How's everyone hanging in there with the cost of living these days?

[Caribbean Cool]

 

[Caribbean Cool]

This is the best instant coffee ever.....buy 8 packages and no delivery charge on Mercado Libre

 

[Rich One]

I have deleted most of your quote due to character limits on posting.

1) The devaluation of the dollar absolutely has an impact on the value to Argentinian pesos. The relative strength of different economies is representative in the relative differences in the exchange rate over the last year, otherwise they would all change the same agaisnt the USD. If not, please point me in the direction of the arbitrage opportunities between other currencies for the infinite money glitch.
2) What are the heavy restrictions and currency controls? For the most part it is operating freely.
3) Its pretty amazing that the peso has been getting stronger over the last 6 weeks even with the government purchasing about $1.6B of USD to build reserves and pay debt.
4) International community is looking at investing in Argentina. San Juan has multiple major mining projects going on both expansions and new sites. Rio Tinto is building a lithium mine in Salta. American Oil production looks to have peaked in October, nevertheless, the Permian basin and shale production is leveling off and will begin to decline due to the aging and lower quality of wells. The oil service companies have already said they are looking at other places to go internationally with most looking to the middle east, and some looking at expanding in Argentina due to the similar shale resource. You can listen to their quarterly calls. Saputo (Canadian) just sold 80% of La Paulina to a Peruvian company. Saputo focusses on different regions globally (Canada, US, Australia, UK) and this new company is expanding through South America.
5) The US government thus far hasn't even been willing to underwrite and guarantee investment in Venezuela and isn't guaranteeing anything about recovery of debts there, where is your proof that companies risk is mitigated when investing in Argentina? The fact that the RIGI regimen was passed as law and not decree provides additional security to international companies.
6) That is why the banks only setup a loan facility far smaller than the 20B Bessent initially suggested, due to risk, but its not being secured by the US government.
7) The country risk has decreased from 1800+ to now around 500. That is how financial institutions price risk. So now its US Interest rate plus 5% instead of 18%. It has dropped remarkably. You can suggest whatever you want, but the financial markets are what counts in practice and they are responding positively.
8) Based on your logic no country could ever turn itself around from poor economic history yet they do. And this government is meeting debt obligations, and they have implemented austerity measures and are operating at a fiscal surplus, etc. This is again indicated by the country risk, so its not a point of discussion but fact.
9) The fact that Milei won the mid-terms with far more support than expected and the left still hasn't presented any reasonable opposition, and a younger generation that is more supportive of the right, I am not sure what is indicating the political instability you mentioned. The squeaky wheel gets the grease so that might be what you hear in the news but it isn't the feeling of the population. People understand that 60% of the economy is informal and a country cannot sustain itself that way.
10) Growth has already stalled, so if that is it, why is he going to win in 2027?
11) What exactly is the currency manipulation going on that you keep on talking about? The government is purchasing much less than it and the US treasury did prior to the election and the dollar is going down. And they are purchasing to build reserves and pay foreign debts. They are now burning pesos to reduce inflation impacts and trying to balance interest rates in doing so. But other than around the election due to news being made by the left, the pesos is not near the limits of the bands and is being freely traded.
12) The comment about living off the government was not about handouts. It was about previous governments supporting a far stronger peso creating parallel exchange rates that allowed you to effectively live at a massive discount when the Blue dollar was double or triple the official dollar.
13) What is he doing that is absolutely destroying the country? Are there not protectionist policies that have been in place for decades in the country? Are industries just not competitive against the rest of the world even with salaries what they are here? The textile industry being called out by Caputo is a great example. Similar to the Techint callout for the pipeline bid where they were willing to accept an Argentian bid 10% higher.
14) What ethics or lack of morals are you seeing in business here? Have you actually tried to perform on a cost basis analysis of a business here? To be able to make almost any profit for a restaurant for instance, the meal would need to cost about 4.5x the cost of food. There are some pretty heavy taxes here compared to other countries. They also don't have access to cheap money like in many parts of the world for loans etc. So either they are getting killed on that or they need to invest 100% without loans. Buenos Aires seems to be exceptionally more expensive than other parts of the country, but that is the Free Market. If people stopped buying Empanadas at 50k/dozen then the prize will come down. If they continue to pay that then they see it as "worth it". This is no different than the greed that has ripped through North America since the pandemic.
15) I find Argentinians and other nationalities that live here to be quite friendly and easy going and great people. If you believe they are unethical and morally compromised and treat them as such, then I guess the question is are they treating you different because of how you treat or project onto them or is that just how they are?
16) I don't understand what you mean by being a foreigner is seen as a step up. Are you suggesting that they accept that you are better than them because you are a foreigner? I have never come across this anywhere in the world. If anything, they would see you as a source of money.
17) How much more and on what basis do you see prices going up? At some point it cannot because literally there is no money to be spent on it. Consumption at supermarkets is going down. With regards to meat, the price jumped in December when the quota to the US increased because now they need to compete more globally for cattle. But the price of meat is still far cheaper here than it is in the US or Canada. I still find that the costs of goods at restarants haven't doubled since last year in USD terms, and the cost of inputs (supermarket, fruits and vegetables) to be fairly stable or even cheaper here over that time. I do not live in BA. The price of other items has decreased significantly, air conditioners, fridges, kitchen appliances etc.
18) The price of restaurants is not only based on the price of food. There is also rent, labour, utilities etc, which have all increased as well. Again, actually try and calculate what the cost would have to be to operate profitably.
19) Provide evidence that inflation is 10% a month. My rent is not increasing based on that amount, nor am I observing any prices increasing at that rate. You are referring to when the government had INDEC control the values etc. That is not at all what is going on now nor the discussion around changing the basket used to calculate inflation. That is based on a survey from 2018 which is being called into question now as not being representative given the cost of services etc. Changing it now, also makes it difficult to compare with previous periods. ie post pandemic under previous governments when it was far worse. Nobody in this thread is talking about the US or Trump. What is occuring in the US is not the topic of discussion here. and based on your previous statements, the value of the USD does not impact the peso.
20) You have not provided any examples, but are making fairly sweeping statements. It appears that this government is making changes and those are being accepted by the population hence the midterm results, and foreign institutions as indicated by the markets, willingness to invest, and country risk to loan.

For reading easiness . Four lines paragraphs are easier on the eye.

 

[SlowWalker]

For reading easiness . Four lines paragraphs are easier on the eye.

Understood and thanks for the feedback. I'll try spacing out the points also in the future.

 

[on the brink]

Understood and thanks for the feedback. I'll try spacing out the points also in the future.

I, for one, don't mind your original post's spacing. Great reasoning, and great reading. Keep your very interesting posts coming, spaced or not...!

 

[SlowWalker]

The USD Depreciation usually has no effect on the Peso in Argentina as Argentina is in a league of it's own. It's currency is heavily restricted and has capital controls. All of Argentina as far as I'm concerned is not worth investing and the international community agrees with me. The international community only puts their money into financial assets, i.e The current carry trade that is making the peso strengthen and into the stock market, minimally. These can be bought and sold in an instant and preserve the capital of the investor. However, boots on the ground will never ever happen, because the mindset of Argentinians to go back on their word in the future remains a high risk headache. Nobody in their right mind will put one dime into Argentina and if they do, I guarantee they are getting a huge incentive and their risk is probably nil. In order for Argentina to make it great in the future it's gonna need, Tech, energy and mining to push it into another level{higher paying jobs} and for that to happen it needs foreign investment to which will never come because Argentina has burned to many bridges along with a mindset of...."Nahhh, lets just not uphold our end of the deal" It's a cultural mindset that prevails among the overall population. Currency controls, ever changing political instability and credibility lost, which won't come back for a very, very long time. Milei will win again in 2027 but once a crisis brews, growth stalls and trump is no longer the baby milk for the pathetic political inept here, the left will regain again and then the collapse will come but this time the collapse will be because milei did nothing but manipulate the currency and had no plan just like Menem in the 1990's. The analogy is shockingly similar and amazingly Menem is Mileis hero. People never learn. It's alarming.

As far as me, again you fools here Project alot. My lifestyle never depends on Government handouts and is 100% governed by me and trust me, my lifestyle is quite nice to put it bluntly. I'm not here as an expat but for just a short(leaving by winter) while as imho you gotta be a fool to stay long term here considering what damage Milei is doing to the country. Putting aside Milei though, I'm just not a fan of the food, quality, and lack of moral compass of prices/business deals etc. It feels like a scam based country/economy to be very honest. However I do like the weather and the city is beautiful to walk around. I also find as a foreigner it's very hard to mix or to be accepted into their so called groups. Here I feel like I'm looked down on, compared to lets say BRAZIL, where being a foreigner is actually seen as a step up for the majority of the population there. I see no upsides staying here longer than a short while. For those that are on a fixed income and do stay here, I pray that you have a plan, as the coming price increases will continue despite the fake inflation numbers that are a complete fraud. Beef is up 100%(some places even more) since a year ago and restaurants are up 100% as well from a year ago, yet the peso has only devalued 20% to 30% since then(riddle me that one). All you have to do is record the prices now and one year later look at the prices in 2027. This is what I did and I came up with around 10% total inflation per month since Feb 2025, year over year. I don't pay attention to the scam "official numbers" we all know those are skewed for the political power at the time. It's a long standing truth in Argentina. They even got caught years ago fixing the numbers. It's all out there. The USA now is doing same thing under Trump.

Argentina has enormous potential but the issue with Argentina is sadly it's people at the top, they are greedy, don't have pride for their own country and want power regardless if it puts the regular person poor for generations to come. Sad but very very true.

Here is an article today from Infobae highlighting multiple emerging market currencies that have strengthened against the USD.
Lets try and stick to facts.

Infobae - El dólar no sólo cae en la Argentina: qué pasa con otras monedas emergentes y cuáles son las causas

 

[SlowWalker]

I'm not asking anybody to trust me and never said bro. I could care less what you think and what fantasy you ascribe to. I'm simply saying I will be betting against Argentina now and much more after Trump drops of the map next elections because things will never ever change. It's cultural. Haven't you read anything I've said? Problems with Argentina start and finish with the people and human nature never changes. I'm betting on almost 100 years of a people that say one thing and do the other, keep thinking they are great, when they are not and in fact they're just like their neighbors in South America. I'm betting against the society at large( this is the root of all their problems)No amount of projects or whatever will change this. Like i've said before, reputation around the world is that Argentina are serial defaulters and go back on their word. Milei cant change this now. This will take decades to repair. It's common sense, that you fools refuse to admit because you are here and think it's great, for reasons I shake my head at.

Keep drinking the Milei kool aid. I'm sure it tastes great lol.

Intial investment for the Vicuna project was declared today. If the project is approved by the companies, then the initial investment 2027-2030 will be $7B, with a final total of $18B, higher than the original estimates of $15B. There is some spend going on this year for preparing earthworks, and some equipment purchases.

From the article (Inversión de USD 18.000 millones: la minera Vicuña oficializó su plan para la explotación de oro, plata y cobre en Argentina), the project is expecting to be one of the top 5 copper, gold, silver operations in the world. For the first 25 years, average annual production would be 395,000 t of copper, 711,000 ounces of gold, and 22 million ounces of silver.
Assuming $4/lb for copper, $2500,oz gold, and $30/oz silver (all prices are quite a bit lower than currently trading,$6/lb copper, $5k/gold, $76/oz silver), that would give annual, that would be an annual revenue of $5.9B. Obviously there is a cost to produce, pay back capital, royalties and taxes, but to suggest that projects don't have an impact is being blind to facts.

I suspect this would provide more higher paying jobs directly/indirectly than were reported lost in the textile industry over almost the last 3 years. It would also help shore up FX markets and provide reliable industry for 25+ years.

Why can Canada, US, Saudi Arabia, Australia, Chile, Peru, Venezuela, etc have resource based economies, but suggesting that these types of projects in Argentina won't bring about change and support the future?

 

[ksm76]

Intial investment for the Vicuna project was declared today. If the project is approved by the companies, then the initial investment 2027-2030 will be $7B, with a final total of $18B, higher than the original estimates of $15B. There is some spend going on this year for preparing earthworks, and some equipment purchases.

From the article (Inversión de USD 18.000 millones: la minera Vicuña oficializó su plan para la explotación de oro, plata y cobre en Argentina), the project is expecting to be one of the top 5 copper, gold, silver operations in the world. For the first 25 years, average annual production would be 395,000 t of copper, 711,000 ounces of gold, and 22 million ounces of silver.
Assuming $4/lb for copper, $2500,oz gold, and $30/oz silver (all prices are quite a bit lower than currently trading,$6/lb copper, $5k/gold, $76/oz silver), that would give annual, that would be an annual revenue of $5.9B. Obviously there is a cost to produce, pay back capital, royalties and taxes, but to suggest that projects don't have an impact is being blind to facts.

I suspect this would provide more higher paying jobs directly/indirectly than were reported lost in the textile industry over almost the last 3 years. It would also help shore up FX markets and provide reliable industry for 25+ years.

Why can Canada, US, Saudi Arabia, Australia, Chile, Peru, Venezuela, etc have resource based economies, but suggesting that these types of projects in Argentina won't bring about change and support the future?

It's a drop in the bucket of a much larger employment issue. It's a stop gap and still in the early stages. Means nothing now or for awhile except for a few jobs in the beginning.

The mining you have mentioned will take years to get to the market and by then most likely a world wide recession(lower prices, at least temporarily)will be taking hold and probably a new left leaning administration once again in Argentina. The left can do good things like China and Sweden does but it never does. They need to learn from China or like Sweden but that would require Argentinians to pay taxes to which they don't lol. This really is a huge issue with Argentina that people sweep under the rug.

Canada= upstanding truth and contract abiding people.
US= same as Canada and probably more so when it comes to contracts
Saudi Arabia=Probably the best run society in the world with high importance on a real religion{ I don't support either one} not the fake one called Christianity, so their morality is very high at least business wise.
Australia= Just like the USA
Chile=Sorry to say but they are a very correct society and business wise they are bar non the best in South America.Very open economy It's the little USA of South America. Recently however the immigration relaxation could change that once amazingly calm and forthright society.
Peru=Another trusting society with a very stable economy, for years on end.
Venezuela=Now might become another Panama, with puppet leaders. Society mixed but could work

And now Argentina=====Filled with endless resources yet those resources have been there for a very long time and the world has known about them, yet, nobody really wants to do business with Argentinians. Maybe it's because they go back on their word, they rip up contracts, they default on their debts, they Nationalize, they have massive import taxes, tariffs and trade barriers, they are corrupt beyond words, they are ruled by oligarchs, they are arrogant, they think they are better than the rest of South America. Nahh these things I've mentioned don't matter and the world loves these type of business people and road blocks. They love it LOL

Argentina is mess because of it's people point blank. Lets just get this straight. The fact that these barriers are still in place even with Menem 2.0 is a testament to this fact.

The countries you mentioned have superior societies (Except Venezuela} unlike Argentina, which has the complete opposite.
This is why Argentina will never make it. It's Cultural.

 

[Jimbob]

"Saudi Arabia=Probably the best run society in the world"

This is a joke right?

 

[Ronnie Hotdogs]

It's a drop in the bucket of a much larger employment issue. It's a stop gap and still in the early stages. Means nothing now or for awhile except for a few jobs in the beginning.

The mining you have mentioned will take years to get to the market and by then most likely a world wide recession(lower prices, at least temporarily)will be taking hold and probably a new left leaning administration once again in Argentina. The left can do good things like China and Sweden does but it never does. They need to learn from China or like Sweden but that would require Argentinians to pay taxes to which they don't lol. This really is a huge issue with Argentina that people sweep under the rug.

Canada= upstanding truth and contract abiding people.
US= same as Canada and probably more so when it comes to contracts
Saudi Arabia=Probably the best run society in the world with high importance on a real religion{ I don't support either one} not the fake one called Christianity, so their morality is very high at least business wise.
Australia= Just like the USA
Chile=Sorry to say but they are a very correct society and business wise they are bar non the best in South America.Very open economy It's the little USA of South America. Recently however the immigration relaxation could change that once amazingly calm and forthright society.
Peru=Another trusting society with a very stable economy, for years on end.
Venezuela=Now might become another Panama, with puppet leaders. Society mixed but could work

And now Argentina=====Filled with endless resources yet those resources have been there for a very long time and the world has known about them, yet, nobody really wants to do business with Argentinians. Maybe it's because they go back on their word, they rip up contracts, they default on their debts, they Nationalize, they have massive import taxes, tariffs and trade barriers, they are corrupt beyond words, they are ruled by oligarchs, they are arrogant, they think they are better than the rest of South America. Nahh these things I've mentioned don't matter and the world loves these type of business people and road blocks. They love it LOL

Argentina is mess because of it's people point blank. Lets just get this straight. The fact that these barriers are still in place even with Menem 2.0 is a testament to this fact.

The countries you mentioned have superior societies (Except Venezuela} unlike Argentina, which has the complete opposite.
This is why Argentina will never make it. It's Cultural.

Saudi Arabia, laziest people on Earth only manage to operate as a country because of Oil.