The Case For President Sergio Massa

[Reply Guy]

For those who fear a Milei or Bullrich Presidency, let's hear why Sergio Massa would be the best choice for Argentina.

I don't believe this to be the case, but I'll start to get the discussion going.

Let's keep this to as why Massa is the best, and not about Bullrich or Milei who are pretty well covered on this thread - https://baexpats.org/threads/what-would-dollarization-mean-for-expats.46122/

Potential advantages to a Massa presidency:

1. He doesn't have a fixed ideology and may be open to practical solutions.
2. He's been in politics forever. He knows all the power brokers and would be more effective dealing with the Argentine bureaucracy than a newcomer like Milei.
3. He values security and even hired Rudy Guilani to consult on making Tigre more secure as a mayor of Tigre.
4. He has a long relationship with the US and will be able to negotiate with them effectively. He was mentioned in Wikileaks several times as being a source of information for the US Embassy.
5. If there is an economic crisis he will have support of unions and social groups more than Milei and Bullrich, limiting the potential social fallout - protests, strikes.

 

[Ronnie Hotdogs]

6. Maintaining the status quo means expats with foreign income can continue to enjoy a high standard of living, whilst not suffering many of the negatives that the local population have to endure.

 

[sts7049]

massa is as milquetoast as alberto, so, if you value keeping things as they are in the country then he is your guy

 

[carride]

For those who fear a Milei or Bullrich Presidency, let's hear why Sergio Massa would be the best choice for Argentina.

I don't believe this to be the case, but I'll start to get the discussion going.

Let's keep this to as why Massa is the best, and not about Bullrich or Milei who are pretty well covered on this thread - https://baexpats.org/threads/what-would-dollarization-mean-for-expats.46122/

Potential advantages to a Massa presidency:

1. He doesn't have a fixed ideology and may be open to practical solutions.
2. He's been in politics forever. He knows all the power brokers and would be more effective dealing with the Argentine bureaucracy than a newcomer like Milei.
3. He values security and even hired Rudy Guilani to consult on making Tigre more secure as a mayor of Tigre.
4. He has a long relationship with the US and will be able to negotiate with them effectively. He was mentioned in Wikileaks several times as being a source of information for the US Embassy.
5. If there is an economic crisis he will have support of unions and social groups more than Milei and Bullrich, limiting the potential social fallout - protests, strikes.

Yes nice attributes as a politician here at this time. Still he apparently was not shaken enough by the results of the PASO elections to decide to make real economic adjustments to attempt to win. Instead he made a small peso devaluation to pretend he heard the voters. It was an illusion of tough medicine solutions that are not the status quo. Something he should have done before the election if he wanted to earn some votes. Really though, he knows he will lose and wants to keep his reputation for when his current political ideals cycle back into fashion.

 

[Monoexp]

Im argentinian. hahahah, Massa is the current government, and the actual government its the worst of all time. You cant fix Massa government voting for Massa Again, hahaha. Like it or not, Milei is the only NEW, Im gonna vote for Milei.

 

[Reply Guy]

Really though, he knows he will lose and wants to keep his reputation for when his current political ideals cycle back into fashion.

I think that's his play. He's clearly a savvy operator on knowing how to remain in positions of power. These measures he is announcing at the moment will put money in people's pockets today, but will add to the fiscal damage down the road.

Things will blow up under the watch of the next president, Massa can come back and criticize the measures taken as too extreme and say if he was elected how things would have been better.

 

[Reply Guy]

Im argentinian. hahahah, Massa is the current government, and the actual government its the worst of all time. You cant fix Massa government voting for Massa Again, hahaha. Like it or not, Milei is the only NEW, Im gonna vote for Milei.

Many expats on this forum are fanatically anti-Milei and Bullrich. I opened this thread to see why they think Massa is the answer, so far nothing.

 

[Quilombo]

Many expats on this forum are fanatically anti-Milei and Bullrich. I opened this thread to see why they think Massa is the answer, so far nothing.

I'm one of these people, but I would never vote for a Peronist, let alone a pancake like Massa. The enemy of my enemy isn't my friend, and politically I'm not a cyrpto-fascist (Milei), neoliberal (Bullrich), or Peronist (Massa) so that's why you won't see me arguing he is the answer, even though I dislike them, because if it's Milei vs Mass I'd be voting en blanco.

Also it's important to remember the overwhelming majority of this forum skews right wing, but not the flavor Milei is, and I assume they don't agree with his policies like myself, even though I'm politically on the far left, we just all sort of collectively agree he's bad.

The case for Massa is hard for two reasons: A) He's been Superminister for a year now, and things have only gotten worse, and B) What would he be doing differently than he's doing now? Cristina has already caved and let him do a bunch of shit she normally wouldn't be okay with, such as a devaluation during election season, so his presidency wouldn't be that different.

The pitch I suppose is the devil you know vs the one you don't, which isn't very convincing. I'm actually surprised Bullrich isn't doing better than she is, she has the easiest case imo, "I'm Macri 2.0", the Macri years weren't great, but they sure as shit were better than Alberto's admin for everything from minimum wage, inflation, pensions, etc. and Milei is still an unknown quantity in the sense that there will be a lot of pain before anything gets better (if you believe in his agenda) and he won't have Congress to even implement half the things he wants to, so why not role back the clock to 2015?

Anyways, what do I know. There's only 3 guarantees in Argentine life: death, taxes, and the depreciation of the peso, regardless of who wins.

 

[FrankPintor]

Many expats on this forum are fanatically anti-Milei and Bullrich. I opened this thread to see why they think Massa is the answer, so far nothing.

Is that the choice? Isn't it more Macri (because Milei will need his votes if he wins), Macri (because he's Bullrich's Cristina), and Massa?

To take Milei first, several of his policies are simply disqualifying. Free firearms carrying, organ trading, forbidding abortion. No. Then you've got education, research, and equality, all of which Argentina scores highly on, and he wants to remove state involvement. Just No. That's even before we get to the tantric sex and seances with his f*cking dead dog.

Bullrich has been in power. She could have done all of the things she says she wants to do. And what happened? A big drugs bust? Meh. Her rabble rousing during the pandemic was disgraceful, and even more her blaming an immigrant community for her catching COVID.

So that's the two Macri proxies. For most of his term Macri wasn't terrible, I think, A lazy SOB, certainly, Netflix on his sofa from 9pm, a sort of part-time president. I see there were major investments in public works in his term. In a different era he could have been a feel-good president, instead he managed to blow $45 billion on basically nothing. And Miami Mauri showed himself to be a coward once vaccines became available in his American Dream paradise, jetting off there shortly after saying he'd wait in solidarity with the rest of us here. If you don't hear more about his corruption, it's because he's able to move any cases against him and his family to the CABA jurisdiction, where he can get the very best justice money can buy. His cousin, Jorge Macri, should never have been allowed to stand as a candidate in CABA, you can bet that if he stood for another party he would have been disallowed.

So we come to Massa. A pancake (flip, flip, flip, for those who don't get the metaphor). He's the only guy who came forward last year when the economic shit was about to hit the fan. He stepped up, and ok, the results have been underwhelming. But think, he inherited a dire situation, made worse by a drought that affected exports, and remember, the wheels only came off a month back when it looked like Milei was a serious contender again. He applied sticking plaster over sticking plaster in the classic Argentinian fashion, but I give him credit for stepping up, he didn't have to. He's been a capable and apparently credible negotiator, And, as president, he'd have more independence to do what he thinks best.

This is the hand we've been dealt. Are you going to walk away from the table and vote "en blanco"?

 

[Reply Guy]

But think, he inherited a dire situation

That's a fair point that Massa isn't really to blame for the current economic situation. A fix would have entailed major reforms and pain, something that the current admin wasn't going to go for, so he did work within the guidelines that he had.

the wheels only came off a month back when it looked like Milei was a serious contender again

August / September are usually tough months because the big harvest is in October. I don't think the acceleration of inflation and loss of reserves has anything to do with Milei.

I give him credit for stepping up, he didn't have to.

I don't give him credit for stepping up, I don't believe for a second that he did it for the best of Argentina. I think he thought it was a path to run for president.

He's been a capable and apparently credible negotiator, And, as president, he'd have more independence to do what he thinks best.

He is much more capable than the former minister who lasted a month - Silvina Batakis. There is a big question mark if he ends up winning (looking unlikely) what his policies will be. As you say he's the famous panqueque. I could see him moving to the center.

I see a Massa presidency being that he devalues, enacts minor reforms, plays both China and the US for support...and Argentina muddles through the next few years - performance depending on commodity prices. A tough on crime campaign to gain support. Nothing really changes, cycle continues on.