Is Argentina Still a Good Deal?

[oddDistribution]

Yeah I meant sites like numbeo.

Sure, I don't think it would be wrong to say "pretty close to each other in cost now", BA used to be ridiculously cheap, but considering how expensive Sao Paulo grocery stores has always been (one of the highest in Brazil I guess), Buenos Aires still feels okay to me in comparison while shopping around. As others said though, the future is not very clear with the direction of dollar blue and never ending price increases pesos.

If you are seriously interested in Brazil as an alternative, checking more affordable cities would not be a bad idea.

Yea, and want to check out Curitiba and Salvador. Floripa is nice too.

 

[NeoWonk]

There's an old saying that "the cure for high prices is high prices". How long before this take hold depends upon what percentage of the population have inflation adjusted wages. I've been coming here for 15 years and short term rental properties have gone down in real dollar terms. Before AirBNB, my favorite apartment was a $800 plainly furnished, rather drab, studio - but I loved the view into a big interior garden in Recoleta. It didn't even have a washing machine. Fifteen years later, I can still get a similar apartment for about the same nominal price. The folks overseas buying Argentina soybeans or wine or shrimp couldn't care less about what the level of Argentine inflation is - if the dollar price of the item is too high, they'll go elsewhere. The fact that the dollar based short term rental market is stable, just shows this inflation surge is just the crazy Argentine monetary system doing it periodic schizo thing. The folks here will simply stop buying because they can't afford things and the prices will come back down (in dollar terms) to where they were before - like they always have. This time is NOT different.

 

[oddDistribution]

There's an old saying that "the cure for high prices is high prices". How long before this take hold depends upon what percentage of the population have inflation adjusted wages. I've been coming here for 15 years and short term rental properties have gone down in real dollar terms. Before AirBNB, my favorite apartment was a $800 plainly furnished, rather drab, studio - but I loved the view into a big interior garden in Recoleta. It didn't even have a washing machine. Fifteen years later, I can still get a similar apartment for about the same nominal price. The folks overseas buying Argentina soybeans or wine or shrimp couldn't care less about what the level of Argentine inflation is - if the dollar price of the item is too high, they'll go elsewhere. The fact that the dollar based short term rental market is stable, just shows this inflation surge is just the crazy Argentine monetary system doing it periodic schizo thing. The folks here will simply stop buying because they can't afford things and the prices will come back down (in dollar terms) to where they were before - like they always have. This time is NOT different.

I'm not sure because a lot of people say that Argentina was expensive before and the exchange rate was keeping it artificiality low.

On the other hand people tend to overreact to short term trends.

Agreed that the higher prices should limit demand which in turn should lower prices. At least in principle.

 

[NeoWonk]

Yes, people overreact to short term trends. Here's a quote from a BAexpat whinging back in 2012:

WTH. If I were in the US, I could buy a 36 oz bag of high quality coffee beans at Wegmans (sigh.. miss that store) for 12.99.

So lets compare. My coffee here (at the official rate) costs $35USD. At the blue rate, it becomes a "bargain" at $25 USD. And in the US - $12.99.

My prices are out of control whine.

So I just got back from the supermarket where I bought a 1KG bag of coffee beans. Ristretto Cabrales - not exactly fancy. And I bought it in Moreno - not exactly fancy. At Carrefour - not exactly a fancy supermarket. 157 pesos!:eek::eek: WTH. If I were in the US, I could buy a 36 oz bag of...

baexpats.org

In my experience going back over 15 years. 80% of the time prices are say 1/2 of the US. 10% of the time, prices approach the US (unleash the whinging). The other 10% of the time the prices are super bargains, approaching 1/3 the price of the US - under this scenario you won't hear a peep from the BAexpats.

 

[oddDistribution]

Yes, people overreact to short term trends. Here's a quote from a BAexpat whinging back in 2012:

My prices are out of control whine.

So I just got back from the supermarket where I bought a 1KG bag of coffee beans. Ristretto Cabrales - not exactly fancy. And I bought it in Moreno - not exactly fancy. At Carrefour - not exactly a fancy supermarket. 157 pesos!:eek::eek: WTH. If I were in the US, I could buy a 36 oz bag of...

baexpats.org

In my experience going back over 15 years. 80% of the time prices are say 1/2 of the US. 10% of the time, prices approach the US (unleash the whinging). The other 10% of the time the prices are super bargains, approaching 1/3 the price of the US - under this scenario you won't hear a peep from the BAexpats.

So, which of those scenarios are we in right now?

 

[NeoWonk]

So, which of those scenarios are we in right now?

We're in one of those rare 10% times when prices approach the US and Europe. Conversely, by Spring, I wouldn't be surprised if we were in one of those rare 10% times when Argentina is a super bargain.

 

[oddDistribution]

We're in one of those rare 10% times when prices approach the US and Europe. Conversely, by Spring, I wouldn't be surprised if we were in one of those rare 10% times when Argentina is a super bargain.

I hope you're right, but if the 90% was the direct result of dysfunctional policies that are being corrected then I don't think we can be sure things will revert to that state even if that was the most common scenario previously.

 

[NeoWonk]

I hope you're right, but if the 90% was the direct result of dysfunctional policies that are being corrected then I don't think we can be sure things will revert to that state even if that was the most common scenario previously.

That is a valid point. If Argentina can really correct the dysfunctional policies of 70 plus years then, yes, they would return to the high standard of living for Argentines and the concurrent high prices for foreigners that existed 70 years ago. For the sake of Argentina and its people, I hope that happens. BAexpats can pound sand or move to Columbia, Vietnam, etc.

But what is the likelihood of Argentina reversing 70 years of dysfunctional policies versus the likelihood of things going back to the way they’ve been for all of our lifetimes? Money printing is so easy and it gives you a Fugazzeta today for 10,000 pesos tomorrow.

 

[on the brink]

My two cents' contribution:

In 2016, with a 16 pesos/dollar, my expensas were 281 dollars.
In february 2024 with 1000 pesos/dollar, they were 70 dollars
In March 2024, with 980 pesos/dollar, expensas were adjusted to almost double and are now 130 dollars.

Still, half of what they were in the much-yearned-for "Good Old Days"

 

[oddDistribution]

That is a valid point. If Argentina can really correct the dysfunctional policies of 70 plus years then, yes, they would return to the high standard of living for Argentines and the concurrent high prices for foreigners that existed 70 years ago. For the sake of Argentina and its people, I hope that happens. BAexpats can pound sand or move to Columbia, Vietnam, etc.

But what is the likelihood of Argentina reversing 70 years of dysfunctional policies versus the likelihood of things going back to the way they’ve been for all of our lifetimes? Money printing is so easy and it gives you a Fugazzeta today for 10,000 pesos tomorrow.

It's not like they would have to go back and look at everything done in the last 70 years and fix everything. They just need to have good policies going forward.

My two cents' contribution:

In 2016, with a 16 pesos/dollar, my expensas were 281 dollars.
In february 2024 with 1000 pesos/dollar, they were 70 dollars
In March 2024, with 980 pesos/dollar, expensas were adjusted to almost double and are now 130 dollars.

Still, half of what they were in the much-yearned-for "Good Old Days"

That's your total monthly expenses? How can it be that low..