Long-Term Predictions For The Peso?

[Somewhereinba]

Im sorry. I honestly stopped reading when you quoted the CPI as accurate.

Agreed, also had a laugh that wages move with or higher than inflation.. Very funny. We must know different people.

 

[Matiasba]

I am a little amused when you say there is "no heavy industry" in argentina.
Certainly, its not the Ruhr or China- but for the size of the country, there actually IS heavy industry. There is a steel industry, Siderar, with a steel mill, and several processing plants downstream capable of making pipe and sheet.
There are shipyards.
There are several automobile factories.
There are tractor and agricultural implement factories.
There are foundries.
There are machine tool manufacturers.

Certainly, Argentina is not completely self sufficient in heavy industry, but it has the infrastructure, and possibility, to build cars, trucks, construction equipment, agricultural equipment, ships, and, without too much of a stretch, it could build trains and airplanes again, as it has on a small scale in the past.
It could increase its steel making capacity, but it does have 2.7 million metric tons a year steel making capacity right now.
It has Aluar, the one of the largest Aluminum smelters in South America.

There are things missing, for sure- but overall, heavy industry in Argentina is better than in dozens of other countries of similar size.

We have some industry but nothing compared from what we had. Siderar, Siderca, Aluar, Acindar... thats all a legacy from the industrial years...
We had a lot of automobile factories, we were one of the best, the ost important country in Latin America. Today we import a lot of automobile parts and we just ensamble. More than the half of the car is not produced here... in the 60s we had the main factories of Latin America here, like Renault, Mercedes Benz (trucks), Peugeot and VW... today we only have Toyota, we import VW from Mexico, and the rest, the majority, from Brazil.
We dont have heavy industry... the cars is the most important and sophisticated industry we have, which is more ensamble than anything else, but we dont have an EMBRAER, we dont produce weapons or planes, or tanks (as we used to) anymore... thats heavy industry, we had it but we dont anymore.

 

[Ries]

How on Earth will you start producing anything but Panamahats etc. without capital goods (machines)? Building e.g. a 380,000 ton bulk carrier based on handicraft without the help of machines is a tedious affair.

There are several dozen machine tool manufacturers in Argentina.
No, there is no shipyard big enough to build a huge bulk carrier.
But there are "machines" being made here, and, like many segments of the economy, if there was demand, they could produce.

 

[ajoknoblauch]

There are several dozen machine tool manufacturers in Argentina.
No, there is no shipyard big enough to build a huge bulk carrier.
But there are "machines" being made here, and, like many segments of the economy, if there was demand, they could produce.

They can't assemble iPhones, though...

 

[Hybrid Ambassador]

They can't assemble iPhones, though...

Pero futbol si, and beisbol no!

 

[ajoknoblauch]

Pero futbol si, and beisbol no!

Apparently, then, they can handle the simpler tasks.

 

[Ries]

They can't assemble iPhones, though...

Assembling iPhones requires government subsidies and low wages, not infrastructure.
FoxConn only adds a few bucks in value to the iPhone in China, assembling it.
A much larger percentage of the iPhone is made in Korea, the USA, France, and Italy.

Argentina is 29th, worldwide, in steel production, and 15th worldwide, in aluminum, and 19th, worldwide, in automobiles and motor vehicles.
Given its size, those are quite respectable numbers, and more significant than iPhones.

 

[Hybrid Ambassador]

We have some industry but nothing compared from what we had. Siderar, Siderca, Aluar, Acindar... thats all a legacy from the industrial years...
We had a lot of automobile factories, we were one of the best, the ost important country in Latin America. Today we import a lot of automobile parts and we just ensamble. More than the half of the car is not produced here... in the 60s we had the main factories of Latin America here, like Renault, Mercedes Benz (trucks), Peugeot and VW... today we only have Toyota, we import VW from Mexico, and the rest, the majority, from Brazil.
We dont have heavy industry... the cars is the most important and sophisticated industry we have, which is more ensamble than anything else, but we dont have an EMBRAER, we dont produce weapons or planes, or tanks (as we used to) anymore... thats heavy industry, we had it but we dont anymore.

Yeah, and Toyota is investing close to a US$Billion to expand its capacity there in Argentina and the numero uno exporter of automobile there in latin america..