Goodbye To The Cepo

I was quoted 120 pesos for a pack of 20 ordinary balloons yesterday in Mataderos. I almost foamed at the mouth before politely telling the old buzzard behind the counter that the price was too high for my liking. I can't make head nor tails of it all. This place is already seriously expensive and yet as the peso dollar rate continues to slide, prices (i guess in anticipation of the cepo being lifted) continue to rise. I wonder how many everyday products will suddenly rise alongside the official dollar as the cepo is lifted.

I think that a portion of what constitutes a price-hike is speculation by opportunistic sellers. Mercadolibre is a prime example of some folks just making up prices and justifying exorbitant sums as the fault of the exchange, tariffs, tax, 'handling'. It's exactly this unrealistic manoeuvring that has made it so expensive to live here.


EDIT: this, as explained to me by several young Argetines; is how things are done (es lo que hay) and they are not ashamed of it. They admit to being opportunists to the point of taking pride in it. I even had a boss that told me: In Argentina, and honest man is a stupid man.
 
I was quoted 42K (no not Kirchneristas, thousand!) pesos for a Reclining chair with massage and whatnot. Gave me a tiny heart attack. Stumbled out of the store half paralyzed and fell into a furniture store run by nice, old Kirchnerista ladies. They quoted me one price of 9000 pesos for a piece of furniture and then when I asked about the price if I wanted to pay with CC. They smiled and said "a ver"...added 40% to the price and said 12600 with a big smile and then followed that with "entendes por que no?". -_- no lady! i don't entiendo...i don't entiendo why you're robbing me with a smile on your face!
 
The thing that Macri has that the Kult does not is a new spring of dialogue with nations that have since dismissed Argentina as unreliable and not credible.
This could turn the tables on whatever contingency that the Kult may have... if he can swing the funding.

Yes. This is the injection of liquidity option I alluded to earlier. I think it's a long shot.

Macri needs to get a loan, on good terms, from an entity that understands the situation and cares to invest in keeping Argentina as a stable country, trading partner, etc.

It would have to be someone with a real interest in getting Argentina back on track, as in transactional terms investing here is way too risky. Labor here is out of control, the employment culture is out of control, corruption as of today is out of control, etc. All there is - and all there will be in 3 weeks time - are promises that (some) things will change. Promises that will be difficult and slow to implement even in the best of cases, with the best of intentions.

Chile comes to mind as a candidate - Macri is interested in the Pacific Alliance, the level of trade that could be done with Chile is mind-boggling, and Chile is led by a stable government who understands how to campaign from the left and govern from the center-right.

But this is really a long shot - even with Macri, given the history of Argentina abiding by past agreements, particularly those of past governments, and general respect for international institutions, combined with the not-close-to-zero probability of a K or some sort of Peronist return rather soon, I don't see anyone getting into line to lend Argentina money.
 
Maybe it's part of the selling strategy: as soon as you are half paralyzed, you *need* the damn chair for a relaxing massage :D
 
For whatever it is worth:

http://fortunaweb.com.ar/2015-12-01-170463-que-requisitos-habra-para-comprar-dolares-a-partir-del-10-de-diciembre/
 
Worth a lot, especially to Vanoli, If I'm reading it correctly, he's between a rock (charge of illegal futures trading) and the hard place of resigning per Macri's request. He's quoted as saying he couldn't work either with Macri or Scioli (“No me veo trabajando con Macri ni Scioli). Maybe Macri gets his way on this one - certainly unlikely that the FpV-controlled Senate would go along with Vanoni's removal before his term ends.

What do the economic experts on the forum think?
 
No expert, not going to work. First , how do they sell something that does not exist (us dollars). And secondly, it is a no brainer "carry trade" while blue is paying a 10% - 15% premium. Sell us dollars in blue, purchase us dollars at official.
 
Interesting, i just read talking about how cepo is going to continue BUT he uses other words that are cooler...
 
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