How Long Until Next Crisis?

[polostar88]

How pathetic. Argentinians trolling an expat forum to beat up on the evil Yanks that ruined their economy, etc.; it has nothing to do with your bad business practices, the materialism, the corruption. Did the US make your corrupt political class tax EXPORTS? Who came up with that idea? Why is Chile doing OK; is that an after-the-fact American gift to Pinochet? How about Brazil? How come they build jet airplanes and you don't? Oh I forgot...you guys actually believe that stories about Brazil doing well now are manufactured by Clarin to "get back" at the Kirchners. I've encountered this belief in Buenos Aires. That's OK though...in the end when the next one hits and the IMF tells you to get lost, it will be you picking through the trash while your beloved Kirchners are living it large in Miami.

Orwellian you would do well to stfu as, again, this thread is not about your obsession with the big bad Yankee that makes you feel like a woman.

 

[gunt86]

I don't know when the Arg economy will crash, perhaps not for a long time, who knows. I do know that the elites of this country have ruined what could have been a very prosperous nation. Power is very concentrated in this country in the hands of a few rich families. Those families make sure that they have a monopoly on whatever business they are involved it. As a result the economy has no dynamism. Too much greed at the top. Too much shortsightedness. Too willing to sell out their own population to foreigners so that they, the elite, can short term benefit. Concentrated wealth is the problem, and it is very toxic when mixed with shortsighted selfishness. Brasil has the same problem more or less, though it is not quite as bad as there are a larger number of elite families that compete with one another to some degree.

 

[Hellek]

I wanted to ask here, if somebody can guide me to the page where the discussion goes back to the original topic. Well, I did not and actually flipped through all the pages myself just to see that the discussion actually has not returned to the topic.
So can you please discuss in a different topic what would be if the USA would not exist or which is the most evil of all countries. I for my part judge people individually, and not based on where they come from.

What do you identify as the most probable causes for the next crisis? Unstable government after the Kirchners? (or right now already, but later probably even more) Outside shock due to something bad happening to the US-Dollar?

By the way, why is the inflation so high right now? Is it due to all the people/companies changing their pesos to foreign currency? Or is it because there is too much capital in the market right now (on a global scale), therefore leading to a big increase in capital in Argentina, driving prices up? Or something else? I hope I get replies to those questions because those points really interest me.

 

[orwellian]

So can you please discuss in a different topic what would be if the USA would not exist or which is the most evil of all countries. I for my part judge people individually, and not based on where they come from.

Thanks for pointing this out. Let's get back to topic.

What do you identify as the most probable causes for the next crisis? Unstable government after the Kirchners? (or right now already, but later probably even more) Outside shock due to something bad happening to the US-Dollar?

Yes when the inevitable happens with the U.S economy this will effect the global economy. Obviously there is no way of telling exactly what will happen. Probably China will emerge as the new engine of the world economy, which will benefit Argentina in the long run since China is one of their biggest exports.

By the way, why is the inflation so high right now? Is it due to all the people/companies changing their pesos to foreign currency? Or is it because there is too much capital in the market right now (on a global scale), therefore leading to a big increase in capital in Argentina, driving prices up? Or something else? I hope I get replies to those questions because those points really interest me.

Wow, speaking of getting back to topic. Inflation is quite a big subject and you're bound to get different answers depending on who you ask.

 

[gracielle]

Hellek asked.....What do you identify as the most probable causes for the next crisis? Unstable government after the Kirchners? (or right now already, but later probably even more) Outside shock due to something bad happening to the US-Dollar?

By the way, why is the inflation so high right now? Is it due to all the people/companies changing their pesos to foreign currency? Or is it because there is too much capital in the market right now (on a global scale), therefore leading to a big increase in capital in Argentina, driving prices up? Or something else? I hope I get replies to those questions because those points really interest me.

There as probably as many answers as there are members of this forum to formulate them. At each turn the economic recipe seems to take some ingredients from its long list of trials and errors to result in yet another monetary crisis. At each turn, the country seems to get further behind in emerging as a viable and contributing entity in the southern hemisphere.

In the 20th century, the economic stability of ARG has been compromised since its return to democracy in 1982. Political candidates have come into office legally but have ruled with an increasing thirst for power and personal financial enrichment.

My guess is we are due for another downturn around 2013.

 

[AlexfromLA]

It's a thread topic that lends itself to wild speculation and extremely varying opinions on if there even will be another crisis in the near future. It also quickly becomes very political for some.

People have been telling me for the past 4 years that Argentina is headed for a crisis in a year. It never happens.

Sometimes it sounds like government opponents are actually wishing for a crisis in order to be able to blame it on the government. Sorta like cutting off the nose to spite the face.

Doesn't make much sense to me. But whatever that's their thing.

If you look at the recent economic history of Argentina from a statistical point of view these things appear to come in cycles approximately 10-20 year cycles. If you take that into account and believe it will continue the same pattern, a " crisis " could happen 2011 to 2021.

It would be much harder to pinpoint an exact year because of the many fluctuating global and regional factors.

I personally don't see a large economic crisis in the near future. But that is just my educated personal opinion. I could very easily be wrong.

I just hope whatever happens, the vultures aren't invited to the party and the country remains united in the event of an actual crisis. Strength through unity.

 

[perry]

I find the people who scream crisis in Argentina are the ones who have left our shores and hope that it all collapses around us here in Buenos Aires as it will secretly make them pleased . I have heard since 2005 on this forum that Argentina will default. collapse completely. that the peso will reach 7 to the dollar . NONE OF THESE WILD RUMOURS HAVE COME TRUE.

I cannot tell you the amount of private message I have recieved attacking me for my strong opinions and my ideas that over time seem more and more plausible.

Yes there will be a worldwide collapse soon there is no doubt and the countries that have the best resources in land and water will best survive . Argentina has by far the best resources on the planet with the most maneagable population meaning that it will suprise many here in its potential in the coming years.

If I was European or a USA citizen I would be leaving asap for South America as this century this continent will be the most successful and wealthiest.

 

[SaraSara]

Argentina has by far the best resources on the planet with the most maneagable population meaning that it will suprise many here in its potential in the coming years.

Sure hope you are right. To me, my compatriotas seem possessed by an urge to self-destruction, as shown by the governments they choose over and over again. They pick people centered on short-term personal profit and to hell with the country and the country's future.

 

[Davidglen77]

I find the people who scream crisis in Argentina are the ones who have left our shores and hope that it all collapses around us here in Buenos Aires as it will secretly make them pleased . I have heard since 2005 on this forum that Argentina will default. collapse completely. that the peso will reach 7 to the dollar . NONE OF THESE WILD RUMOURS HAVE COME TRUE.

I cannot tell you the amount of private message I have recieved attacking me for my strong opinions and my ideas that over time seem more and more plausible.

Yes there will be a worldwide collapse soon there is no doubt and the countries that have the best resources in land and water will best survive . Argentina has by far the best resources on the planet with the most maneagable population meaning that it will suprise many here in its potential in the coming years.

If I was European or a USA citizen I would be leaving asap for South America as this century this continent will be the most successful and wealthiest.

Pericles, although I don't personally know you, having followed this forum for the last 3+ years I have lived here, you have been the voice of reason in several of these doomsday threads.

I strongly agree with what you say about a worldwide crisis coming, especially since the world's largest economy, the USA, is virtually BANKRUPT. The national debt in the USA is at almost 75% of the GDP, that's a REAL recipe for disaster! Anybody who knows anything about finance and / or economy or that follows the stock market on a regular basis can easily see that every time the US economy starts to inch back up, it falls right back down again. This has been going on for the last 2 to 3 years. That proves there is a huge underlying problem.

When I moved to Argentina, people thought I was crazy, however I have been able to achieve (with hard work) a comfortable life style, mortgage free apartment, a debt free small business, and nice circle of friends. I am not saying that Argentina has a perfect economy however it seems to be more stable than countries that were the standard in the last century. Do your homework of course before investing or choosing any country.

 

[LAtoBA]

Yes there will be a worldwide collapse soon there is no doubt and the countries that have the best resources in land and water will best survive . Argentina has by far the best resources on the planet with the most maneagable population meaning that it will suprise many here in its potential in the coming years.

Perry, natural resources mean nothing if firms aren't willing to invest in a country with an inhospitable business environment. It's a fact that investment is needed for a country to grow. Natural resources are great, but are meaningless if there is no outside capital willing to invest in infrastructure and the economy itself.

Argentina is a disappointing economic case. It had the same amount of "potential" New Zealand Canada, and Australia had nearly 100 years ago. From an economical sense these three countries were par for par economically speaking. Yet roughly within that century Australia, Canada and New Zealand have outperformed Argentina on every economic level. That is a fact.

Deep structural changes are needed in Argentina that still have not yet happened.

This is why, despite still suffering from many faults, including huge disparities in income and corruption, I admire Brazil. Lula, imo, has been able to balance social ideology with market liberalization on his own terms (standing up to the West), and has turned Brazil from a hyperinflation basket case to one of the premiere emerging markets in the world. Only time will tell if Brazil can keep the momentum.

As for Argentina, the Kirchners should be given credit for not allowing Argentina to enter into recession. I posted on the "crisis" issue again so don't need to rehash it. But all in all only time will tell if and when the next crash will be.