PASO Election Results

[antipodean]

Results for today’s legislative elections are largely counted and are generally a repeat of the trend seen from the PASO.

https://resultados.gob.ar/elecciones/2/0/1/-1/-1

Peronism has lost control of the senate for the first time in it’s history.
Milei won 17%+ of the vote in CABA while JxC took 47%.
Frente de Todos came in at third place in Santa Cruz, the birthplace of Kirchnerism.

We are in for an interesting two years ahead.

 

[D.B. Cooper]

Results for today’s legislative elections are largely counted and are generally a repeat of the trend seen from the PASO.

https://resultados.gob.ar/elecciones/2/0/1/-1/-1

Peronism has lost control of the senate for the first time in it’s history.
Milei won 17%+ of the vote in CABA while JxC took 47%.
Frente de Todos came in at third place in Santa Cruz, the birthplace of Kirchnerism.

We are in for an interesting two years ahead.

This is the beginning of the end for Cristina and the K. as well as the Peronist Party. Good riddance. All those corruption charges are going to come back to haunt her. The next two years should be fun, watching as her empire crumbles

 

[antipodean]

IMO CFK has been shown as only being relevant amongst a certain class of public employees, Puerto Madero and Nordelta dwelling “empresarios” and the chori-pan crowd of the conurbano. She and her son will go extinct like the dinosaurs (And perhaps like Menemasaurus, die a senator for life)

The next two years however will be “Ah, pero congreso” versus “Ah, pero el presidente” in a context of extremely serious issues that simply cannot be overcome without first getting worse in the “short” term. Someone like Milei may have just positioned himself at the right place at the right time come 2023 as people get tired of the blame game between the same old faces and need a more drastic change.

 

[antipodean]

 

[on the brink]

IMO CFK has been shown as only being relevant amongst a certain class of public employees, Puerto Madero and Nordelta dwelling “empresarios” and the chori-pan crowd of the conurbano. She and her son will go extinct like the dinosaurs (And perhaps like Menemasaurus, die a senator for life)

From your mouth to God's ear.......

 

[Alpinista]

I dont share the viewpoint (optimism??) that the Ks are done, far less the Peronists.

If you look at the result in BA province (the most important one, by far), it is absolutely astonishing that still 38+% vote for this party. We are speaking about a crisis of historic proportions, with all indexes showing that most of them are worse off than two years ago. I dont want to start a discussion whether it was because of Macri’s inheritance, FMI, Covid etc. But is pretty clear that the officialism didn’t get many steps right, neither on national nor on provincial level.

If i might dare to make a forecast: this crisis is far from over. A financial crisis (devaluation) is a likely scenario, higher inflation rates as well, not to mention the crime situation (especially in the Conurbano). So the macroeconomic and social trend will not favour the Peronists over the next two years. Most likely, they will loose the presidency in two year’s time, with further losses in the senate and in the parliament.

BUT: the fundament of Peronism is so strong, they won’t go anywhere. And if the cracks within the JxC coalition start to show, if they want to do some structural changes, the Peronists will be back in no time.

 

[Newman_ZA]

Having followed this news I doubt they are going anywhere. In all likelihood, in a semi-stable (regular free and fair elections) multiparty democracy you will see that more and more people voting for parties that they think represent them. You will start seeing the big parties settling in around 20-30% of the vote then smaller parties getting less than 10%. In younger democracies or systems where their have been disruptions to the election system, you see big parties emerge with 50-70% of the vote. I think Argentina will fall into this pattern with more and more coalitions popping up as more people vote for smaller parties. Its the best thing for democracy.

Here is a paper also looking at the increase in coalition governance in the fedralised system of Argentina.

 

[antipodean]

Having followed this news I doubt they are going anywhere. In all likelihood, in a semi-stable (regular free and fair elections) multiparty democracy you will see that more and more people voting for parties that they think represent them. You will start seeing the big parties settling in around 20-30% of the vote then smaller parties getting less than 10%. In younger democracies or systems where their have been disruptions to the election system, you see big parties emerge with 50-70% of the vote. I think Argentina will fall into this pattern with more and more coalitions popping up as more people vote for smaller parties. Its the best thing for democracy.

Here is a paper also looking at the increase in coalition governance in the fedralised system of Argentina.

I do agree that this is how things will eventually end up as they have in some more “mature” countries in the region. However in the meantime Argentina is still hyper presidential and generally ruled by decree more than debate which dampens the impact of this somewhat. Not to mention you usually end up with only two options to choose from meaning it’s go big or go home.

I’m also optimistic that on a lot of points the smaller parties such as FIT (far left) and Avanza Libertad / Libertarians (far right) actually agree about many issues (that ironically FDT and JXC generally resist) such as reducing salaries of politicians, legalization of marijuana, exploring a parliamentary system to limit executive powers, universal income etc. Having more dependence on smaller parties to get things across the line will ultimately result in more interesting things being added to the agenda and perhaps more progress being made in finding real solutions for the problem called Argentina.

 

[Dougie]

What changes over the next two years because of this election?

 

[Rich One]

What changes over the next two years because of this election?

The government was able to reduce the gap in two months from the Paso...! In the next 2 years, with more handouts, they may obtain different results in 2023.