We cannot really say there is a recession until WE ARE IN one. And it takes usually 6 months into the recession to REALLY know we are in one. So we should revisit this again sometime soon. Anyhoo... the word recession somehow have been this BAD word when it really is not. Since the last world war US has had 6 recessions, a self-correcting economic phenomenon every 10 years. And it is just a recession - not a depression, so as long as one has liquid assets ( lots of disposable income, spending dough, ) - there is nothing to fear but fear itself, as one famous "dude" once said.
And as long as the world is shrinking into this one small global economic village , just when one dude sneezes in Europe, an Asian guy catches the cold - that sort of thing. One way or another, it has a ripple effect - so when one economy is in jeopardy we should all rally together and help each other out coz it will eventually affect us, one way or another, sooner or later.
Arguably not very profoundly. Commodity prices are at record prices and Argentina is a major commodity exporter. The ones who are suffering, and shall continue to do so, are countries like the UK and US, which have been making their living from speculative bubbles like inflated equity prices and inflated real estate prices.
Also take a look at a piece by Soros in today's FT: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/24f73610-c91e-11dc-9807-000077b07658.html
Although a recession in the developed world is now more or less inevitable, China, India and some of the oil-producing countries are in a very strong countertrend. So, the current financial crisis is less likely to cause a global recession than a radical realignment of the global economy, with a relative decline of the US and the rise of China and other countries in the developing world.
The world is in a recession right now and soon it's going to be a depression. Some would argue that it started with the sub-prime/credit freeze in August or that it started official this year 2008 with the stock market crashes.
This economic forum is very good to follow the latest development and get advice on how to not get too screwed by the recession/depression.
Regarding what will happen here in Argentina I have no clue, but I'm curios on what's going to happen if the dollar goes to zero.
Is the 1 to 3 ration between the dollar and the peso going to change?
At a deep level, yes, the root causes are the same: neoliberalism and financialisation of national and global economies, crafted by the "Chicago Boys" (disciples of that worthless idiot, Milton Friedman, the pox on his soul), which have held sway for the last thirty years. Otherwise known as "free market fundamentalism," which has provided an ideological fig leaf to plunder on a scale that makes a buccaneer like Henry Morgan look like a naughty boy caught with his hand in the cookie jar.
"I would not blame everything on Milton Friedman with friends. The problem is more with central banking and that money is debt."
Hear, hear. As a former historian, I quite agree.
"Maybe in the future we can live without central banking... *hope*"
A vain hope, I fear, but one I share with you.
Maybe I do not have all the needed info to follow your trail of thought but...why would the absence of central banking be a goodthing, RWS?
And smartypants, what really did happen to Argentina, if you can share that theory maybe I can understand what the UK and the US is going thru right now. I for one would like to have all pertinent info that are out there, before making more stock purchases for 08.