Lockdown could last another 6 to 10 weeks

[Pierre Smith]

Protests NOW at the Obelisco, interrupting traffic . Drivers of Interurban buses unpaid since March. The House is in Order?

They're protesting against the lockdown? For more money? Against the US' police forces?

 

[Jeremias]

Lockdown could last another 6 to 10 weeks
....and Economic Depression could last what, 6 to 10 months? years?

 

[Bajo_cero2]

Economic depression is happening worldwide with or without quarantine.

 

[Bajo_cero2]

I suspect that is very optimistic. I am expecting -- especially with cases spreading -- for the quarantine to continue through the year.

The Pandemic decree is valid until March 16 2021 more or less.

 

[antipodean]

Economic depression is happening worldwide with or without quarantine.

Not to the same extent. Argentina is much worse and actually depressed in economic and real terms.

For example in Europe, Canada, Australia, Asia etc it is recession (not depression) also they have access to cash and have a better safety net to support affected business owners and employees. Unemployment, while higher than usual, in most countries overseas is less likely to be structural and long term like here in Argentina due to more investment and more flexible labor laws and a better educated workforce making it easier for affected workers and business owners to adapt.

Most developed counties are already returning to normal with the majority of their workforce back at work and there is light at the end of the tunnel. They are also out of quarantine and have managed to get the virus under control in less time than here. Even South Africa, which is very similar to Argentina, has similar levels of infection and fatalities is already reopening their economy only in a fraction of the time.

The true test will only be seen from next year when we see recovery curves and as always see the rest of the world going in one direction and Argentina doing its own thing.

Since I do business with the outside world I get to see first hand every day how the world is coping on four continents. There is no comparison in either lockdown measures, safety net, health situation or economy - the rest of the world adapts while Argentina just stands still and keeps digging itself deeper into the ground on both health and economic fronts.

 

[Redpossum]

Not to the same extent. Argentina is much worse and actually depressed in economic and real terms.

For example in Europe, Canada, Australia, Asia etc it is recession (not depression) also they have access to cash and have a better safety net to support affected business owners and employees. Unemployment, while higher than usual, in most countries overseas is less likely to be structural and long term like here in Argentina due to more investment and more flexible labor laws and a better educated workforce making it easier for affected workers and business owners to adapt.

Most developed counties are already returning to normal with the majority of their workforce back at work and there is light at the end of the tunnel. They are also out of quarantine and have managed to get the virus under control in less time than here. Even South Africa, which is very similar to Argentina, has similar levels of infection and fatalities is already reopening their economy only in a fraction of the time.

The true test will only be seen from next year when we see recovery curves and as always see the rest of the world going in one direction and Argentina doing its own thing.

Since I do business with the outside world I get to see first hand every day how the world is coping on four continents. There is no comparison in either lockdown measures, safety net, health situation or economy - the rest of the world adapts while Argentina just stands still and keeps digging itself deeper into the ground on both health and economic fronts.

I also do business with people all over the world. I teach EFL online. CoV and its effects is and has been the main subject of conversation with all my students for months. The three main countries from which my students come are Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and China, followed by South Korea, Taiwan, and Brazil. Most of my students are educated professional adults or graduate students working on advanced degrees. Asia was hit first, so of course Asia has progressed furthest along the path of recovery. Also, the three Asian countries named above are all heavily-industrialised with a solid manufacturing base. Argentina is none of these things.

The three Asian countries named above all had healthy economies when the CoV crisis began. Argentina went into this crisis with an economy devastated by four years of disastrous neo-con policies. Let's not forget that that Macri gave us three years in a row of ~50% inflation, compared to 22% in the last and worst year of Cristina's presidency. The Macri regime also left us with truly massive unemployment and gargantuan debt at both the national and provincial levels.

I do not agree with your predictions of doom and gloom. I have faith that Argentina will bounce back from this as she has bounced back from crisis after crisis, though the rest of 2020 will be very rough, that's a given. I do agree with your observation that the true test will be seen next year, but none of us have a crystal ball.

One stark fact cannot be denied. In the USA, roughly 107,000 of my countrymen are dead of CoV. In the UK it's around 40,000. Brazil has lost 30,000 or more. Here in Argentina, we are worried because the death toll has just passed 500. I'm glad to be here.

 

[antipodean]

Here are some interesting graphics I saw in an article this morning. These highlight the reasons I think that the Argentine government needs to own its failures and have the balls to change its strategy slightly - as we all end up much poorer for much longer without having really saved lives as a result. And unlike the rest of the world Argentina does not have the financial or political resources to get out of such a deep mess, meaning it cannot entirely blame the virus or macri or demonic forces or the train running late or murphy or whatever other excuse it throws out. Accountability and adaptability is needed in the present, not the past.

It is worth pointing out that Asian countries were not all hit at the same time like Europe, for example, if you look at Singapore vs. Thailand vs. Vietnam vs. China Korea vs. Japan there are big differences in the development of their own epidemics, with some of these countries only seeing wide spread of the virus after Argentina was already in lockdown. Prior to that countries like Singapore and Japan had largely managed to contain it. Also economically countries like Thailand and Vietnam are more similar to Argentina economically with huge wealth disparities and limited resources, but they are also doing better on both the health and economic side.

And for sure, I think everyone agrees that the USA, Russia or Brazil are not examples to follow. But by the government comparing Argentina against these extreme cases is a pretty cheap propaganda shot aimed at millions of "isolated and uninformed" Argentines when it ignores "moderate" countries who have been more successful in doing so.

 

[Somewhereinba]

Anyone who thinks Argentina is handling this well is smoking crack. They have killed the economy even more, those who are still getting paid are now way poorer due to devaluations - people are still dying and the death/infection rate is still going up. So basically they have managed to have the longest, strictest lockdown while fucking their economy the most and not yet flattened the curve or pushed it downward. Did anyone really expect these imbiciles to have any idea what they were doing? They also managed to fuck all this up while locking their citizens overseas and in other cities for months.... Only the corrupt morons in charge could achieve such greatness. And still there is no plan moving forward or increase in good testing or tracing. Instead they are arresting people trying to exercise riding bikes outdoors who put their masks down to breath properly. Good job. To top it off you have Alberto taking selfies with his mask off in front of hundreds of crammed 'supporters' who are also breathing all over each other.. Amazing

 

[Redpossum]

Anyone who thinks Argentina is handling this well is smoking crack.

Please allow me to politely point out that with this statement you have crossed the line into personal attacks, for the first time in this thread. Up to this point we have debated with courtesy and mutual respect. Please, attack the message, if you must, but not the messenger.

 

[Somewhereinba]

Please allow me to politely point out that with this statement you have crossed the line into personal attacks, for the first time in this thread. Up to this point we have debated with courtesy and mutual respect. Please, attack the message, if you must, but not the messenger.

Apologies for offending you - but I'm also offended by those who suggest that the way this has been handled is appropriate. You are not seeing the consequences this is having on peoples livelihoods which I am. The idea that death count is the best way to measure the success of the Argentine approach is wrong - this is way way more complicated than that. If death count was the final measure of success then we should all stay locked inside for eternity - there is a reason we drive cars and go outside - we accept the risk associated with it. Same with drinking alcohol or having an unhealthy lifestyle, or flying a plane or living in a developing country like Argentina with high crime rates.