Poll: Which will kill more Argentines: the COV-19 Virus or the Quarantine?

[artisans]

1,500 tests per day, 13,330 have been conducted from the beginning.
https://www.argentina.gob.ar/sites/default/files/08-04-20-reporte-matutino-covid-19.pdf

On background, Argentina's testing abilities, from Buenos Aires Times...
The insinuation by OP was that Argentina is intentionally suppressing testing for Cov-19. The reality is otherwise, a chronically underfunded agency, called Instituto Malbrán. A sub-agency of Malbran, the INEI is the main testing centre for the detection of coronavirus in Argentina. Its fundamental activity is to follow the spread of respiratory virus worldwide to preview its arrival in Argentina. But this new pandemic, which exploded a few months ago in China, has not given time for any anticipatory vigilance.
...considering various factors such as the delays in transferring samples, given Argentina’s territorial extent and the transport difficulties, digital training is underway for the rapid diagnosis of coronavirus in laboratories in the City and Province of Buenos Aires, Córdoba, Chaco, Misiones, Santa Fe and Tierra del Fuego.
This project of decentralisation will be extended in a second stage to 35 laboratories in all 24 national jurisdictions. Working via the Internet has a precedent from 2009 when it was used to treat avian flu (626 deaths) and since then has continued functioning for cases of common virus.
The professionalism at the Malbrán continues to be the greatest (and perhaps only) protection Argentina has against the pandemic.

Underfunded staff at Malbrán Institute battle against coronavirus

The ANLIS-Malbrán Institute is on the front line against the Covid-19 pandemic but over the last decade the research institute has suffered heavy cuts.

www.batimes.com.ar

 

[semigoodlookin]

I am a capitalistic as they come. But I find calls to open the economy and let the chinavirus spread unrestrained, to be puzzling.

My opinion is based on math. Bill Gates has made accurate predictions about chinavirus since day 1. He has predicted that if left unchecked, chinavirus could infect 50% of any population. There are a little over 40 million people in Argentina. Imagine Mr. Gates is wrong by a factor of 1, so only 25% of the Argentine population becomes infected if China virus were allowed to spread unrestrained. That's a little over 10 million people.

Now compare that 10 million people to ventilators in Argentina - last I read, there are 8.500 ventilators in Argentina. Big Al has asked China for 1.500 more, but who knows? Of those 8.500 ventilators, only 20% are available; 80% are in use for other ICU cases. So today, there are perhaps 1.700 ventilators available in Argentina (.2 x 8.500 = 1.700).

This is all guesswork and assumptions. But if over 10 million people in Argentina are infected with chinavirus over a 6-12 month period, and in the best case there are 2,000 ventilators at any given time, you can do the math. The percentage of infected patients that receive appropriate medical intervention would be de minimus. Literally millions of patients infected with chinavirus would have to go without medical intervention.

Say Argentina frees up every ventilator (ignoring the fact that other ICU patients would probably die without those ventilators), so there are 10.000 available - best case scenario. Say at the peak, there are a million Argentine chinavirus cases. This means only 1% of the positive cases would receive appropriate medical care.

People say the fatality rate of chinavirus is only 2%-4%. Fair enough - but that's with appropriate medical intervention. Given Ecuador's experience, the fatality rate without medical intervention seems a lot higher than 2%-4%.

Now here is the problem: a significant percentage of those affected with chinavirus survive due to medical intervention. I repeat: for those infected with chinavirus, medical intervention saves lives.Conclusion: if a country has more chinavirus cases than ventilators, then people who would live with medical intervention, will die. If our assumptions have any accuracy, then at the peak, 1% of Argentines infected with chinavirus would receive adequate medical care. 99% would not. That's an appalling ratio.

Elected leaders face a choice. Flatten the curve and minimize deaths, while crushing the economy. Or crush the economy and save literally thousands (or millions) of lives. There is also a short term/long term choice. The lives will be lost in the short term. If left unchecked, chinavirus will result in internet images of body bags and mass graves (like in Ecuador and NYC). That will happen today. Contrarily, the economic effects will be felt in the future. No one knows what is in store for Argentina's economy and the world economy. It is likely to be bad. But how bad? No one knows. But politicians will deal with that later. Death from chinavirus comes today. Economic recession comes tomorrow.

I don't like state intervention, destruction of capitalism or restriction of my movement. But for me, the math justifies the decision.

Fair enough. However, 10 million infected is based on one guy's prediction. I accept you were being conservative with that number and I don't dispute that infection tally could happen. That said, the majority of those 10 million would require zero medical intervention, and even less a ventilator. But point taken, even then there would not be enough ventilators to go around.

So, let's say the 4% death rate (almost certainly too high because of undiagnosed recovery cases) based on 10 million infected. So, 400,000 dead which would be the worst case scenario. Few are predicting 400,000 deaths in Argentina. Either way, the question becomes will more than 400,000 people die from the economic fall-out over the coming months and years? For me, it is less an economic problem than deciding which outcome puts the most lives at risk long term.

Isolation is neccesary to combat any virus, but no-one here is calling for the complete lifting of the lockdown and I don't know if anyone has called for COVID-19 to spread unrestricted. What many are arguing, me included, is the damage this lockdown will cause could be disastrous and some of us question the need of a total lockdown. For clarity, I edge towards the lockdown currently being neccesary, but only because of poor decisions made by Argentina and the international community in early February. My opinion of that neccesity is degrading by the day.

 

[Pierre Smith]

Ventilators aren't going to save us:

80% of NYC's coronavirus patients who are put on ventilators ultimately die, and some doctors are trying to stop using them

Ventilators are an extreme attempt to get oxygen into patients' lungs, and some doctors want to find more efficient methods of treatment.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[NeoWonk]

Part of the reason for the disturbing images of bodies piling up is because of the regulations involving burying pandemic victims, infectious diseases, etc (see article). We have the issue of notorious unreliable tests. Everyone that tests positive for COV-19 and dies is pronounced to have died from COV-19. Also there are reports that COV-19 deaths get higher remuneration to the hospital from the US government. New York is considering classifying all people found dead in their homes to be COV-19 deaths, etc. https://www.breitbart.com/national-...-information-on-handling-coronavirus-remains/

 

[NeoWonk]

Ventilators aren't going to save us:

80% of NYC's coronavirus patients who are put on ventilators ultimately die, and some doctors are trying to stop using them

Ventilators are an extreme attempt to get oxygen into patients' lungs, and some doctors want to find more efficient methods of treatment.

www.businessinsider.com

This ICU doctor in NYC is saying that he's not seeing traditional pneumonia and that the ventilators might be doing more harm than good. Ventilators are for folks that are too weak and don't have muscle mass to breath on their own. The COV-19 patients have the muscle and strength to breath but they are not getting oxygen - as if they were at high altitude:

 

[perry]

This ICU doctor in NYC is saying that he's not seeing traditional pneumonia and that the ventilators might be doing more harm than good. Ventilators are for folks that are too weak and don't have muscle mass to breath on their own. The COV-19 patients have the muscle and strength to breath but they are not getting oxygen - as if they were at high altitude:

[/QUOTE]


Sounds frightening what this guy is stating . What is causing these extreme symptoms?

 

[NeoWonk]

This ICU doctor in NYC is saying that he's not seeing traditional pneumonia and that the ventilators might be doing more harm than good. Ventilators are for folks that are too weak and don't have muscle mass to breath on their own. The COV-19 patients have the muscle and strength to breath but they are not getting oxygen - as if they were at high altitude:

Sounds frightening what this guy is stating . What is causing these extreme symptoms?
[/QUOTE]
From what I've read it has something to do with the Corona Virus attacking the red blood cells which are responsible for doing the conversion of oxygen to carbon dioxide or something to that effect. Malaria also effects the red blood cells and may explain why the malaria drug hydrochloroquine is sometime effective. Next time I go out I plan to buy some Schweps Tonic Water - hopefully it stills has quinine in it and not just artificial flavorings..

 

[Fiscal]

On background, Argentina's testing abilities, from Buenos Aires Times...
The insinuation by OP was that Argentina is intentionally suppressing testing for Cov-19. The reality is otherwise, a chronically underfunded agency, called Instituto Malbrán. A sub-agency of Malbran, the INEI is the main testing centre for the detection of coronavirus in Argentina. Its fundamental activity is to follow the spread of respiratory virus worldwide to preview its arrival in Argentina. But this new pandemic, which exploded a few months ago in China, has not given time for any anticipatory vigilance.
...considering various factors such as the delays in transferring samples, given Argentina’s territorial extent and the transport difficulties, digital training is underway for the rapid diagnosis of coronavirus in laboratories in the City and Province of Buenos Aires, Córdoba, Chaco, Misiones, Santa Fe and Tierra del Fuego.
This project of decentralisation will be extended in a second stage to 35 laboratories in all 24 national jurisdictions. Working via the Internet has a precedent from 2009 when it was used to treat avian flu (626 deaths) and since then has continued functioning for cases of common virus.
The professionalism at the Malbrán continues to be the greatest (and perhaps only) protection Argentina has against the pandemic.

Underfunded staff at Malbrán Institute battle against coronavirus

The ANLIS-Malbrán Institute is on the front line against the Covid-19 pandemic but over the last decade the research institute has suffered heavy cuts.

www.batimes.com.ar

I wasn't insinuating that argentina was intentionally not testing. My point is that Argentina is not -- and cannot -- test in wide numbers so the number of COVID cases will be always be but a small percentage of the actual cases. And because Argentina has no capability to conduct widespread testing, there is no real way out of the quarantine like South Korea has done -- testing and tracking. So Argentina will just have to open the economy back up, or keep it frozen until the yanquis invent a cure.

 

[Fiscal]

I am a capitalistic as they come. But I find calls to open the economy and let the chinavirus spread unrestrained, to be puzzling.

My opinion is based on math. Bill Gates has made accurate predictions about chinavirus since day 1. He has predicted that if left unchecked, chinavirus could infect 50% of any population. There are a little over 40 million people in Argentina. Imagine Mr. Gates is wrong by a factor of 1, so only 25% of the Argentine population becomes infected if China virus were allowed to spread unrestrained. That's a little over 10 million people.

Now compare that 10 million people to ventilators in Argentina - last I read, there are 8.500 ventilators in Argentina. Big Al has asked China for 1.500 more, but who knows? Of those 8.500 ventilators, only 20% are available; 80% are in use for other ICU cases. So today, there are perhaps 1.700 ventilators available in Argentina (.2 x 8.500 = 1.700).

This is all guesswork and assumptions. But if over 10 million people in Argentina are infected with chinavirus over a 6-12 month period, and in the best case there are 2,000 ventilators at any given time, you can do the math. The percentage of infected patients that receive appropriate medical intervention would be de minimus. Literally millions of patients infected with chinavirus would have to go without medical intervention.

Say Argentina frees up every ventilator (ignoring the fact that other ICU patients would probably die without those ventilators), so there are 10.000 available - best case scenario. Say at the peak, there are a million Argentine chinavirus cases. This means only 1% of the positive cases would receive appropriate medical care.

People say the fatality rate of chinavirus is only 2%-4%. Fair enough - but that's with appropriate medical intervention. Given Ecuador's experience, the fatality rate without medical intervention seems a lot higher than 2%-4%.

Now here is the problem: a significant percentage of those affected with chinavirus survive due to medical intervention. I repeat: for those infected with chinavirus, medical intervention saves lives.Conclusion: if a country has more chinavirus cases than ventilators, then people who would live with medical intervention, will die. If our assumptions have any accuracy, then at the peak, 1% of Argentines infected with chinavirus would receive adequate medical care. 99% would not. That's an appalling ratio.

Elected leaders face a choice. Flatten the curve and minimize deaths, while crushing the economy. Or crush the economy and save literally thousands (or millions) of lives. There is also a short term/long term choice. The lives will be lost in the short term. If left unchecked, chinavirus will result in internet images of body bags and mass graves (like in Ecuador and NYC). That will happen today. Contrarily, the economic effects will be felt in the future. No one knows what is in store for Argentina's economy and the world economy. It is likely to be bad. But how bad? No one knows. But politicians will deal with that later. Death from chinavirus comes today. Economic recession comes tomorrow.

I don't like state intervention, destruction of capitalism or restriction of my movement. But for me, the math justifies the decision.

Ok that is fine, but if Argentina lifts the quarantine without a system in place to conduct widespread, ubiquitous testing, with sufficient doctors, nurses, hospital beds, PPE, ventilators, etc... the month long quarantine they imposed will be for nothing. Coronavirus won't just disappear because Albert closed the economy for an arbitrary amount of time. Until the US, Germany, South Korea or whoever invents cure, reliable treatments, antibodies tests, it isn't safe to re-open the economy.

 

[lunar]

Until the US, Germany, South Korea or whoever invents cure, reliable treatments, antibodies tests, it isn't safe to re-open the economy.

It is not safe to get out on the street, because you can be hit by a bus. But this does not keep everybody sitting at home all the time.

At least one serological test is already approved by the FDA, but it is not a silver bullet.

Coronavirus testing methods: What you need to know

Here’s a look at various testing methods available as the WHO stresses the need to aggressively test for COVID-19.

www.aljazeera.com

"It is not clear if they will be a game-changer at this time," Waleed Javaid, director of Infection Prevention and Control at Mount Sinai in New York, told Al Jazeera.

"Serology tests tell you about possible infection or exposure in the past, but not if you are currently infectious," he said.