Lockdown could last another 6 to 10 weeks

[Redpossum]

Apologies for offending you - but I'm also offended by those who suggest that the way this has been handled is appropriate. You are not seeing the consequences this is having on peoples livelihoods which I am. The idea that death count is the best way to measure the success of the Argentine approach is wrong - this is way way more complicated than that. If death count was the final measure of success then we should all stay locked inside for eternity - there is a reason we drive cars and go outside - we accept the risk associated with it. Same with drinking alcohol or having an unhealthy lifestyle, or flying a plane or living in a developing country like Argentina with high crime rates.

I'm not offended and you don't need to apologise. Anyone who has followed your posts on this forum over the years knows you are an intelligent, well-educated individual, and that you try to stay well-informed. But it is possible for two people to look at the same data and draw very different conclusions.

I do certainly agree that the economic effects of this quarantine are terrible, and I agree that looking only at the death toll would be foolish.

 

[Somewhereinba]

I'm not offended and you don't need to apologise. Anyone who has followed your posts on this forum over the years knows you are an intelligent, well-educated individual, and that you try to stay well-informed. But it is possible for two people to look at the same data and draw very different conclusions.

I do certainly agree that the economic effects of this quarantine are terrible, and I agree that looking only at the death toll would be foolish.

No hard feelings - I just want to see this country get back to at least some state of normal with people working and generating output. The longer this lockdown goes on the higher the poverty rate grows, the more the economy gets destroyed. Aerolineas paying their employees 75% to stay home for 2 months - where do people think this money comes from? There are consequences to all these actions. I get so frustrated when the city I live in hasn't had a case in 40 days yet I can't go for a run around the park? I know lots of business owners that are struggling to pay the bills - I am getting way more people ringing the bell asking for clothes/food. The middle class and the poor will be suffering for a long time. The Government can only keep printing pesos for so long.

 

[toongeorges]

You think the Peronists are at least trying to do good for the country? When I first came here almost 10 years ago, a normal Argentinian family was already explaining that the plan of the Kirchners was to eradicate the middle class, because poor people are easier to manipulate and the Peronists are the "party of the poor". More than caring about the country, it seems Peronists want to stay in power. They want people to be poor and be seen as their saviours. For this they need polarisation, like capitalism and the FMI are bad and they are good. Have you followed the political arguments of the last election? It was not about plans the Peronists had for the country, it was about Macri being evil and them being good.

The plan of the Peronists to stay in power is to be seen as saviours, for this they need the country to be in crisis and make sure that they do not get the blame of the crisis. You have so many Peronists fanboys out there, because they have been manipulated, but have no idea that they have been brainwashed.

Now to the coronavirus, Peronists see this as a gift they can exploit. They can push the country much more into poverty without taking the blame and even look good. Observe the polarisation: the president chooses the "side of life" and ignores "the economists that represent other interests". The Peronists are on the "good" side while the country goes to hell. And when people start realising that things are going worse, it will somehow be the fault of the "economists that were ignored, but managed to push through their evil plan".

Do not think Argentina will be back to normal soon. The Peronists will exploit the crisis as much as they can.

 

[Somewhereinba]

Very well said and exactly what is happening. Weaken the middle class who pay the most tax by devaluing their income through the printing of pesos. Push them to a point where they have to depend on Government handouts and you are now in control of them. Job losses in the middle class continue to occur with a legal system that punishes business with high taxes and laws that make employing people extremely risky. Add in the fact that there is a HUGELY overinflated system of Government employees as a % of the workforce who produce way less than what they output and find ways to rob the system and abuse it for their own benefit.

 

[on the brink]

The kirchneristas and their ilk are carefully ignoring Uruguay, which is dealing so well with the virus. Never even mention it.

And I say kirchneristas because every day it becomes clearer that Alberto is the classic useful idiot, and the Madam is the one holding the reins.

 

[antipodean]

Over the weekend I learned that 3 companies I know in capital and the interior have closed down. The promised state aid of ATP never arrived. The cash ran out.

One was a foreign company who refused to inject new capital knowing they would not be able to get it out again. So they literally cut their contracts and abandoned the market did a runner leaving their employees with a come and get me approach. The other 2 are small local businesses who handed back their keys and the owners don't have the means to pay off their employees so they will end up in court and paying back $20 a week for the rest of their lives.

These companies employ mostly unskilled people in depressed locations meaning the employees will have very difficult times getting new formal jobs any time soon. They also ended up without the much prized double indemnity or a peso to feed their families over the coming weeks until any ANSES payments are approved. Then what? A dignified life awaits them?

Don't even start me on the situation of my barber...

A stark reminder that policy means absolutely nothing when the money runs out but it means something in terms of how fast that money runs out. Jobs are being lost regardless of government policies prohibiting layoffs or "leading the world" in terms of avoiding bad unemployment statistics. The key and differentiating issue here in Argentina is that there is neither private or public capital available any time soon to invest in making new businesses to replace the lost businesses combined with a lack of any effective safety net and chronic (and age old) social inequality meaning the workers who loose their jobs now can easily find themselves further marginalised and end up in a villa with a lifetime of abject poverty ahead of them. This is a totally different prospect than a European or Asian worker who ends up unemployed.

With a more concise approach to quarantine and social isolation and fairer distribution of aid, the government would be able to focus aid to the areas that yes or yes need to stay closed to control the health situation and let other sectors continue with protocols based on mitigating health risks. These businesses can then generate revenues to stay afloat and self-help, or at least partially. If they allowed barbers to operate under strict protocols, the demand would definitely be there to allow them to pay their employees and the rent with a little left over to eat. Instead they suffer with fake promises of state aid while state employees sit at home on 100% of their salary.

None of this means choosing economy or health, it means health and economy. Making out that there must be a choice is just a political tool of mass manipulation.

 

[Somewhereinba]

Over the weekend I learned that 3 companies I know in capital and the interior have closed down. The promised state aid of ATP never arrived. The cash ran out.

One was a foreign company who refused to inject new capital knowing they would not be able to get it out again. So they literally cut their contracts and abandoned the market did a runner leaving their employees with a come and get me approach. The other 2 are small local businesses who handed back their keys and the owners don't have the means to pay off their employees so they will end up in court and paying back $20 a week for the rest of their lives.

These companies employ mostly unskilled people in depressed locations meaning the employees will have very difficult times getting new formal jobs any time soon. They also ended up without the much prized double indemnity or a peso to feed their families over the coming weeks until any ANSES payments are approved. Then what? A dignified life awaits them?

Don't even start me on the situation of my barber...

A stark reminder that policy means absolutely nothing when the money runs out but it means something in terms of how fast that money runs out. Jobs are being lost regardless of government policies prohibiting layoffs or "leading the world" in terms of avoiding bad unemployment statistics. The key and differentiating issue here in Argentina is that there is neither private or public capital available any time soon to invest in making new businesses to replace the lost businesses combined with a lack of any effective safety net and chronic (and age old) social inequality meaning the workers who loose their jobs now can easily find themselves further marginalised and end up in a villa with a lifetime of abject poverty ahead of them. This is a totally different prospect than a European or Asian worker who ends up unemployed.

With a more concise approach to quarantine and social isolation and fairer distribution of aid, the government would be able to focus aid to the areas that yes or yes need to stay closed to control the health situation and let other sectors continue with protocols based on mitigating health risks. These businesses can then generate revenues to stay afloat and self-help, or at least partially. If they allowed barbers to operate under strict protocols, the demand would definitely be there to allow them to pay their employees and the rent with a little left over to eat. Instead they suffer with fake promises of state aid while state employees sit at home on 100% of their salary.

None of this means choosing economy or health, it means health and economy. Making out that there must be a choice is just a political tool of mass manipulation.

None of that matters - they should be happy the Government protected them from COVID... Of course I'm being sarcastic.. It's sad to see. There will be employees who lost their jobs turning to crime to get bye. Sad state of affairs - Alberto and his cronies have really fucked this thing up. Their simplistic response that a 2 year old could come up with is disgraceful. The worst thing is they still refuse to accept the reality - they want to lock things down even more in BA... Crazy.

 

[on the brink]

It is in the peronistas' best interest to keep people poor, uneducated, and dependent on government handouts. That's the way they will stay in power.

The current government could not care less about the poor - the higher the unemployment climbs, the stronger they get.

 

[antipodean]

Peronism is a very scary political ideology and movement. It was inspired by European fascism and authoritarianism, born out of military coup and used (and uses) persecution and oppression of political option as well as exacerbating vicious class divides to hold on to power. Meanwhile it is "neither capitalist nor socialist" but there are a lot of private companies and business interests involved in making a lot of money from it all.

It idealises a military general and his first wife (who had a taste for Lanvin gowns and diamond tiaras) while its second first lady and president lead the military in the forced disappearance of people. The rest that followed have a long list of corruption scandals against their names. Minor details.

Today it clings to almost century old black and white photos and clips of fiery speeches and impassioned masses to invoke a sense of nostalgia for a past that is always, just so slightly, out of reach and better than the present. But it never projects images of a future. It speaks of creating more fair society but (with the exception of a few photo opportunities) has never actually reduced poverty or transformed villas into normal middle class neighbourhoods let alone neighbourhoods with paved roads and running water despite having been in charge of Argentina for longer than anyone else, it still always manages to be "someone else's fault". That "enemy of the people" again.

Politics here is tribal, footbalista mentality at its worst. The only thing keeping many of its followers so loyal and passionate, like any football fan, are their own XXL egos. To think differently would be to admit being wrong in the past, no matter how many championships their team looses since then, as long as they can still celebrate the odd win at a friendly match. It certainly does not help when the only thing you have to look forward to in life is a $10k discretionary payout to put some meat on your asado. Play with their emotions on one side and their stomachs on the other. Politics 101 - anyone would think many of our politicians / champagne-peronists living in Puerto Madero or Recoleta actually studied at university how to manipulate the masses while they are warm inside imaging how happy lives in the villas must be for their loyal followers because they turned on taps to 500 uninsulated shacks or opened a new soup kitchen named after Evita.

My opinion is that many Argentines want a middle ground solution but when it comes time to vote they don't even get the option. It is always one extreme or the other and nothing ever actually changes as a result of that.

 

[gracielle]

Its been over 70 days, in my 1bed apt its very difficult. I went walking yesterday and wanted to walk by the park, an officer said it was ONLY FOR PPL WITH KIDS AND/OR PETS. How does that make any sense?????!!! Indignant

Which park and in what neighborhood?