Goodbye To The Cepo

[wineguy999]

Obviously, you guys are picking on bajo_cero. This is sad - Its a plus to have a local sucessful immigration lawyer participating on this forum..albeit also winning clients from here in the process.

But can not fathom so much negativity for him.

I guess, the best way is " Lets agree to disagree" or " I have noted what you said. here is my opinion though..blah blah blah"

Heellloooo..can be condescending..agreed.

Sorry for derailing the thread with my original comment, however...

The good "doctor" is an absolute a$$, often when it is completely uncalled for. Anyone who is so condescending and demeaning to others on a regular basis is open to ridicule as strenuously and as often as possible, as far as I'm concerned.

And, as far as him picking up a client or two here...I have met two people who used his services. Get ready...he treats his (paying) clients with the same type of attitude he displays on this forum. I pity anyone who pays for that sort of abuse.

 

[jbhenson]

Sorry for derailing the thread with my original comment, however...

The good "doctor" is an absolute a$$, often when it is completely uncalled for. Anyone who is so condescending and demeaning to others on a regular basis is open to ridicule as strenuously and as often as possible, as far as I'm concerned.

And, as far as him picking up a client or two here...I have met two people who used his services. Get ready...he treats his (paying) clients with the same type of attitude he displays on this forum. I pity anyone who pays for that sort of abuse.

Sadist exist because there are many masochist are out there who love it! Some will pay for it!

 

[Ceviche]

Bajo cero treats his (paying) clients with the same type of attitude he displays on this forum. I pity anyone who pays for that sort of abuse.

That, I am sorry to admit, is 100% true. Friends who have used his services claimed 100% results as promised by him..but they did admit that they were treated like 'mierda'.

 

[nicoenarg]

Damn. The environment on here is increasingly contentious. Maybe we can try and get back to the actual topic and not worry about bajo_cero2 who hasn't even written a single post on this topic yet.

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Prat-Gay and Macri have both mentioned this in interviews that "the cepo was a bad idea that doesn't make sense but it makes even less sense when there are no dollars in Banco Central". Things are going to become more clear December 11th. However if the situation is the way Macri and his team think it is then all the restrictions may be lifted. Banks and casas de cambio will just have to turn customers away because "no hay dolares".

I think this will result in the illegal dollar market surviving and thriving though because people with dollars will want to sell their dollars at a higher perceived rate than the one on the legal market (or whatever Banco Central decides) and those who want access to dollars will be willing to pay a higher price just to be able to get the dollars.

Situation will slowly change probably but things aren't going to get normalized even if the cepo is completely lifted on December 11th.

 

[ben]

"No hay dólares" is not an option. Importers need a rate to buy dollars. Airlines need a rate to buy dollars. Exporters need a rate to sell dollars.

The fiction of two rates could be maintained for as long as the Banco Central could sell any dollars at all at the lower rate. Once the Banco Central has no dollars of its own to set a price for, the house of cards collapses.

The Banco Central will have to go along with the blue rate, there is no other option. An immediate adjustment in rate is a really bad idea - living prices will adjust drastically and you'll have the ones who caused all this gloating 'I told you so' - but there simply is no choice, absent an immediate injection of liquidity which may be expected to come from exactly nowhere.

 

[nicoenarg]

"No hay dólares" is not an option. Importers need a rate to buy dollars. Airlines need a rate to buy dollars. Exporters need a rate to sell dollars. And once the Banco Central has no dollars of its own to set a price for, the house of cards collapses.

The Banco Central will have to go along with the blue rate, there is no other option. An immediate adjustment in rate is a really bad idea but there simply is no choice, absent an immediate injection of liquidity which may be expected to come from exactly nowhere.

Sure its not generally an option but if Banco Central has nothing to sell on December 11th then that is the only option for them. They can't print them, neither can they invent another currency in its place (no one wants to trade with pesos). Macri is thinking that farmers will export as soon as he assumes the presidency and dollars will come flowing in. That is a lot of "hope" that I am pretty skeptical about until I actually see it happen.

EDIT:

I agree with you about folks needing a rate but we still have Vanoli. He's still going to be there on the 11th. Until he's removed we're still going to have to live with a lot of confusing BS.

 

[jbhenson]

Sure its not generally an option but if Banco Central has nothing to sell on December 11th then that is the only option for them. They can't print them, neither can they invent another currency in its place (no one wants to trade with pesos). Macri is thinking that farmers will export as soon as he assumes the presidency and dollars will come flowing in. That is a lot of "hope" that I am pretty skeptical about until I actually see it happen.

History does show that when FREE TRADE is allowed, and obsticles preventing free trade are eliminated, the market then flourishes!

Wouldnt you agree?

 

[ben]

Sure its not generally an option but if Banco Central has nothing to sell on December 11th then that is the only option for them. They can't print them, neither can they invent another currency in its place (no one wants to trade with pesos). Macri is thinking that farmers will export as soon as he assumes the presidency and dollars will come flowing in. That is a lot of "hope" that I am pretty skeptical about until I actually see it happen.

I revised my post to make things a bit clearer. The option available - the only option - is that the Central simply follows the blue rate - essentially operating as a cueva, albeit one that has first dibs on any legal commerce - until it has enough dollars to be able to set a rate and policy of its own.

A lot of Macri's work is in PR - to successfully assign blame in the eyes of enough Argentines, many of whom simply are not financially educated enough to understand the premise, where it belongs - the government that sacked the head of the Banco Central and installed a head of its choosing, who allowed the government to loot the reserves to pay its debt. Outright theft.

 

[nicoenarg]

History does show that when FREE TRADE is allowed, and obsticles preventing free trade are eliminated, the market then flourishes!

Wouldnt you agree?

I personally prefer the free market system, however, I don't think the adjustment is going to go over well with people here. A lot of the times what works in one place doesn't always work in another (e.g. "democracy" and the Middle East). So in the case of Argentina I think just randomly making huge changes (introducing the cepo like a boludo...and then later removing the cepo without giving any thought to the short term consequences) is a dangerous game to play.

With the opposition already painting Macri as Menem/Satan incarnate I would hope he treads carefully while sticking to the promises he made (for which he was elected).

 

[ben]

I personally prefer the free market system, however, I don't think the adjustment is going to go over well with people here. A lot of the times what works in one place doesn't always work in another (i.e. "democracy" and the Middle East). So in the case of Argentina I think just randomly making huge changes (introducing the cepo like a boludo...and then later removing the cepo without giving any thought to the short term consequences) is a dangerous game to play.

With the opposition already painting Macri as Menem/Satan incarnate I would hope he treads carefully while sticking to the promises he made (for which he was elected).

It's a mighty dangerous game to play - but there simply is no other game. The BCRA is broke. The state energy company cannot get the dollars to buy a tanker of oil it itself ordered. The bank is broke.

They've robbed every last penny that was there for the robbing. And they are happy to let Macri take over now.