Food prices are amongst the highest of the planet

[Alby]

Milei will never be successful. The who hate him are already putting his future success down to the brilliant work of Massa setting for the scene for the agricultural revival he will benefit from. Those who claim to care that a president put in a full day's work and criticize Milei for not doing so were strangely silent on the same subject during the four years of Alberto's slothful and drunken reign.

What would success look like for Milei haters?
People who wish Argentina would crash and burn just because they dislike the democratically elected president are evil

 

[perry]

No. Why would I?
And why would you make a point about 300%ish interannual inflation (e.g. April 23 to April 24...) versus a point about paritarias since January 24?


Glad to see you have some common sense. (And of course if that fixed - or earned - income in dollars or euros is at any moment not enough to meet peso denominated prices in Argentina then the third option remains very much an open invitation to

Milei will never be successful. The who hate him are already putting his future success down to the brilliant work of Massa setting for the scene for the agricultural revival he will benefit from. Those who claim to care that a president put in a full day's work and criticize Milei for not doing so were strangely silent on the same subject during the four years of Alberto's slothful and drunken reign.

I have been critical for many years but what Argentina is gping through now has never ever been done before and its effects are brutal to say the least . Please Alby and Antipodean can you explain in laymans terms what is the economic plan of Milei amd how will the economy improve in the near future . I await your comments

 

[FrankPintor]

Welcome back, Alby.

 

[Alby]

I have been critical for many years but what Argentina is gping through now has never ever been done before and its effects are brutal to say the least . Please Alby and Antipodean can you explain in laymans terms what is the economic plan of Milei amd how will the economy improve in the near future . I await your comments

Same point really. The same people who claim to be exasperated that Milei doesn't appear to have an economic plan were strangely silent when Alberto came out and publicly stated that he did not believe in economic plans.

It seems structural problems take time to fix. But as to whether the economy will improve in the near future, if I were you, I'd take Frank as the barometer. If he is already explaining away Milei's future success as being the result of Massa's policies, then we can all rest easy. He wouldn't be saying this if he wasn't confident that the economy will indeed turn around soon enough.

 

[antipodean]

What would success look like for Milei haters?

Good question. I for one am still waiting for such people to articulate what success for Argentina would look like independent of who is at the helm.

I have been critical for many years but what Argentina is gping through now has never ever been done before and its effects are brutal to say the least . Please Alby and Antipodean can you explain in laymans terms what is the economic plan of Milei amd how will the economy improve in the near future . I await your comments

Another very abstract quote of a post of mine with nothing to do with the question being raised, seems I also missed this conversation linking the two (perhaps it will appear as a faux-screenshot later on...)

Perry, the "plan" of Milei, at least what I can see, is as such: Win enough friendly seats in the mid-terms and start pushing through more drastic economic reforms spelled out in his agenda designed to let people and businesses earn/ spend/ save/ invest or squander their money as they see fit similar to any other open economy, while ensuring the state does not spend money beyond its means. In the meantime the plan appears to be what is contained in the Ley de Bases package (e.g. what they can get across the line) and juggling the mess that is and was Argentina to keep inflation as low as possible which is the single biggest issue affecting the poor over the past years, continuing to increase social welfare payments to the poor, trimming expenses he doesn't like, keeping exchange rates as stable as possible and perhaps lifting the CEPO (capital controls limiting how you can earn, invest and spend your or your businesses money) to kick-start some economic indicators in order to arrive at the mid-terms on a viable platform.

Economic improvements in the near future (assuming you mean 1-12 months?) will continue to depend on who you are... where you get your money from and how much you get. The brutality of this economic reality in Argentina has existed for decades with only the scale changing from one year to the next. At some point, probably next year, we will likely start to see a "boom" as commodity prices increase and the country launders its dirty money as tends to happen every decade or so.

I am wary of anyone who pitches a fairytale ending for everyone (or indeed that the past was a fairytale) is just doing politics, and anyone who believes in fairytale endings for everyone (or that they existed in the past) is a gil - we are living in a Latin American country in 2024 and will still be living in a Latin American country in 2034 with all the inherent problems of a Latin American country and our times. I am also wary of anyone who thinks Argentines can be "regulated" into doing what a government wants for the economy - Argentines love rules because they love to bend them and find ways around them - unfortunately it is an expensive, eternal and self-defeating exercise to persist down this path. If these major reforms happen, and society maintains this new "liberal" trajectory for more than one term then in a few years life will almost certainly be much better for some as new opportunities are created, confidence grows and power is redistributed by the state simply interfering less. And of course, for some others life will more or less as crappy as it is now (and was yesterday) - hopefully however with access to credit and without inflation at the very least to have some shot at social mobility.

Now maybe Perry, you can answer AussieSurfer's question - what would success look like for you?

 

[perry]

Good question. I for one am still waiting for such people to articulate what success for Argentina would look like independent of who is at the helm.


Another very abstract quote of a post of mine with nothing to do with the question being raised, seems I also missed this conversation linking the two (perhaps it will appear as a faux-screenshot later on...)

Perry, the "plan" of Milei, at least what I can see, is as such: Win enough friendly seats in the mid-terms and start pushing through more drastic economic reforms spelled out in his agenda designed to let people and businesses earn/ spend/ save/ invest or squander their money as they see fit similar to any other open economy, while ensuring the state does not spend money beyond its means. In the meantime the plan appears to be what is contained in the Ley de Bases package (e.g. what they can get across the line) and juggling the mess that is and was Argentina to keep inflation as low as possible which is the single biggest issue affecting the poor over the past years, continuing to increase social welfare payments to the poor, trimming expenses he doesn't like, keeping exchange rates as stable as possible and perhaps lifting the CEPO (capital controls limiting how you can earn, invest and spend your or your businesses money) to kick-start some economic indicators in order to arrive at the mid-terms on a viable platform.

Economic improvements in the near future (assuming you mean 1-12 months?) will continue to depend on who you are... where you get your money from and how much you get. The brutality of this economic reality in Argentina has existed for decades with only the scale changing from one year to the next. At some point, probably next year, we will likely start to see a "boom" as commodity prices increase and the country launders its dirty money as tends to happen every decade or so.

I am wary of anyone who pitches a fairytale ending for everyone (or indeed that the past was a fairytale) is just doing politics, and anyone who believes in fairytale endings for everyone (or that they existed in the past) is a gil - we are living in a Latin American country in 2024 and will still be living in a Latin American country in 2034 with all the inherent problems of a Latin American country and our times. I am also wary of anyone who thinks Argentines can be "regulated" into doing what a government wants for the economy - Argentines love rules because they love to bend them and find ways around them - unfortunately it is an expensive, eternal and self-defeating exercise to persist down this path. If these major reforms happen, and society maintains this new "liberal" trajectory for more than one term then in a few years life will almost certainly be much better for some as new opportunities are created, confidence grows and power is redistributed by the state simply interfering less. And of course, for some others life will more or less as crappy as it is now (and was yesterday) - hopefully however with access to credit and without inflation at the very least to have some shot at social mobility.

Now maybe Perry, you can answer AussieSurfer's question - what would success look like for you?

What I do not understand by you supporters is that all of the policies that you promote are anti capitalism and more akin to communism than a free market . What is being done in Argentina at the moment is a experiment that has never ever been implemented before on a western society . Its like taking a country back to ground zero and then expectly miracuously it will become economically rich and viable . This is so contrary to basic economics . This mantra that so many have been brainwashed here with that there is no hay plata is so laugable as Argentina earns in foreign currencies for its resources many billions of dollars per year . Add on the tremendous tourism market we had until 6 months ago many billions of dollars that was funnelled through to the general population who benefited in shopping, restaurants , travel , tours , accomodation and the list go on . Tourism is one of the biggest earners for a country and Greece a country I am familiar with got out of its economic difficulties from just that tourism being the leading country per capita for tourism in the world . What Milei and his flawed economic policies have done have destroyed the tourism market by making it so expensive for travel as well as having a depressed vibe due to the huge economic crisis that we are living in now . Many people I speak to in Europe also look in horror at the comments of the president that spends his days attacking the presidents of Colombia , Brazil , Mexico , Spain and China , I have noticed no chinese tourists at all this year and this was a growing market until Mileis accension . Greece while still suffering from social equalities does not have the povertty of Argentina and its on the road to recovery and certainly will reach Ireland in less than 35 years . Greece also has no natural resources only its human capital and tourism which is the biggest earner of hard currency for local people in any country . Thailand Vietnam have been transformed by this market and Argentina was heading in this direction but now all stalled . How is this beneficial for the economy ?
I wish greatly for Argentina to prosper for its citizens , What I see now is that our resources will be sold at pennies to the dollar and the control of these resources given to foriegn interests with very little benefit to the citizen . Yes allowing flexible trade is important but this must be done with a responsable fiscal policy that keeps the society in check . Argentina and its provinces offer some of the most beautiful landscapes of the planet and they have infinite value . Not giving any money to the pronvinces is very dangerous and could set up a succession movement in Argentina that could create the balkanization of the country .

I suggest that you read the Shock doctrine by Naomi Klein and the parallels to what we are living today are very telling to say the least . 40% are willing to believe in these changes but every day these figures dwindle as the realization of ones situation makes one come to his senses . There is plata in Argentina when they need to spend it for overseas trips and obselete military planes . To deny human beings of their dignity by withholding 5000 tons of food in warehouses is something I have never ever seen before in my life . If this was Australia literally 10s of thousands of people would be demonstrating against the government if they tried to pull this off . I grew in Australia and my family were very well connected to politics in that country . We lived through many periods but what Argentina is living through now has never ever been even felt by even 5% of Australian people !

 

[antipodean]

So Perry, what does success look like for you?

Add on the tremendous tourism market we had until 6 months ago many billions of dollars that was funnelled through to the general population who benefited in shopping, restaurants , travel , tours , accomodation and the list go on

As for foreign tourism, so far in 2024 the industry is on track to employing 1.500.000 people and Argentina is receiving record numbers of foreign tourists in March for example foreign receptive tourism is up 26.7% vs last year while Argentines traveling abroad is down by 1.6% - more foreign arrivals than 6 months ago, not less - despite the mantra of “food prices being amongst the most expensive on the planet”. To me it appears that some blindly rabid opponents of this government (and I’m sure any other government in their place not aligned with their personal ideals) are not looking further than their own noses and are choosing to ignore hard data, blindly like and accept opinions that "sound about right" to their feelings as "news", choosing to ignore first hand experiences contrary to their own limited understandings and choosing to create and overly miserable “reality” that simply has to apply to “everyone”.

Now if you’re looking for a “perfect” country that checks all the boxes for everyone then Argentina will not and has never been it and I’m not seeing anyone on this forum saying or implying that Argentina under Milei is now suddenly all rainbows and kittens and that it will be any time soon.

I was just in a café selling $4+ coffees and it was packed with a line waiting to get a table as it has been every morning this year, and last year - does that mean Argentina is fixed any more than an empty café on Santa Fe meaning that Argentina is doomed? As an Argentine business owner I can say that for me, my employees, my customers and my providers at least economic life goes on and I greatly appreciate that today, like for the past decade, this is not the same reality shared by everyone nor do I have any delusion that it will be any time soon.

 

[lunar]

As for foreign tourism, so far in 2024 the industry is on track to employing 1.500.000 people and Argentina is receiving record numbers of foreign tourists in March for example foreign receptive tourism is up 26.7% vs last year ...

Here is the lead paragraph from the article you quoted.

Los arribos de enero superaron 23 por ciento a los del mismo período del año pasado mientras que las llegadas de febrero crecieron 10 por ciento interanual.

Or in English

January arrivals exceeded those of the same period last year by 23 percent, while February arrivals grew by 10 percent year-over-year.

For someone with a basic knowledge of math, this means that tourism numbers were increasing by about 2% monthly over last year, but they plummeted by about 9% in February 2024 right after the Milei election. However, I don't expect you to understand it.

 

[Quilombo]

Well said, all around, but as to the last sentence of your post, why would you be surprised?

Oh, I'm not surprised Red, I just think it's funny he couldn't even let the grift wait a year or so, and is in the US as we speak rubbing shoulders with billionaires who will never invest here.

What would success look like for Milei haters? Almost every category of food from beef to fried chicken is significantly cheaper here than the rest of the world
OK, I admit, rice is slightly more dear. (20 cents per kilo) and Thai food is expensive. So are we just a cheap Pad Thai away from y'all admitting Milei is doing well ?
People who wish Argentina would crash and burn just because they dislike the democratically elected president are evil

Here are just a few things he could do, many in a libertarian vein that I don't even agree with per se, but are aligned with what he ran on:

- Stop the trips abroad for things other than critical meetings like the UN, G20, IMF/AIIB, COP, etc.
- Get off of Twitter, he's the president, not one of his digital troll army members
- Accept that he doesn't have a majority, and he needs to compromise in Congress
- Shit or get off the pot: lay out a clear plan, with dates and deadlines as to what the future of the peso is. Businesses, markets, and people hate uncertainty and it makes it difficult to invest
- Set a date for the expiration of the cepo/unification of exchange rates, similar reasoning to the above
- Fire his sister, his spokesman's brother, and every other nepotism position
- Actually pass on the "adjustment" to the caste - change ganancias so they target people making X times the canasta basica so actually wealthy people pay the tax, and increase taxes on people like the Kirchners, Serigo Berni, and Macris that own multiple properties, you know, the actual caste
- Double the minimum wage (in Argentina, this can/is done by executive order) and peg it and retiree payments for the lowest percentiles to inflation
- Reform withholdings on agro exports so that taxes don't punitively target the companies and people that generate us dollars
- Open imports at 0% tariffs on items in the canasta basica to destroy the foodstuffs mafia that have benefitted from protectionism

As to food prices, again, you're comparing apples to oranges: food prices for chicken for example can be cheap compared to the rest of the world, but if Argentine salaries are incredibly depressed then they can't buy any. $5 for a combo at a fast food joint may seem like a steal when it would be $12 in the US, but millions of Argentines make literally less than a dollar an hour, so you can't compare the two.

As to wishing him success/to fail, I have yet to seen anyone yet say they want Milei to fail at the expense of Argentines, but rather, like my belief, they think he is failing, but still want to be proven wrong so Argentines don't suffer.

Same point really. The same people who claim to be exasperated that Milei doesn't appear to have an economic plan were strangely silent when Alberto came out and publicly stated that he did not believe in economic plans.

I encourage anyone to go through my post history and see me bitching about Alberto on this specific topic, and several others who agreed with me then, saying it was an asinine thing to say, and a symptom of larger incompetence. Alberto didn't believe in economic plans, and Milei doesn't stick to them. We're 6 months in and there's no signs of dollarization, or the cepo/brecha going away, the BCRA doesn't appear to be in any danger, and aside from some bread from Brazil, I don't see many imports, so Meet the new boss, same as the old boss in some ways.

 

[antipodean]

Here is the lead paragraph from the article you quoted.

Or in English

For someone with a basic knowledge of math, this means that tourism numbers were increasing by about 2% monthly over last year, but they plummeted by about 9% in February 2024 right after the Milei election. However, I don't expect you to understand it.

Do you understand the concept of seasonality? If so, would you not consider it relevant to tourism?

E.g. February always has less tourism than January, and March less than February in Argentina.

Here is a nice graph to help illustrate this complex concept.

That is why year on year is used instead of month on month:
"January arrivals were 23 percent higher than the same period last year while February arrivals grew 10 percent year-on-year."