nikad said:
I believe in premium areas there will always be demand ( Recoleta, Barrio Parque, Palermo Chico, etc for example ) however I see more and more " for sale " signs all over the city, several on brand new buildings, and lately the addition of " or Rent "...this means late investors trying to get out and stay liquid, while others have already sold at sky high prices. Sales are being closed at 10% less of the pubished prices, rental prices are being negotiated more ( there was an article on La Nacion last Saturday ), I believe only people that look for their primary home are buying nowadays, the rest are awaiting for prices to drop +/- 30%, especially if the peso is devalued. The local system doesn´t guarantee anything, especially if they confiscate the private retirement funds, so I honestly doubt this will be appealing for any investors...
Well, the peso HAS already BEEN devalued by over 10% recently (3% in the past week alone). This morning I read that it would "stabilize" at 3.5 by December, but who knows where it will be then...or in six months? Even so, as real estate prices are quoted in dollars, I doubt if there will be anything like a 30% reduction in prices, even if there is a 30% reduction in the value of the peso. Anyone waiting for that to happen is likely to be disappointed.
With double digit inflation (as high as 30%) and no mortgages, why would there be a massive reduction in prices of real estate? Money in the brick beats money in the bank in Argentina, and real estate prices have not even kept up with the rate of inflation as compared to the price increases of many other goods in the past year...or even the past six months. Currency (in dollars or pesos) can lose a lot of value in a short time. It usually takes longer for property prices to decline, and even if there is an economic downturn in Argentina, inflation alone might keep the real estate prices where they are now well into the future.
What some might consider "sky high" prices in BA are no doubt still attractive to foreign investors when they compare apartments in Recoleta to those in Paris or London. No, Buenos Aires isn't Paris, but its still a low cost alternative for expats like me. Nevertheless, as Pericles has pointed out, most of the buyers in the better areas here are Argentinos who are moving (at least some of) their wealth (cash) into real estate. Salaried individuals may not be able to buy in theses areas, but entrepreneurs and those with "family money" can, have, and will continue to do so, especially if they are buying a place to live as well as looking for a "secure" place for their wealth.
For a dramatic reduction in prices, there would have to be a massive "sell off" here, and that could happen if the market is suddenly flooded with properties by desperate sellers needing cash. Then prices probably WOULD drop as supply exceeds demand. This happened briefly in 2002, but in far lower numbers than many today realize. Business owners needing cash to meet short term financial obligations made up the bulk of those sellers, and some lost their businesses anyway, as the vast number of Argentinos with money in banks (or pesos in the mattress) lost most of that wealth overnight. They were not left in any position to buy property, either.
The best website I've found to see available Argentine real estate is:
http://www.zonaprop.com.ar. If you use the filters you can narrow the search. For example:
zonaprop.com >
Venta >
Departamentos >
Capital Federal >
Capital Federal >
Palermo
It's possible to search other neighborhoods by changing the filter.
There still are apartments available in Capital Federal for $1000 per square meter. They just aren't in as desirable areas as Recoleta or Palermo.
In my opinion, the idea that private apartments might be seized by the government is pretty far fetched; about as likely as another military coup. In that case, all bets are off. Even during the military rule of the 70's and 80's there was never a massive abrogation of property rights and confiscation of private apartments, was there?