Is the expat party coming to an end?

[sergio]

What will be the likely consequences for expats?

 

[PhillyD]

IMO Short term the Peso will be devalued, depending on how much and how long is a real unknown of the unknowns.

If inflation doesn’t get under control and the poverty rate reduced it will be difficult for the country to recover.

Unrest and turmoil is not a good thing for the expat community if things really start getting bad.

Again just my opinion.

 

[sergio]

IMO Short term the Peso will be devalued, depending on how much and how long is a real unknown of the unknowns.

If inflation doesn’t get under control and the poverty rate reduced it will be difficult for the country to recover.

Unrest and turmoil is not a good thing for the expat community if things really start getting bad.

Again just my opinion.

Dollarisation will take time if Congress even allows it. If he can follow through with his core plans the situation will stabilise with what will surely be higher prices including higher wages. In this sense Argentina would be a more predicatble and secure country but the social ienquality that the current system and leaders have engendered will dimnish. That will be a disadvantage for those currently with dollars who enjoy the high life as evidenced by the frequent discussions here about which high end parrilla is best.

 

[wrangler]

Congress will likely reject dollarization. It's not just expats who benefit from the current system, but also government officials and corporations. It seems highly doubtful that he will be successful. In order for him to achieve this, Argentina would have to borrow a significant amount of money and implement a level of fiscal discipline that we don't possess. Having said that, our party is likely to be diminished somewhat, as inflation hits the main economies of the world. The current global dynamics will work against Milei

 

[Rich One]

Dollarisation will take time if Congress even allows it. If he can follow through with his core plans the situation will stabilise with what will surely be higher prices including higher wages. In this sense Argentina would be a more predicatble and secure country but the social ienquality that the current system and leaders have engendered will dimnish. That will be a disadvantage for those currently with dollars who enjoy the high life as evidenced by the frequent discussions here about which high end parrilla is best.

Dollarization is at best a Third generation measure..! For the 2nd. year perhaps..! Without providing time frames is just a "pie in the sky". In the meantime the Xchange gap will be wider.

 

[lunar]

... In the meantime the Xchange gap will be wider.

What gap? I am under the impression that following "liberalization", there will be a single exchange rate determined by the market, no?

 

[Jimbob]

The gap that exists at the moment. Hence "in the mean time". Well thats how I read it anyway.

 

[Rich One]

What gap? I am under the impression that following "liberalization", there will be a single exchange rate determined by the market, no?

NO. Milei stated that to lift the Cepo would require at best 18 months or so. A free for all..?

 

[Ries]

I thought the expat party ended by 2012 or so. The years following the coralito were full of backpackers, crustpunks, couchsurfers, and wide eyed dreamers. I remember the arty couple getting all the international press for their funky highrise apartment, the seemingly weekly meetings with new arrivals who had bought $25,000 apartments in Palermo, the global graffiti artists, and so on. All gone, fifteen years ago now.

 

[Rich One]

Milei must resolve the Leliqs issue (peso bond debt) , before any dollarization attempts