It's a drop in the bucket of a much larger employment issue. It's a stop gap and still in the early stages. Means nothing now or for awhile except for a few jobs in the beginning.
The mining you have mentioned will take years to get to the market and by then most likely a world wide recession(lower prices, at least temporarily)will be taking hold and probably a new left leaning administration once again in Argentina. The left can do good things like China and Sweden does but it never does. They need to learn from China or like Sweden but that would require Argentinians to pay taxes to which they don't lol. This really is a huge issue with Argentina that people sweep under the rug.
Shortened your quote due to character limits.
1) How is it a drop in the bucket and stop gap? Construction phase of projects are typically when you have highest direct and indirect employment. Once in operations numbers tend to decrease.
2) Why does it matter when first production occurs? Mining operations will start far earlier to prestrip and stockpile material to feed the plant once it is available. This also increases project NPV by advancing production rather than waiting for once the plant is built. You seem to not be familiar with the industry.
3) There are structural shortages of key metals required for the future, hence the term critical minerals. As older mines age their production will decrease, there are also mines with labour disputes, power issues, and license to operate issues. There is significant shortages of metals for infrastructure and structural changes in technology in the world ready hence the pricing.
4) Even if there is a recession, banks, countries etc warehouse metals to have stock. Maybe investigate the warehousing of copper in China, US etc. JP Morgan is alleged to own nearly 1 yr of annual silver production, 750 Moz, stored in warehouses.
5) Here you laugh about Argentinians not paying tax, but this is a fundamental issue. And then you suggest the left will sort it out. The left have been in power for most of the last 80 years. Usually the past is a fairly decent indicator of future performance. Even now, what is their plan to fix the issues? Raise more taxes from a smaller and smaller group of people? I have asked you in another thread. Provide ideas. Looking to other countries that are either very small and have a much smaller population, or the most industrialized country in the world isn't something that can just be imported here. The government is making structural changes to improve the scenario here. Nothing happens over night. The left also haven't sorted out many of the other countries because they have gone too far, and similar for conservatives not being fiscal conservatives.
6) Other countries: What are you suggesting,
-Saudi Arabia is the best run society? Maybe read up about their slave labour systems of domestic and migrant workers. Is it a free society? What are the cornerstones of the economy? Why are resources an acceptable basis of their economy but not to be developed in Argentina?
-Peru and Chile can swing left to right pretty hard during elections, making it tough for new major investment. In 2023-2025 Chile has floated nationalizing industries, or that the state should be given controlling ownership stake (50% +1) through its state controlled copper company, Codelco, for new lithium projects. Also, large labour strikes that can last months, and changing laws on worker compensation and bonuses alter the economics of projects significantly after the investment has been made.
-Canada and Australia are the most stable and predictable.
7) Argentina has resources, but the type of mineralization, the location of the deposits, and ultimately the investment required put it far down on the list of locations worth investing. Now, many years later when the easier deposits are depleted globally, larger equipment to allow for economies of scale, improved technology, and higher metal prices to support higher investment and operating costs, Argentinian properties are now a more viable option. I don't think you appreciate what it takes to run mines in remote locations, at high altitudes, harsh climates, etc.
8) Do you work in industry here? Can you please tell me what they have nationalized other than YPF? There are multiple operating mines in the country. All the issues that you have mentioned are not necessarily applicable to the mining industry. They also had separate legislation that managed them differently than the general economy. I don't think you actually are aware of the industry. Though it wasn't perfect during previous administrations, they were profitable.
9) Please let me know about other jurisdiction around the world that have had many problems, and risky for foreign investment in South America, Russia, Africa, and the Middle East, but you know what, unfortunately people don't get to choose where minerals and resources are located. Or that government decide after the fact that you cannot just sell raw materials but need to perform value addition in country as well. And private industry does continue to take risks and invest globally in these jurisdictions.
Venezuela nationalized twice (70s and 2000s), Saudi Aramco was formed from nationalizing american companies (they bought them fairly over a period of decades), Russia expropriated and forced sale from foreign oil and gas companies (Shell and Japanese partners 2006 and 2002), Indonesia demanded value addition take place in country, Bolivia nationalized/forced renogiation of natural gas contracts, Chile historically nationalized steel/iron ore/ and large copper operations, and more recently is talking about nationalizing lithium projects, China ihas more controlling stakes in companies and state owned companies than any other country, Suez canal was nationalized from British and French onwnership, Germany nationalized Russian Gasprom and Rosneft German assets, India the coal, oil and gas industry, Mexcio nationalized the petroleum industry, and in Africa there is a history of expropriated, or holding companies hostage for money, or limiting production due to lack of power etc in the country. I think you can see the trend that there are issues investing globally, not just in Argentina. And all companies take risk into consideration and determine what is the required return on investment to justify the risk.
10) Interesting that you cannot show the government any respect in the least by referring to him by his name, particularly in a country in which you are a guest. Nevertheless, the administration in 2023 did not win a majority, nor did it in the midterms. So it was/is required to make deals to get the votes to pass budgets. As a result he wasn't/isn't able to implement everything he wanted to immediately or in its entirety. And some of it was phased, such as certain duties and taxes on electrical equipment being phased out from July last year and January this year. It also gives local companies time to adjust and become competitive. I think this also goes to show running a country and instituting massive change is far harder than you might think.
11) I think other and I do not think other countries have super special societies, but rather Argentina has a very good society made up of very good people, which is why many of us like it here and want to stay. It seems like your experiences may have caused you to arrive at a different decision but based on your attitude you display on the forum to people, I wonder if it is somehow a reaction to how you may be treating them.
12) The Argentinian people voted a second time and gave an unexpected larger victory to the current administration to give them more of a chance to implement changes to improve the scenario. They understand that things take time, similar that you have mentioned the timeline of projects, but they believe that the path is different than previous administrations and they have hope.
13) Can you provide some ideas of what can be done differently to get Argentina back into the mix of things, or can you only put down a nation of people and make sweeping generalizations without any factual evidence?
It does come back from time to time, unfortunately, like the "contributor" from Taiwan who turns up once a year to say "nyah! nyah!!"
