How Long Until Next Crisis?

[polostar88]

How long will it be before Argentina collapses yet again? This time I have a feeling the IMF will not bail them out, and why should they?

 

[orwellian]

I'd say the next crisis will be when the dollar goes into hyperinflation.

 

[polostar88]

I'd say the next crisis will be when the dollar goes into hyperinflation.

It will happen whether or not the dollar does anything...it's inevitable given the amount of capital flight, the looming housing bubble collapse, etc.

Argentina goes through these boom cycles every few years, but it's built on nothing. You can't run an economy that looks like this on soy exports, some mineral exports, and some wine, etc.

The question is if next time the IMF will step in to save them, I say it has no reason to. Argentina fucked up last time and since then it's continued to fuck up.

 

[orwellian]

And I am saying that the dollar will most likely collapse before there is any real crisis here. That's just my guess though, built on my limited knowledge of Argentina.

 

[AlexfromLA]

it happens every 10-20 years

its cyclical.

 

[polostar88]

And I am saying that the dollar will most likely collapse before there is any real crisis here. That's just my guess though, built on my limited knowledge of Argentina.

No you're saying "fuh fuh fuh the US is going to implode too you f***ng Yank!" which is what you do on every thread. But I've never defended US financial policies.

This is an expat board and this thread is about Argentina, it's not a political discussion board. This topic, the timing of the next crisis here, has immediate importance for all expats here or thinking about moving here. No one reads this forum to hear what you think about the US.

 

[orwellian]

I know the OP is about Argentina. But the dollar crisis will have a huge impact here as well. Which is my point.

 

[AlexfromLA]

He was making a very simple and succinct point. One that many economists share.

 

[Hellek]

I am a little bit less pessimistic
1.) In comparison to "developed" countries like USA, most of the EU, etc. Argentina has ridicioulously low debt.
2.) They have a lot of land and natural resources (especially if you don´t take absolute numbers, but put it into relation with population) which is something that always gives you revenue. I.e. unlike India, China, etc. they are at least able to feed themselves.

I am not saying that it would be an especially stable economy here. Nevertheless, in the current days things are changing so fast that I really would not know on which economy to put my money one if I was to bet (I don´t have stock right now). China has strong points and serious problems, USA have strong points and serious problems, EU as well, Argentina as well. Bottom line? If EU fails, I go to Argentina (or stay there). If Argentina fails, obviously I´ll be in the EU. If both fail, well, then I am f'ed

 

[mybeautifulair]

considering that so many Argentines and companies constantly buy dollars with their constantly inflating pesos, it would be logical to assume the dollar hyper inflating would (trying to be optimistic and not say 'will') have real consequences in Argentina.
http://mybeautifulair.wordpress.com/2010/08/22/economy/