Here is the hard data. I’m confused, there is a big difference between this info and the one we read in newspapers, seema the Central Bank is publishing some unaccurate info because according to it the usd price should be around 30.
I think that what i mean is quite clear, but i will try to make it even clearer, If the interest rate jump to let say 40% for a week or a month or two, you cannot say inflation is going to be 40% specially if the one actually taking this measure is the central bank and is not what a bank will pay you if you lend them money.
Now if this is not just something temporal that will be corrected as soon as the market settle down, then you could start thinking that this interest rate could reflect inflation, but even then is not quite true neither, a high inflation rate sucks the money that normally flows to consumption making harder for business to rise prices in the short term, when there is someone sucking money from the economy there is less money to consume so people will prioritize goods with lower price (of course this is even more true in country's that have more competition between company's than Argentina).
Resuming in the long term there is a correlation between interest rate and inflation but this doesn't hold true for the short term, so to tell 4 days after the government announce a interest rate of 40% that the inflation rate for the entire year is going to be 40% is just gambling without much of a clue.
Sorry i wanted to make it short but when i started writing i just forgot my self. In any case i agree with most of what you say in a way, but you are oversimplifying things, to let the dollar rise after 15 years of K continuous devaluations, will have little impact on the cost structure. In a couple of months or a year top all the cost will be up by almost the same amount you allowed the dollar to rise, normally in a country that put less attention on the dollar to set it owns prices and that is more used to a stable currency this can have an effective impact on competitiveness, rising exports of the local production, but unfortunately Argentinean are by this point so use to devaluation, that doing that is not going to help much.
Lamarque just 6 months ago you disagreed with me regarding my inflation prognosis for 2018 but it actually is a understatement as inflation this year will be close to 50% the highest it has been for over 20 years . Argentina is in very dire straits but the media is trying to keep up diverted with sex scandals and other topics while peoples lives are suffering very bad .
Inflation nation. When I got here I bought Polo Ala Linea for 150 pesos and a decent sized chicken. Same place one year 3 months later 270 pesos and a smaller chicken. That is the situation in basic terms.
Yes, this pretty much accurately sums it up. Argentina is a mess and most likely always will be. I've mentioned it many times but the system is pretty much broken. Too much corruption, inefficiency, no working judicial system, employment and labor laws are horrible and tax system is non-functional as well.
Most of the smart expats have already left Argentina. Those that stayed or still have roots understand that Argentina will most likely always be unstable in between short periods of stability. You gotta accept and love Argentina for what it is.