Sense of dread grows in Argentina with difficult March ahead

19 February 2022
....A high-ranking International Monetary Fund (IMF) official Friday announced a full deal with Argentina “is very close,” as the Gov't of President Alberto Fernández hopes it will be next week, so that it can be put up for Congressional approval at the start of the new Legislature, March 1st. According to Casa Rosada sources, only the final details were still missing from the agreement. “We do not expect to close the deal this weekend, but in the middle of the next one,” the sources said. “It will surely be in the next fifteen days,” they added....
 
18 February 2022...Opinion and Analysis by James Neilson, former editor of the Buenos Aires Herald (1979-1986)
....Could they get away with it? Opinion polls suggest that a large majority of those who last year voted for candidates running for the ruling coalition think that on the whole it would be better to sign a deal with the IMF, so if Cristina and those who obey her every word manage to scupper one and the consequences are as bad as almost all economists are warning, they risk getting abandoned by most of the men and women who still have faith in them. Should that happen, they would have to choose between hoping against hope that the creaking judicial machinery they despise does not pick up speed and looking for a country which would be unlikely to extradite them.
 
21 February 2022 by Roman Lejtman
The Gov't and the IMF disagree on the reduction of energy subsidies and the signing of the agreement was postponed.
The Fund's technicians are not convinced by the lack of soundness of the fiscal path and demand more adjustments to public spending before signing the Staff Agreement with Argentina. The negotiators of the IMF showed their teeth in the last hours to demand a greater adjustment of the public expenditure destined to subsidize the electric energy tariffs. Alberto Fernández rejected the demand of the Fund's staff and the programmatic agreement to avoid a default in March was left at an impasse until this unexpected political conflict that surprised Balcarce 50 and the White House is resolved....
 
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giving up the subsidies is political suicide. but i really hope the IMF doesn't let them off the hook for that
 
21 February 2022 by Mariano Boettner
Negotiations with the IMF enter the final stretch: what are the main points that are blocking the agreement? The Gov't considers that the talks have now entered the definition zone. With the legislative treatment and the approval of the Board of Directors still pending, the country should pay US$2,826 million to the organization within a month....
 
Alberto's problem is that he hasn't got the huevos to go whole hog either way. He keeps trying to compromise, and winds up being despised by both sides.

Check this article by Mempo Giardinelli from today's Pagina12. He's just raging against the manner in which the current government has surrendered Argentina's sovereignty over the rivers and coasts without even a struggle. When even hardcore, oldschool Peronistas like Mempo are against the administration, their goose is cooked. And his points are legit.

 
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