Poll: Which will kill more Argentines: the COV-19 Virus or the Quarantine?

[EL_TIGRE_de_Tigre]

Argentina has a lot more CV 19 cases than are being reported. Lifting the quarantine at this time of year will be a disaster. GET THE BODY BAGS READY - NO JOKE! And the unemployment numbers will be mind boggling even if they are under reported, because the proof will be the reality of those who don't work, don't eat, the rapid rise in crime and the lack of a pulse in the economy going forward.

 

[Fiscal]

Argentina has hundreds of thousands of undocumented immigrants, millions of people living in abject poverty, and millions of people living on the edge of poverty who were already paycheck to paycheck and barely making it. Shutting down the economy has doomed all of them, as well as all of the terrible, corrupt, and inefficient oligarch-like family owned mega businesses. The destruction of these mega businesses is a good thing. But I feel for all the poor and undocumented who are all completely screwed by this. And Fernandez has no real plan but to hope the US invents a cure ASAP or let 10% of Argentina's population die from coronavirus.

 

[EL_TIGRE_de_Tigre]

Good points Fiscal.

Not many people can see up to the horizon on this one.

Argentina is going into the fire from the frying pan! The Argentine economy has both feet in the grave for the next decade or so. People are going to miss huge chunks of their lives (At least the majority of them will.) I estimate that 75% of the total population will be severely impacted by the economic fall out of the shutdown. And of the other 25% ... MOST OF THEM ARE GOING TO BE KNOCKED DOWN A PEG OR TWO!

This will be worst than what happened in 2001 simply because the whole world has been impacted. Everyone, everywhere will be humbled except for the super wealthy.

 

[Bajo_cero2]

Argentina has hundreds of thousands of undocumented immigrants, millions of people living in abject poverty, and millions of people living on the edge of poverty who were already paycheck to paycheck and barely making it. Shutting down the economy has doomed all of them, as well as all of the terrible, corrupt, and inefficient oligarch-like family owned mega businesses. The destruction of these mega businesses is a good thing. But I feel for all the poor and undocumented who are all completely screwed by this. And Fernandez has no real plan but to hope the US invents a cure ASAP or let 10% of Argentina's population die from coronavirus.

Seems that it is the US who is without a plan, and letting people die. Numbers talks. See how many people cured against how many deaths. its is about 40% the ratio.
The work for looking for a vaccine is advanced here, also a drug for avoiding the spread.
Why you insist against something all the medical comunity agree? and something that facts show it does not works. Look at Brasil, today I saw a picture of Bolsonaro barbijo announcing Brasil is buying 240 million of them.
By the way, what is the word for barbijo?

 

[camberiu]

Hunger stalks Latin America's street vendors as empty sidewalks mean no customers

In the usually bustling streets of the downtown Santiago this week, Chilean great-grandmother Luz Maria Rios was ignoring a coronavirus quarantine and risking her health to sell Easter eggs. It is a scene repeated across Latin America where street vendors defy widespread quarantines to try to...

sg.yahoo.com

 

[artisans]

Argentina does so little testing that it's really hard to believe there are only 1500 cases. And when Argentina arbitrarily lifts the quarantine in the middle of winter, coronavirus will come roaring through el interior

Where are you getting numbers to support "Argentina does so little testing"? As I've read, they started out with one testing location and then opened 123 testing locations across the country. There's no indication I can read that suggests the government is suppressing the numbers by starving testing. If you read the daily Wikipedia corona virus results the daily new cases appear to be leveling.

 

[lunar]

Where are you getting numbers to support "Argentina does so little testing"? As I've read, they started ...

1,500 tests per day, 13,330 have been conducted from the beginning.

https://www.argentina.gob.ar/sites/default/files/08-04-20-reporte-matutino-covid-19.pdf

 

[Pierre Smith]

Bajo_Cero2 - I respect you a lot, but no way that the US is anything but a godsend.

By the end of this whole crazy moment, the United States will have spent 3-4 trillion dollars to stimulate its economy, which will save the world, and especially countries without the means to carry out their own stimulus programs.

Argentina is totally doomed without a major change in course. This coronavirus is like a natural disaster, except without any foreign aid, because all the rich countries are hit too.

America's stimulus programs are like an angel from heaven for Argentina, even if the benefits will be indirect.

 

[semigoodlookin]

Bajo_Cero2 - I respect you a lot, but no way that the US is anything but a godsend.

By the end of this whole crazy moment, the United States will have spent 3-4 trillion dollars to stimulate its economy, which will save the world, and especially countries without the means to carry out their own stimulus programs.

Argentina is totally doomed without a major change in course. This coronavirus is like a natural disaster, except without any foreign aid, because all the rich countries are hit too.

America's stimulus programs are like an angel from heaven for Argentina, even if the benefits will be indirect.

A little hyperbolic, but the general point is probably true.

 

[TheDonald]

I am a capitalistic as they come. But I find calls to open the economy and let the chinavirus spread unrestrained, to be puzzling.

My opinion is based on math. Bill Gates has made accurate predictions about chinavirus since day 1. He has predicted that if left unchecked, chinavirus could infect 50% of any population. There are a little over 40 million people in Argentina. Imagine Mr. Gates is wrong by a factor of 1, so only 25% of the Argentine population becomes infected if China virus were allowed to spread unrestrained. That's a little over 10 million people.

Now compare that 10 million people to ventilators in Argentina - last I read, there are 8.500 ventilators in Argentina. Big Al has asked China for 1.500 more, but who knows? Of those 8.500 ventilators, only 20% are available; 80% are in use for other ICU cases. So today, there are perhaps 1.700 ventilators available in Argentina (.2 x 8.500 = 1.700).

This is all guesswork and assumptions. But if over 10 million people in Argentina are infected with chinavirus over a 6-12 month period, and in the best case there are 2,000 ventilators at any given time, you can do the math. The percentage of infected patients that receive appropriate medical intervention would be de minimus. Literally millions of patients infected with chinavirus would have to go without medical intervention.

Say Argentina frees up every ventilator (ignoring the fact that other ICU patients would probably die without those ventilators), so there are 10.000 available - best case scenario. Say at the peak, there are a million Argentine chinavirus cases. This means only 1% of the positive cases would receive appropriate medical care.

People say the fatality rate of chinavirus is only 2%-4%. Fair enough - but that's with appropriate medical intervention. Given Ecuador's experience, the fatality rate without medical intervention seems a lot higher than 2%-4%.

Now here is the problem: a significant percentage of those affected with chinavirus survive due to medical intervention. I repeat: for those infected with chinavirus, medical intervention saves lives.Conclusion: if a country has more chinavirus cases than ventilators, then people who would live with medical intervention, will die. If our assumptions have any accuracy, then at the peak, 1% of Argentines infected with chinavirus would receive adequate medical care. 99% would not. That's an appalling ratio.

Elected leaders face a choice. Flatten the curve and minimize deaths, while crushing the economy. Or crush the economy and save literally thousands (or millions) of lives. There is also a short term/long term choice. The lives will be lost in the short term. If left unchecked, chinavirus will result in internet images of body bags and mass graves (like in Ecuador and NYC). That will happen today. Contrarily, the economic effects will be felt in the future. No one knows what is in store for Argentina's economy and the world economy. It is likely to be bad. But how bad? No one knows. But politicians will deal with that later. Death from chinavirus comes today. Economic recession comes tomorrow.

I don't like state intervention, destruction of capitalism or restriction of my movement. But for me, the math justifies the decision.