How Long Until Next Crisis?

[Big_Meech]

This is the best answer anyone can really give on the subject.

only time will tell if and when the next crash will be.

 

[LAtoBA]

This is the best answer anyone can really give on the subject.

Exactly! Economics forecasts are based on theory and well speculation. The only people that ever really "know" are the ones who were right in hindsight.

 

[Moxon]

I find the people who scream crisis in Argentina are the ones who have left our shores and hope that it all collapses around us here in Buenos Aires as it will secretly make them pleased.

No, there are also the locals who despise the government so much they would have a crisis tomorrow just so they could prove how corrupt evil and incompetent they are (and shame on you Nikad for not following the script).

But all in all only time will tell if and when the next crash will be.

Yes, I put economic crisis prediction up there with water divining. We can certainly speculate on the how but as to the when, well someone will win the crisis lottery I guess as they are predicted daily. Those who were wrong know that in 6 months a year, whatever, their prediction will already have been forgotten and they can move on to the next one, they don't have to be humiliated on the spot like the water diviner in a scientific test. It's really a sport with no losers.

 

[gracielle]

I said..."My guess is we are due for another downturn around 2013." Definition...."a turn or trend downward; decrease or decline." I perceive that the economy started on that path in late 2006.

I also did not state Argentina will disappear. It certainly did not disappear in 1989 and 2002 when the economy took downturns. I was here through both periods.

Other countries in the southern hemisphere, with less natural and industrial resources, are achieving a relative level of economic and political stability. They are moving, at different paces, to take advantage of the developing global scenario.

As I see it, ARG is moving on a trajectory aiming to join as full-fletched member of the "10% haves and 90% have nots" world club. With each recovery it becomes more difficult to maintain and develop many required social and economic markers necessary to foster the republican model.

Instead, the slow decay of the institutions is fostering.....
1. violence and drug usage building up to greater levels,
2. truncated quality of health and education,
3. minimal incentives for investment in industry and other areas of production,
4. scarce creation and sustainability of jobs which supports a better quality of life for all social classes,
5. alienation from neighboring countries in matters vital to regional integration.....

I agree, ultimately it won't happen until it the next crisis actually materializes.

 

[gouchobob]

I said..."My guess is we are due for another downturn around 2013." Definition...."a turn or trend downward; decrease or decline." I perceive that the economy started on that path in late 2006.

I also did not state Argentina will disappear. It certainly did not disappear in 1989 and 2002 when the economy took downturns. I was here through both periods.

Other countries in the southern hemisphere, with less natural and industrial resources, are achieving a relative level of economic and political stability. They are moving, at different paces, to take advantage of the developing global scenario.

As I see it, ARG is moving on a trajectory aiming to join as full-fletched member of the "10% haves and 90% have nots" world club. With each recovery it becomes more difficult to maintain and develop many required social and economic markers necessary to foster the republican model.



Instead, the slow decay of the institutions is fostering.....
1. violence and drug usage building up to greater levels,
2. truncated quality of health and education,
3. minimal incentives for investment in industry and other areas of production,
4. scarce creation and sustainability of jobs which supports a better quality of life for all social classes,
5. alienation from neighboring countries in matters vital to regional integration.....


I agree, ultimately it won't happen until it the next crisis actually materializes.

Good post and synopsis of the direction Argentina is heading in under the current government. It's too bad that in the last few years when the economy has been good (thanks to things other than bad government policy) that some real progress couldn't have been made. This will be looked on eventually as another period of time where Argentina squandered more opportunities.

 

[HotYogaTeacher]

Maybe if USA didn't exist Argentina wouldn't have these problems. Did that ever cross your mind?

That has got to be the stupidest thing I've heard all day. Maybe if all the Unicorns were born in Argentina then everything would be OK too...

 

[HotYogaTeacher]

"Yeah exactly. My guess is that they will be less ruthless. Hopefully the only thing we'd be complaining about would be the lack of freedom of speech. But why would that cause embarrassment? It's more like a big change you've been waiting for and you don't know whether it's for the good or bad."

Oh my gosh, goodness yes, the Chinese will be gentle and loving dictators. Welcome them in with open arms...

 

[Lucas]

How long will it be before Argentina collapses yet again? This time I have a feeling the IMF will not bail them out, and why should they?

Read my lips...??????


IMF doesn't exist anymore as far as Argentina concern, so no need to get worried what the IMF thinks or cares, they are out of limits in Argentina not to come back, lessons learned and Argentina will not get burn twice with the same old recipes they proposed for disaster and the patronizing mismanagement imposed to Argentina when under their dictatorial rules.

So, with IMF out of the equation is not need to see if they (IMF) will bail out Argentina or not, the question is redundant...period.

The real and important questions is how and who will bail out United Estates of North America of the mess they are in and in which could push from the edge of the cliff to the abyss the rest of the countries around the world including Argentina and with that starting the worst economic crisis in the world ever...that is the question, forget about Argentina, better for you to worry about USA and what is going to happen in 2011.

The mother of all bubbles is right now been inflated once more not only in USA but around the world as well, in every country, worry when it will blow out, how long it will take, and how long the coming depression if not a war will last...and I'm not talking about regional isolated war.

That's what you should worry about...

 

[MikeB12]

It is impossible to forecast economic conditions one year from now, yet alone 3,4,5 years from now. This thread is obviously just a bunch of speculation led by each person's beliefs and biases.

 

[HotYogaTeacher]

Pericles, although I don't personally know you, having followed this forum for the last 3+ years I have lived here, you have been the voice of reason in several of these doomsday threads.

OK now THAT's funny...