The Case For President Sergio Massa

[Reply Guy]

Not without:
1. drastically reducing taxes, so businesses are willing to declare their income and the government collects more taxes
2. reducing the level of government spending to the level of tax collection

No the economy won't improve in the coming 4 years, whoever is elected.

If in one year another commodity supercycle starts with prices sky high, the economy will improve even if they don't do those things.

Argentina's economy is always at the mercy of commodity prices.

 

[mageesa]

If Massa wins money is returned to each of us.

Hey shouldn't that be if massa wins and Milei cries fraud, the other guy keeps your cash? That's only fair if you're going to "both sides" the issue...

 

[wrangler]

If someone is willing to be an escrow, I'll bet you $1,000USD that if Milei wins, Massa's camp will yell fraud.

If Massa wins money is returned to each of us.

The problem with this is that there is the potential for ambiguity. Some in Massa's camp may say there was fraud, and others may not, including Massa, in the rare case he should lose, so I have to decline.

 

[mageesa]

1. drastically reducing taxes, so businesses are willing to declare their income and the government collects more taxes

I think the taxes would have to be in the negative zone before people moved their accounts out of the black, otherwise what's the incentive? I would think reducing taxes gradually while beefing up enforcement might coax the unruly herd back into the pen... And really, it's hard to imagine balancing any budget when nearly everyone with cash is offshore -banking and doing business under the table.

This wouldn't be popular with expats (or anyone else) but it seems a more predictable transition than just switching to dollars and continuing on the same way.

(It's fun to theorize, but if these things were simple economists would all be billionaires. Humans can be so unpredictable!)

 

[Reply Guy]

Hey shouldn't that be if massa wins and Milei cries fraud, the other guy keeps your cash? That's only fair if you're going to "both sides" the issue...

No, that's not where we differ. Wrangler and I both agree that Milei's camp will cry fraud.

The disagreement is if Massa's camp will cry fraud if Milei wins.

Wrangler is right though, there might be too much ambiguity. If Maximo and Kicillof cry fraud and Massa is silent does that count as his camp.

We have a friendly bet then without money.

 

[Alby]

As I understand it, the electoral body is far less independent of government here than in other countries, so it's hard to see how the incumbent government could claim fraud if it loses. In 2015 (of course, long before crying fraud became the norm), the government lost a narrow election. It didn't commit fraud to win it or claim fraud when it lost.

 

[wrangler]

If someone is willing to be an escrow, I'll bet you $1,000USD that if Milei wins, Massa's camp will yell fraud.

If Massa wins money is returned to each of us.

Should have taken you up on this.

 

[sergio]

Time to change the name of this thread!

 

[retiredbanker]

The case is CLOSED