Is Argentina Doomed?

rivardco

Registered
Joined
Mar 8, 2009
Messages
46
Likes
2
There are valid and sound one and two sentence critiques that lead me to suppose there is intelliegence on this board that fails to materialize itself often. Where are counter positions, and replies that exceed 100 words?
 

Mitch

Registered
Joined
Oct 21, 2008
Messages
239
Likes
152
EMR said:
Well, I disagree completely and actually feel this is the perfect time to invest in Argentina. I have a finance background and all I can say is there are always opposite points of view and that is what makes markets. Time will tell.

¨Finance backround¨ Pardon me if I laugh out loud. As if that has anything to do with investing in a Country like Argentina. If you have lived here for more than 6 months I would be shocked.
 

perry

Registered
Joined
Jun 20, 2006
Messages
4,443
Likes
2,131

ghost

Registered
Joined
Mar 21, 2007
Messages
3,331
Likes
2,206
Background ,Yes, $$$$$, yes. Doomed, Yes. The country is fucked. From every possible angle. Dead and still walking. But not for long.
 

Grazie

Registered
Joined
Aug 29, 2006
Messages
295
Likes
15
ghost, tell us how you really feel (jajaja) - and it's good to see you posting here again.
 

Rad

Registered
Joined
May 22, 2008
Messages
137
Likes
29
pericles said:
I believe that people are narrow minded to judge an investment in a country on one mans opinions and one with no economic background to boot.

He is very Gungho about investing in Panama though meaning that there is an ulterior motive there to lure international investors to his haven.

Actually, his favorite country for investment is not Panama, but one neighbor of Argentina and one central-European country. He travels the World and writes reports about different countries. The reason why his blog seems biased towards Panama is because it is new (the blog). However, he writes about many other countries in the newsletters where he has been a contributor for a long time.

Anyway, where are the counter-arguments? It is easy to get offended and dismiss the article with a few words. I think his reasoning is pretty clear and sound. He identified the problem as he sees it and provided context and anectodal evidence.
 

jp

Registered
Joined
Jun 2, 2008
Messages
1,367
Likes
815
No he didn't. He made sweeping generalisations and provided nothing in the way of evidence. I've heard better arguments for reptile controlled new world orders running global financial systems. Well, can you argue they aren't? Etc etc.

If he posted something worth discussing we could discuss it, but seeing as he didn't there's not much point discussing a fairly ignorant and simplistic rant.
 

Rad

Registered
Joined
May 22, 2008
Messages
137
Likes
29
jp said:
No he didn't. He made sweeping generalisations and provided nothing in the way of evidence. I've heard better arguments for reptile controlled new world orders running global financial systems. Well, can you argue they aren't? Etc etc.

If he posted something worth discussing we could discuss it, but seeing as he didn't there's not much point discussing a fairly ignorant and simplistic rant.

OK, you don't have to discuss this, but others may, ok? I have made some observations about Argentina of my own and I think he is onto something.

I like Argentina, BsAs is one of my favorite cities. I met some nice people there. But the facts are that Argentina is a basket case with periodic and frequent crises and with people that trashed the airport because of a strike, trashed the subway stations because of some delays and whose favorite pastime is protesting.
 

findyourways

Registered
Joined
Oct 31, 2008
Messages
17
Likes
1
Some insight regarding this topic:

In our view the solution to the fiscal problem will be gradual and will hinge on an increase of revenues over time from high inflation and the return to growth next year, plus the benefits from larger exports in 2010. Of course, it needs to be supported by a tough stance on expenditures which means “good bye populism”. It can be done, but it needs a good understanding of the situation.

http://www.rgemonitor.com/latam-monitor/257202/argentina_a_new_outlook_with_hope_and_risks
 

steveinbsas

Registered
Joined
Jul 27, 2006
Messages
9,763
Likes
5,788
EMR said:
Well, I disagree completely and actually feel this is the perfect time to invest in Argentina. I have a finance background and all I can say is there are always opposite points of view and that is what makes markets. Time will tell.

What aspect of your financal background makes you the "feel" that this is the perfect time to invest in Argentina? Is this merely wishful thinking (if not outright fantasy) or a sound, factual conclusion?

Feelings often have a greater impact on markets than points of view.

That's why some economic downturns are historically referred to as panics.

Will three be a panic here? Will Argentines become "desperate for dollars" as they were in 2002, leading to a sudden and steep (albeit brief) decline in real estate prices? Indeed, only time will tell, but there were extraordinary circumstances in play then, one that won't be repeated : a sudden 70% devalution of the peso, and one that Argentines still fear today: the confiscation of funds in banks.

As Pericles has noted, attractively priced properties in desirable locations are selling and not much else. Most buyers are Argentines looking for a place to live. There are also a few expats (like me) who have recently sold one property and bought another. If I didn't live here full time (with no plans to leave) I would have taken the money and run, but I found exactly what I was looking for (price and location) the day after I received the offer for the sale of my apartment (it actually was listed that same day). I had been searching for the entire six months my apartment was on the market. Compared to similar properties it was indeed a bargain (priced to sell fast due to divorce) and I did not hesitate to buy it. In the next few years it may not "hold" its resale value even at the price I paid, but I seriously doubt it will decline in value greater than the rent I would otherwise have to pay.

A few BA real estate investors might be scooping up bargains, but there aren't very many, at least not yet. Those with funds to invest are more likely waiting for a further decline in prices of properties whose owners have not yet seen the darkness at the end of the tunnel and still expect to sell at (2007-2008) price levels that existed prior to the current downturn or flat line (depending on the barrio).
 
Top