil production is booming in the US helps the US dollar as well.

PS: It has always been a matter of when, even when it became the reserve currency. It never has been and never will be a guaranteed position. That is why I was specifically addressing short term predictions, like 2021, etc. With that said though, I'm not an economist. I may very well be wrong, but the same goes for the opposing opinion.

 

[jackbower]

If the greenback is still the world reserve currency in 2021 then I will be relieved.

18 trillion in the hole and counting. The math just doesnt add up. I mean real math not bernanke QE monopoly money math.