How much is the Arg. peso really worth?

[EL_TIGRE_de_Tigre]

Given this development, I can't help but think just how much tougher and harder the sledding can get?

Any thoughts?

 

[antipodean]

Why would that be? The CCL was just a reference rate WU used. CCL will still continue to exist. So WU should follow that rate for the time being. I think the CCL will actually be up for some time. Let's see how the market reacts tomorrow.

The point is the differentiation between resident and non-resident access to the CCL rates. Will WU continue to be the sole benefactor of CCL or will they need to determine and disclose the end user and base the rate upon them? (They need to disclose today but the rate is the same for all users as this different residency based rule never existed before)

 

[EL_TIGRE_de_Tigre]

After thinking about all this, I believe The Argentine government is going to create more demand for dollars instead of flattening demand. I am expecting exchange rates in the informal market to really jump and probably stay there. The official rate is due for a re set as well.

 

[jblaze5779]

After thinking about all this, I believe The Argentine government is going to create more demand for dollars instead of flattening demand. I am expecting exchange rates in the informal market to really jump and probably stay there. The official rate is due for a re set as well.

There's nothing they can do to grow faith in the peso. That ship has sailed. The blue can only go up.

 

[dsp27]

The point is the differentiation between resident and non-resident access to the CCL rates. Will WU continue to be the sole benefactor of CCL or will they need to determine and disclose the end user and base the rate upon them? (They need to disclose today but the rate is the same for all users as this different residency based rule never existed before)

My understanding is that the CCL was/is only a price reference point for WU. The money never passed thru that channel. Hence no need to comply with the residency rule. But let's see.

 

[EL_TIGRE_de_Tigre]

There's nothing they can do to grow faith in the peso. That ship has sailed. The blue can only go up.

J,

I have to agree with you. There is absolutely nothing that the government can do to restore faith in the currency. Well, perhaps one thing, but it will take forever to do. That one thing is to simply march to the beat of a different drum and put in a long term track record of doing good for the country and it's people. This would take a generation or longer, but it is the only thing that would restore faith.

The restoration of faith is probably not in the cards because it would involve a whole other way of thinking. And there is no one or political party out there that I am aware of who would have the political capital to pull it off. This would be a long term project across many election cycles. The voters have a very short attention / patience span. There is no hope. It will be a downward spiral for infinity here.

 

[jblaze5779]

J,

I have to agree with you. There is absolutely nothing that the government can do to restore faith in the currency. Well, perhaps one thing, but it will take forever to do. That one thing is to simply march to the beat of a different drum and put in a long term track record of doing good for the country and it's people. This would take a generation or longer, but it is the only thing that would restore faith.

The restoration of faith is probably not in the cards because it would involve a whole other way of thinking. And there is no one or political party out there that I am aware of who would have the political capital to pull it off. This would be a long term project across many election cycles. The voters have a very short attention / patience span. There is no hope. It will be a downward spiral for infinity here.

I'm not an argentine expert but even during macri my coworkers were pleading with me to bring them dollars. Me being new here I didn't understand the point since the parallel markets didn't seem obvious. The whole time they never trusted the pesos. If the argentines didn't want pesos with macri in the presidency they sure as hell won't want them with the fernandezs in charge.

I know it's easy to play armchair quarterback but this is clear as day to me.

 

[antipodean]

My understanding is that the CCL was/is only a price reference point for WU. The money never passed thru that channel. Hence no need to comply with the residency rule. But let's see.

Am not sure about this since WU Argentina deposits into bank accounts here and WU agents that give out the cash in Argentina. One has to wonder if the amount they collect here in Argentina (to be sent abroad) is sufficient to cover the amount it pays out, or WU abroad needs to pay WU Argentina to balance any deficit - in which case, they would more likely than not use the CCL like any company. Hence it gives them the ability to base their rates off of it even if just as a reference. If this door closes, then perhaps they would be like one of the other transfer companies with rates closer to the official.

Today the rate remains at 150 to the EUR, but the CCL rate is also like yesterday at 134 ... perhaps because no one is able/ willing to trade it at the moment as systems and internal policies are being reconfigured to reflect the new BCRA rules, and whole more official definition is being given to the “holding” rules.

 

[Redpossum]

Dólar: qué pasa con la cotización | Los bancos no venden hasta adecuar sus sistemas y el blue llegó a 145

Los bancos frenaron las operaciones de compraventa de dólares para adaptarse a la nueva normativa del Banco Central y la AFIP. Los sistemas de venta de divisas a través de homebanking deben incorporar el cobro del 35 por ciento a cuenta de Ganancias y ...

www.pagina12.com.ar

Pagina12 is reporting the Blue dollar jumped to 145 this morning, but that tends to be the reaction to any policy change, in my observation; people run to the dollar. Then again, given Argentina's unfortunate history, it's hard to blame them for thinking "BOHICA!".

 

[jblaze5779]

Am not sure about this since WU Argentina deposits into bank accounts here and WU agents that give out the cash in Argentina. One has to wonder if the amount they collect here in Argentina (to be sent abroad) is sufficient to cover the amount it pays out, or WU abroad needs to pay WU Argentina to balance any deficit - in which case, they would more likely than not use the CCL like any company. Hence it gives them the ability to base their rates off of it even if just as a reference. If this door closes, then perhaps they would be like one of the other transfer companies with rates closer to the official.

Today the rate remains at 150 to the EUR, but the CCL rate is also like yesterday at 134 ... perhaps because no one is able/ willing to trade it at the moment as systems and internal policies are being reconfigured to reflect the new BCRA rules, and whole more official definition is being given to the “holding” rules.

Usually they are lagging by a day or two any drastic changes in the rate. I would expect to see some change this afternoon or tomorrow.