Significant news about peso exchange rate

[surfing]

Can someone please explain to me why buying dollars at $5.10 is more attractive than buying at $4.47 if the restrictions on buying are the same?

 

[nikad]

Can someone please explain to me why buying dollars at $5.10 is more attractive than buying at $4.47 if the restrictions on buying are the same?

it is not clear to me either tbh, I think expatriado was dead on and this will end up in 3 different types of exchange rates.

 

[davonz]

I think this is to do with the people who cant get US$ through banks at the official rate because of the AFIP restrictions (they are the ones driving the blue/black market rate). So its the Casa De Cambio which has been filling in the gap and offering the higher exchange rate - buying at 6 pesos to the US$ under the table. So the gov wants to control this too, and is trying to get the casa de cambios to buy/sell around the AR$5 level. Fat chance though. Its all about supply and demand, and while the economy is going like it is, while inflation is going like it is, and while the government is acting like it is the demand for US$ is going to grow. At the end of the day instead of fixing the problems they are trying to control the results and it isnt going to work..

 

[surfing]

it is not clear to me either tbh, I think expatriado was dead on and this will end up in 3 different types of exchange rates.

In other words whenever we see a denial of a specific strategy we should consider it a promise of future decisions?

 

[surfing]

I think this is to do with the people who cant get US$ through banks at the official rate because of the AFIP restrictions (they are the ones driving the blue/black market rate). So its the Casa De Cambio which has been filling in the gap and offering the higher exchange rate - buying at 6 pesos to the US$ under the table. So the gov wants to control this too, and is trying to get the casa de cambios to buy/sell around the AR$5 level. Fat chance though. Its all about supply and demand, and while the economy is going like it is, while inflation is going like it is, and while the government is acting like it is the demand for US$ is going to grow. At the end of the day instead of fixing the problems they are trying to control the results and it isnt going to work..

Well -- I assumed he was referring to the official, legitimate casas de cambio who put buyers under the exact same afip scrutiny as the banks. If on the other hand he was referring (as you believe) to the illicit black market dealers that would mean the government officially approving the black market and that makes no sense either. We are really through the looking glass now.

 

[davonz]

Well -- I assumed he was referring to the official, legitimate casas de cambio who put buyers under the exact same afip scrutiny as the banks.

I could just about guarantee that he probably knows like everyone else does that there are back room deals going on in the casa de cambios. They wouldnt have any customers if there wasnt.

This says it all i think:
"Si quieren salvar su negocio, los invito a colaborar con la causa: hay que contener al dólar blue para que no se vuelva a disparar".
Con esa frase, el secretario de Comercio, Guillermo Moreno, se refirió a un grupo de dueños de casas de cambio, a quienes les advirtió que no debe superar los 5 pesos.

 

[el_expatriado]

It is all really confusing at the moment. If I get the chance to buy at 5.1$ I will be all over it.

Me too! And so will the rest of Argentina. That's why I am saying there is no way they can sustain a dollar at $5.10 unless the government is supplying the dollars for all of us to buy. And they have already shown they are not willing to do that.

I have dollars and I sure as hell am not going to sell at $5.10. I will sell at $6 or $5.90, but no way am I going to sell at $5.10.

The best they can hope to do is increase the spread in the blue market. Right now the blue market has a really small spread, which to tell you the truth surprises me. Given that it is a black market it seems to me that the operators in this market would want to earn more profit.

The spread was $0.02 on Friday $5.93 / $5.95. What might happen is that the buyer price goes to $5.10 and the seller price stays close to $5.90 and we have a huge spread in the market.

Otherwise I don't see how they can just "decree" that the blue dollar is worth $5.10. Because I will buy up every dollar they have to sell me at $5.10 and so will everyone else.

 

[sesamosinsal]

The news articles are confusing. Some of them give the impression that the casas de cambio will operate with 5,10 as "the rate", and then others say that will be the parallel rate. If they're trying to regulate the black market, that's awfully funny.

 

[surfing]

Clarin states it more clearly in quoting fernandez:
"el lunes" la divisa norteamericana, en las cuevas, "estaría abriendo a no más de 5,10 pesos".

And I am still utterly bewildered.

 

[sesamosinsal]

And I am still utterly bewildered.

I suppose the government believes that the casas de cambio are the primary vendors of black market dollars. Anyone with more info on the source of these dollars as a whole? Are casas de cambio really the primary culprits?