Is Argentina on the verge of another crisis?

[surfing]

"Stop! Don't! Come back!"

Like Mike Teevee you have been warned!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GDLkXKQ1Ydo&feature=related

 

[Mano Negra]

I have made the same consideration as you to move to Argentina, but I would advise against it, because of the bad and worsening economy. Instead, I changed my plans to divide my time between Argentina and Belgium (for now).

My plan is to set up a company at home. I will go to Argentina for a couple of months and research some ideas, without having an income. Therefore my company will be making losses, which I can recover from taxes the year after when I return to Belgium and earn over 10 times what I can make in Argentina. I might keep switching between Argentina and Belgium with the same strategy or I may move to another place indefinitely, I do not know yet.

Moving to Argentina permanently is a financially unsound decision. You cannot earn a lot and if you would have assets to compensate for that, you are required to pay a wealth tax.

Since 2001, Argentina has permanently been in crisis, the crisis just got a bit less severe by the big increase in soy bean prices, which allowed the Argentine government to stimulate the economy with subsidies. However, the effects of this are wearing out and you see the government becoming ever more desperate trying to maintain the status quo.

Unfortunately, the economy has not been restructured since the 2001 crisis (which would be the normal way out), instead it has been further dismantled. The family I stayed with last August-September complained that the government is destroying the middle class. The strategy of the current government is to buy votes by handing out subsidies. They have been spending more and more and while doing so ever taking more money from ever more sources.

The Argentinian economy could rebound after the default, because the high soy prices caused a budget surplus. Now the surplus has been spent as well. That is why the government is making ever more drastic measures to get quick cash:

Before the reelection of the government in October, Argentina had politicised the national statistics agency, to lie about inflation and economic growth and it forced every importer to export more than to import, that is e.g. why Porsche is selling Argentinian wine.

Since October, I remember the following happening:
* The government tries to fix the peso/dollar rate
* It makes it very difficult to exchange peso to dollar
* exporters are forced to convert the currencies they receive from exports to peso
* imports are blocked, even with countries that import more from Argentina than they export to Argentina
* now aparently Argentinian debit cards will be blocked in foreign countries as well.

All at a time when the economy of 2 of the 4 biggest trading partners of Argentina, the US and Europe is still weak and the economy of the 2 other biggest trading partners, Brazil and China is weakening.

I think it only makes sense to permanently move to Argentina if you want to become as insecure as a porteño ;-)

The only problem with your strategy is the living in Belgium part. A country so boring that even the French get away with making jokes about it!!!!

 

[toongeorges]

The only problem with your strategy is the living in Belgium part. A country so boring that even the French get away with making jokes about it!!!!

Compared to Argentina, Belgium is very stable and wealthy. If you call it boring because French and Dutch make jokes about us, well yeah, but many rich French and Dutch live in Belgium, since as opposed to these 2 countries, Belgium does not have a wealth tax and capital gains tax. Especially now the socialist candidate for presidency in France is proposing a tax of 75% for the rich, many French are considering moving to Belgium.

Belgium has 1/4th the population of Argentina, yet its economy is 25% bigger. Except for the high taxes on labour (not capital), Belgium is a good place to live and work.

The only things that are boring here are the weather and the girls. The weather is bad everywhere in Northern Europe. The girl thing is also very much a European problem. I know the stories of cheating and manic depressive Argentinians. Here on the other hand, people have been conditioned to receive rather than give and to be independent. It is very hard to have committed relationships here, yet it is straightforward to get along.

The passion is nowhere as in Argentina, I have never seen people kiss here the way I have seen in Argentina. I guess two strengths Argentina has left are its beautiful inland country (to live like a gaucho as Steve) and its passion. It is interesting enough for me to go and visit Argentina, but it is not enough for me to stay. I think if I'd stay in Argentina, I'd lose my mind, whereas in Belgium I can have a peace of mind. I think living in both countries might give me the best of both.

 

[niceguyeddie]

Bloody hell, I think I fell asleep at least two times while reading your post. The Belgian people are just as boring as their homeland....

Compared to Argentina, Belgium is very stable and wealthy. If you call it boring because French and Dutch make jokes about us, well yeah, but many rich French and Dutch live in Belgium, since as opposed to these 2 countries, Belgium does not have a wealth tax and capital gains tax. Especially now the socialist candidate for presidency in France is proposing a tax of 75% for the rich, many French are considering moving to Belgium.

Belgium has 1/4th the population of Argentina, yet its economy is 25% bigger. Except for the high taxes on labour (not capital), Belgium is a good place to live and work.

The only things that are boring here are the weather and the girls. The weather is bad everywhere in Northern Europe. The girl thing is also very much a European problem. I know the stories of cheating and manic depressive Argentinians. Here on the other hand, people have been conditioned to receive rather than give and to be independent. It is very hard to have committed relationships here, yet it is straightforward to get along.

The passion is nowhere as in Argentina, I have never seen people kiss here the way I have seen in Argentina. I guess two strengths Argentina has left are its beautiful inland country (to live like a gaucho as Steve) and its passion. It is interesting enough for me to go and visit Argentina, but it is not enough for me to stay. I think if I'd stay in Argentina, I'd lose my mind, whereas in Belgium I can have a peace of mind. I think living in both countries might give me the best of both.

 

[katti]

The only problem with your strategy is the living in Belgium part. A country so boring that even the French get away with making jokes about it!!!!

I agree, and being a belgian I am allowed to do so

 

[katti]

Belgium does not have a wealth tax and capital gains tax.

... for now

 

[katti]

I think if I'd stay in Argentina, I'd lose my mind, whereas in Belgium I can have a peace of mind. I think living in both countries might give me the best of both.

True that some first world people could never live here. Every time I go back, I realize I took the right decision to move here...

Maybe there is a crisis coming, (they have been predicting that since 2001), maybe not. The country sure has a lot of issues (politically and economically), but if you earn in dollars or euros this is a great place to be. And compared to the life in Belgium, no matter how high the inflation is, it is still cheaper then living there.

The only thing one will regret, is the risks they didn't take.
We made the decision, we took the risk, and we didn't regret it for a second.

 

[French jurist]

About Belgium: I've never lived there but I've been to quite many parties there when I was 18/20 yo. They know how to party.

Belgian people are quite nice in my view, like the people from North of France "qui ont dans le coeur le soleil qu'ils n'ont pas dans le ciel" (they have in the heart the sun they don't have in the sky).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5-N4Dbok34
(the "flat" country)

Belgian politicians are great as well, even more on the French side like Michel Daerden who likes water...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CC4M50bzyqQ

I wouldn't mind living in Brussels, at mid-distance between Paris & Amsterdam... Good location I'd say! Also an interesting city for its architecture and such.

And Belgian girls are quite hot imho.


Mais une fois !

 

[toongeorges]

Bloody hell, I think I fell asleep at least two times while reading your post. The Belgian people are just as boring as their homeland....

Vote Max for president

See 1:14 at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0ZL2GD93dA

 

[toongeorges]

Belgian politicians are great as well, even more on the French side like Michel Daerden who likes water...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CC4M50bzyqQ

I wouldn't mind living in Brussels, at mid-distance between Paris & Amsterdam... Good location I'd say! Also an interesting city for its architecture and such.

There is a difference between French and Dutch politicians in Belgian. A couple of years ago, 6 French politicians made a 3 week 10000 euro per person study trip to the US visiting the grand canyon etcetera. There came a lot of criticism on this mainly from the Dutch part, so the 6 politicians agreed to let a commision of 9 people investigate the trip. 5 of the 9 people were 5 of the 6 who had been on the trip.

Brussels is not considered Belgian anymore, since it has less than 33% native Belgian people and is projected to have less than 20 % native people in a couple of years from now.