Bajo_cero2
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New is in pesos.
Good Time To Buy An Apartment?
- Thread starter Reinaldo
- Start date
New is in pesos.
toongeorges
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The dollar reserves of the central bank are half what they were in January 2011. If Argentina keeps bleeding dollars at this rate, we may have another default in about 3 years from now. To stop the dollar bleeding, Argentina would have to drop the currency controls and devalue the peso to the blue rate.
In three years from now, everyone will have forgotten about the world cup and olympics in Brazil, except Brazil's economy will be under strain to pay off the debt needed to organise these events. Brazil may devalue its currency to improve its budget. Argentina will need to stay competitive with Brazil.
I think Argentina may be headed for a currency crash within 5 years. I would only buy property after such a crash or if somehow things clear up. I really wish for Argentinians that my fears are wrong and the economy will clear up. Though somehow I am not confident in the government's capabilities.
In three years from now, everyone will have forgotten about the world cup and olympics in Brazil, except Brazil's economy will be under strain to pay off the debt needed to organise these events. Brazil may devalue its currency to improve its budget. Argentina will need to stay competitive with Brazil.
I think Argentina may be headed for a currency crash within 5 years. I would only buy property after such a crash or if somehow things clear up. I really wish for Argentinians that my fears are wrong and the economy will clear up. Though somehow I am not confident in the government's capabilities.
Redpossum
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If you look at today's news, Argentina actually threatened to default if the US Supreme Court does not find in their favor in the case of the vulture funds. Again. A quick search reveals that this threat has been made before.
While at the same time, Kicillof began talks today with the Club de Paris. "Hey, loan us more money! What, default? Noooo, we never said anything about defaulting, you must be confusing us with, umm, err, Colombia, yes, that's right!"
We live in interesting times.
While at the same time, Kicillof began talks today with the Club de Paris. "Hey, loan us more money! What, default? Noooo, we never said anything about defaulting, you must be confusing us with, umm, err, Colombia, yes, that's right!"
We live in interesting times.
Joe
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I've lived in a number of new apartments in Baires and they were all terrible. There is no sound insulation so anytime someone drops a coin or takes off their shoes, or even tinkles you hear it. You will even know your neighbors love making schedule.The newer the building the thinner the walls. I would never consider a new place unless it was the top floor and even then you will still need to put in sound insulation for any neighbors you have at great expense. The best buildings are 1950s and before. The worse are 2000 and after.
ArielFabian
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I agree with the very bad quality.New stuff in pesos implies risks:
Very bad quality or the promised quality does not match with the resulting stuff, it might be scheduled for 3 years and take 7 (occurred to a close relative in a dollar investment, he has chosen a very prestigious investment around Puerto Madero zone) or never, because of the high inflation in pesos there might be many disputes.
Also less likely:
a worker might die in the work (relatives might ask for $ and company might bankrupt). I heard about a couple of cases, and saw the buildings that took like 20 years to finish.
Historically new real estate to build cost 60%-80% of the end price. (% depending on the constructor company reputation, opportunity, etc).
I think it is better to buy something built and check the quality of the construction
mariano-BCN
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Well, that's not true: I'm renting now a beautiful studio in San Telmo for 360 dollars a month, all equipped, with expensas (624 pesos) and light on top. This is temporary RENTING.
Another issue is buying, and I'm saying sell-prices are far too high for the quality of houses AND taking into consideration this city is NOT a first class city.
Joe
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That's a good deal. I'd be interested in taking that apartment once you find your dream condo!
Matiasba
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IMHO the market is frozen now, so yes, its a good time to buy. BUT, I expect the situation will get even better, I expect recession, sooner or later, if its not this government will be the next one, cause you just cant grow indefinetely, we have now 11 years of growth and economy works in cycles, so when recession comes it is the time, nobody has money, people eager for dollars, etc.
MANY SEE POST-KIRCHNER BOOM IN ARGENTINA (The Miami Herald)
By Andres Oppenheimer
28 May 2014
At a meeting with a group of prominent economists here this week, I heard something I hadn’t heard in more than a decade from any serious person — that Argentina is on the verge of an economic boom.
The prediction was made by former Central Bank President Alfonso Prat Gay, a highly respected economist who — like a growing number of experts — expects this country to take off once the disastrous government of President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner leaves office after the October 2015 elections.
Towards the end of his presentation, Prat Gay summed up his projections with a two-sentence slide that read, “short run: pain,” “long run: boom.”
I later found out that Prat Gay is far from alone in expecting Argentina to rise again after next year’s elections, among other things because the country will receive a huge windfall from new shale oil and gas reserves, and all major presidential candidates are more responsible and likely to attract more investments than Fernández de Kirchner.
Over the past eleven years, Fernández de Kirchner and her late husband, former President Nestor Kirchner, have squandered — through a combination of politically targeted cash subsidies and massive corruption — his country’s biggest commodity bonanza in recent history.
Argentina, a major exporter of soybeans and other commodities, benefited like few other countries from China’s commodity imports in recent years. But after a few years of an economic fiesta in which subsidized almost everything, instead of investing in education, health and infrastructure, the country is in a shambles.
Today, Argentina’s inflation is at 33 percent a year — only second in the region after Venezuela’s. Also, foreign reserves have dropped to four months worth of imports, and the economy is in a virtual recession.
But most independent economists, political analysts and business leaders cite several motives to be optimistic about the economy in the post-Kirchner era
They say it’s no coincidence that Argentina’s stock market has risen 74 percent in dollar terms over the past twelve months: big investors are already looking past the Kirchner era, and anticipating much better times starting in 2016
The stock market’s turnaround started after the last mid-term elections, in which President Fernández’s party was soundly defeated, and it became clear that she would not be able to change the constitution and get herself reelected to a third term.
Among the reasons for optimism cited by most economists:
• All the major candidates for next year’s elections are promising a shift away from the populist policies that have scared domestic and foreign investors, who in recent years have put their savings in Uruguay and Miami real estate projects.
• At the same time, Argentina will start getting huge foreign investments to develop the Vaca Muerta shale gas and oil reserves, which is the world’s second-largest shale gas reserve after China’s, and the world’s fourth-largest shale oil reserve.
These huge reserves will not only solve Argentina’s energy problem for the next 200 years, but will generate a new source of foreign income, economists stay.
• In addition, Argentina will continue being a major exporter of soybeans to China for the foreseeable future, economists say.
While China’s economic slowdown is affecting South American commodity exporters such as Chile and Peru, which export copper and other construction materials to China, it has not significantly affected Argentina’s soybean exports to China. The Chinese may be building fewer roads and bridges, but they will not stop eating.
“This, we never had before,” former Central Banker Prat Gay said, referring to the newly found shale oil and gas reserves, as well as the other factors that are likely to help Argentina’s economy.
“If we are going to screw this one up, it will be a massive screw-up,” he said. “I don’t believe we can be as stupid as to allow this one to slip away from our fingers.”
My opinion: Argentina is the land of missed opportunities, where populist governments over the past six decades have managed to turn one of the world’s richest countries into a text-book case of economic decline.
I’m afraid that Argentina’s only chance to escape from its deeply ingrained populist mindset will be to create a constitutional straitjacket to prevent future presidents from misspending the country’s income.
For instance, Argentina could do what Norway did with oil, or Chile with copper, and constitutionally earmark a percentage of its upcoming shale oil and gas exports, as well as its soybean export income, to fund quality education and infrastructure.
If it does that, Argentina could become the new star of Latin America’s economy before the end of this decade.
By Andres Oppenheimer
28 May 2014
At a meeting with a group of prominent economists here this week, I heard something I hadn’t heard in more than a decade from any serious person — that Argentina is on the verge of an economic boom.
The prediction was made by former Central Bank President Alfonso Prat Gay, a highly respected economist who — like a growing number of experts — expects this country to take off once the disastrous government of President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner leaves office after the October 2015 elections.
Towards the end of his presentation, Prat Gay summed up his projections with a two-sentence slide that read, “short run: pain,” “long run: boom.”
I later found out that Prat Gay is far from alone in expecting Argentina to rise again after next year’s elections, among other things because the country will receive a huge windfall from new shale oil and gas reserves, and all major presidential candidates are more responsible and likely to attract more investments than Fernández de Kirchner.
Over the past eleven years, Fernández de Kirchner and her late husband, former President Nestor Kirchner, have squandered — through a combination of politically targeted cash subsidies and massive corruption — his country’s biggest commodity bonanza in recent history.
Argentina, a major exporter of soybeans and other commodities, benefited like few other countries from China’s commodity imports in recent years. But after a few years of an economic fiesta in which subsidized almost everything, instead of investing in education, health and infrastructure, the country is in a shambles.
Today, Argentina’s inflation is at 33 percent a year — only second in the region after Venezuela’s. Also, foreign reserves have dropped to four months worth of imports, and the economy is in a virtual recession.
But most independent economists, political analysts and business leaders cite several motives to be optimistic about the economy in the post-Kirchner era
They say it’s no coincidence that Argentina’s stock market has risen 74 percent in dollar terms over the past twelve months: big investors are already looking past the Kirchner era, and anticipating much better times starting in 2016
The stock market’s turnaround started after the last mid-term elections, in which President Fernández’s party was soundly defeated, and it became clear that she would not be able to change the constitution and get herself reelected to a third term.
Among the reasons for optimism cited by most economists:
• All the major candidates for next year’s elections are promising a shift away from the populist policies that have scared domestic and foreign investors, who in recent years have put their savings in Uruguay and Miami real estate projects.
• At the same time, Argentina will start getting huge foreign investments to develop the Vaca Muerta shale gas and oil reserves, which is the world’s second-largest shale gas reserve after China’s, and the world’s fourth-largest shale oil reserve.
These huge reserves will not only solve Argentina’s energy problem for the next 200 years, but will generate a new source of foreign income, economists stay.
• In addition, Argentina will continue being a major exporter of soybeans to China for the foreseeable future, economists say.
While China’s economic slowdown is affecting South American commodity exporters such as Chile and Peru, which export copper and other construction materials to China, it has not significantly affected Argentina’s soybean exports to China. The Chinese may be building fewer roads and bridges, but they will not stop eating.
“This, we never had before,” former Central Banker Prat Gay said, referring to the newly found shale oil and gas reserves, as well as the other factors that are likely to help Argentina’s economy.
“If we are going to screw this one up, it will be a massive screw-up,” he said. “I don’t believe we can be as stupid as to allow this one to slip away from our fingers.”
My opinion: Argentina is the land of missed opportunities, where populist governments over the past six decades have managed to turn one of the world’s richest countries into a text-book case of economic decline.
I’m afraid that Argentina’s only chance to escape from its deeply ingrained populist mindset will be to create a constitutional straitjacket to prevent future presidents from misspending the country’s income.
For instance, Argentina could do what Norway did with oil, or Chile with copper, and constitutionally earmark a percentage of its upcoming shale oil and gas exports, as well as its soybean export income, to fund quality education and infrastructure.
If it does that, Argentina could become the new star of Latin America’s economy before the end of this decade.
