Is Argentina Doomed?

HotYogaTeacher

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Any economist will tell you, government and national personality aside, that with 20% (plus?) inflation annually a crash is guaranteed. An economy, and the humans who live inside its confines, can not sustain that kind of imbalance.

Expats don't leave because of things like that. They will leave if there is rioting in the streets and their semi-retired, pseudo-vacation lifestyles are threatened and they feel unsafe. They won't leave because the economy crashed, expats do better when everything is cheap. We don't earn here, mostly. Basically, expats are not what you have to worry about, we live frugally and contribute little to the economy. The thing that will go, for a while, is tourism. One little riot and all the ladies will cancel their tango romance adventures and stay home to take pilates in Manhattan.

In the end, the reason so many expats moved here is because the last crash made it crazy affordable. Another one will do the same. Eventually the cycle will repeat, and expats wont be impacted one whit, but the locals will continue to suffer, and yes, I do think they need a national overhaul on how they approach problems. But I didn't come here to change Argentines, I came here to get to know them...

Peace~
 

steveinbsas

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HotYogaTeacher said:
I didn't come here to change Argentines, I came here to get to know them...

Peace~

And now that you know them, what do you think?
 

John.St

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HotYogaTeacher said:
... I do think they need a national overhaul on how they approach problems. But I didn't come here to change Argentines, I came here to get to know them...Peace~
Afraid it can't be done, either. We are talking of a life style and problems dating back to the Encomienda system.

Try telling an Argentinian, who isn't one of your very close frinds, what you think is wrong in their country and how they may fix it.

If lucky, they'll say: "If you don't like my country, then why don't you just leave?" - if not you'll get a crash course in the more rude expressions of Argentino-Español.

Their patriotism (and probably the unpleasant knowledge that country is rather badly run) make them cringe (if that's the word I want?) and deny the obvious.
 

BlahBlah

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HotYogaTeacher said:
Any economist will tell you, government and national personality aside, that with 20% (plus?) inflation annually a crash is guaranteed. An economy, and the humans who live inside its confines, can not sustain that kind of imbalance.

Expats don't leave because of things like that. They will leave if there is rioting in the streets and their semi-retired, pseudo-vacation lifestyles are threatened and they feel unsafe. They won't leave because the economy crashed, expats do better when everything is cheap. We don't earn here, mostly. Basically, expats are not what you have to worry about, we live frugally and contribute little to the economy. The thing that will go, for a while, is tourism. One little riot and all the ladies will cancel their tango romance adventures and stay home to take pilates in Manhattan.

In the end, the reason so many expats moved here is because the last crash made it crazy affordable. Another one will do the same. Eventually the cycle will repeat, and expats wont be impacted one whit, but the locals will continue to suffer, and yes, I do think they need a national overhaul on how they approach problems. But I didn't come here to change Argentines, I came here to get to know them...

Peace~

They are just pumping 1500-2500 dollar a month into the economy that is cash-starved.
 

John.St

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steveinbsas said:
... The haves already have the property and the money. Why would they sell off cheaply, and to whom?
Right on target, Steve.

The one thing they won't do is to sell inmobiliarias, except if completely desperate.

Inmobiliarias, precious metals and gems, food, and the like, are the only things that always keep their real value, inflation and crisis or no.
 

John.St

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Rad said:
This Simon Blabbermouth again.

"remember, these are the people who set the trains on fire last year because they weren’t running on time."

AFAIK they did not set any train on fire, it was the ticket booths and it was in April or May 2007, not last year - I was on the Belgrano station (Tigre line) the day before and in BsAs for a week or so at that time.

Also the reason was not that the trains weren’t running on time, it was in frustration because, although it took place in the afternoon rush hours, nobody did anything sensible about a stuck train that blocked the entire station for 2 or 3 hours, and not for the first time.

Any non-ferrocarril-official would conceive the excellent idea to haul the train away, but not those in charge.

Compare this minor incidence to riots in e.g. the US like those in LA, those in Paris two years ago, in Danmark last year, in <mile long list of incidences> - a ripple on a small lake, cherry-picked to underscore his point. (i.e. grab red berries, pretend the green or rotten ones aren't there).

"They [the Kirchners] are among the most anti-market leaders in the world whose policies have continued to waste and squander Argentina’s natural wealth."

Jeez, this has been part of Argentinian politics for centuries, strongly aumented since about 1900 - it's hacienda politics: raise cattle, export beef, import luxury, no need to show civismo and take care of los pobres, let them eat cake.
 

John.St

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rivardco said:
There is little "dig you well before you are thirsty."
This is not a specific Argentinian problem, it is the same in every country in Latin America, which I know and have visited: Mexico, Guatemala, Cuba, Brasil, Uruguay, Argentina and Chile.

It seems as if people are simply unable to make long time plans, but they are extremely good at improvising.

I have wondered why for a long time, because the people of Lat.Am. are as intelligent as everybody else I have met world wide; also why a lot of other things more or less in the same line.

My own answer has gradually ripened into (I admit that I may not understand some hiddden causes):

1. "When nobody in charge on government, province or municipality level make long time plans, it is hopeless for me to do so, as someone is going to desbaratar (English: overthrow, I think is the best expression) any of my plans with a new law, decrete, tax or whatever, before I have realized as much as a quarter of my plans."

2. The metronome election (click-clack-click-clack) - as a protest - of representatives from the opposite party, so no government can sail a straight course for any extended period of time, thus ensuring that chaos will prevail.

3. A complete lack of civismo - I am not responsible for anyone else or for anything that happens - why not drop trash in street, when everybody else does, why not drive like a crazy when everybody else does, why not do whatever, when everybody else does.

4. In Lat.Am. there are no real grass root movements. Everybody is willing to scream, shout, carry banners, throw stones and bottles, burn tires, block the roads, ..., so their agression relieve them of frustrations.


The only way to change things is to threaten the politicians into fixing what is broken.

How to really, really threaten politicians excluding violence?
You make it clear to them that they won't get reelected.

No reelection = no longer access to bribes, no longer thieving public means, no longer laying your hands on pork barrels and all those other nice things in life they enjoy.

Stop shouting, stop making banners; build a strong movement instead and use the quiet and intimidating "Godfather" tone: Do me a favour (sobrentendido: or start learning how to use a broom and a showel).

(sobrentendido: I don't recall the English word, which isn't in any of my Esp/En dictionaries either = you don't say it in so many words, but the other party understands what will happen if not ...)

Several other solutions and known problems outstanding, many of them related to civismo.
 

soulskier

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steveinbsas said:
I suggest John.St and Soulskier start their own website for expats living outside BA.

Why? Are you saying we aren't welcome here?
 

davonz

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A mother of a friend here told me once.. "the problem with argentina is that there were to many italians and spanish who came here and not enough germans." She was totally serious, and thinks the spanish and italians are lazy and unproductive and the germans are hard working and very productive.. She is 1/2 italian and 1/2 english/australian.
 
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