Same point really. The same people who claim to be exasperated that Milei doesn't appear to have an economic plan were strangely silent when Alberto came out and publicly stated that he did not believe in economic plans.
It seems structural problems take time to fix. But as to whether the economy will improve in the near future, if I were you, I'd take Frank as the barometer. If he is already explaining away Milei's future success as being the result of Massa's policies, then we can all rest easy. He wouldn't be saying this if he wasn't confident that the economy will indeed turn around soon enough.
I hardly see myself as a barometer, though the word goes well with the phrase "raining Dollars"
. But the economic impact of the harvest has been flagged long in advance, since December, or earlier, no barometer or crystal ball needed:
The countryside expects the second best harvest in history and it is expected that in 2024 the sector will contribute USD 10,000 million more than this year. This is predicted by the Rosario Stock Exchange, from where a grain production of 137 million tons is expected to be generated during 2024 after registering an improvement in the climate.
Así lo prevé la Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario, desde donde se espera que durante el 2024 se genere una producción de granos de 137 millones de toneladas tras registrar una mejora en el clima
www.infobae.com
The central bank has been expecting Dollars since March, though there is the prospect of conflict with the agricultural sector regarding the exchange rate: BCRA, waiting for dollars from the countryside: will the official exchange rate be attractive to settle the harvest? The rains bring good news for soybean production, but the Government faces a challenge: convincing the field to liquidate the harvest with the current exchange rate.
Las lluvias traen buenas noticias para la producción de soja, pero el Gobierno enfrenta un desafío: convencer al campo de liquidar la cosecha con el tipo de cambio actual.
www.ambito.com
This from April: The dollars from the harvest arrive and the reserves approached USD 30,000 million. The advance is much slower than usual but the volume traded yesterday in the market, of almost USD 600 million, seems to mark a turning point
El avance es mucho más lento que el habitual pero el volumen operado ayer en el mercado, de casi USD 600 millones, parece marcar un punto de inflexión
www.infobae.com
The Dollars from the soyabean harvest were expected to arrive this month (May):
https://ruralrosario.org/detalle/2089/RECIEN-EN-MAYO-INGRESAN-LOS-DOLARES-DE-LA-COSECHA-DE-SOJA.html
Given that the seed purchases, and planting, took place under the conditions set by the last government (which may certainly not have been optimal, but getting the second-largest harvest in history suggests the conditions weren't too bad), it's hardly possible to claim that Milei has had anything to do with this. If Massa had won, the rain of Dollars would also have happened.
Nonetheless, Milei will take the credit. Worse, it will provide him with ammunition for his dollarization fetish.
I don't understand why, if you knew this was going to happen anyway, would you ramp up inflation, destroy people's incomes, increase costs, like electricity, gas, petrol, medical insurance, public transport... when all the money you need is going to arrive in 6 months or so?
