The Case For President Sergio Massa

He's such an arrogant asshole, the man acts like he's some sort of financial genius, yet all he did was ripoff Amazon and eBay's concepts, while getting a ton of funding from the later. Revolutionary, akin to calling whoever founded Mostaza a genius as if it wasn't "McDonald's, but Argentine".

This is one of the (many) reasons why I have never voted K; they campaigned on the IMF loan being illegal/immoral, especially the Campora, and look what they did the second they took power: decoupled the pension adjustments from inflation, agreed to pay the loan under new terms, lowered the minimum wage to levels not seen since the 80s, and most lately, have agreed to all sorts of measures one can legitimately call a Massazo, all with Cristina and Maximo's blessing.

The country should have played hardball during COVID - write down the debt to say 30¢ on the dollar or you get nothing, but no, instead there are endless amounts of dollars for the IMF, for Aerolineas Argentinas, for the MEP/CCL market, etc. and nothing for cancer meds, for capital goods for productive industries, for investments in the Argentine people broadly, etc. We got the worst of both worlds: we continue paying the debt and the economy is a shitshow anyways.

But I digress; Massa bragged saying he's always texting with folks in NYC and DC earlier this year when people suggested that Bullrich's team was trying to undermine him using backchannels, and I don't doubt it for a bit: he's a spineless weasel that would sell his son's soul for a second in Rivadavia's Chair, and if people think he won't sell out the future of Argentines for the same they're sadly mistaken. I fully believe Milei would be a disaster of a president, but Massa has already been president for the past year, and it has been nothing short of ruinous.

Whoever is victorious will be ruinous for Argentina; if these are the two best people we could come up with for the moment, we may truly deserve the fate that collectively awaits us. However, it remains a shame that, as always, those who will pay the most for our incompetence as a country are those least capable of doing so.
My view of the K is a bit more positive than yours, but this is still very well said. I don't vote here, but if I did, I swear I'd vote FiT, just as an extended middle finger to the whole casta politica.
My view of the K is a bit more positive than yours, but this is still very well said. I don't vote here, but if I did, I swear I'd vote FiT, just as an extended middle finger to the whole casta politica.
I voted FIT-U; I'm not a Trotskyite, and I know that they have a snowball's chance in hell of wielding any real power, but they at least they actually care about people, and fight for their beliefs and have spines.
I could not disagree more with your premise that it would not matter who is in charge. It could make a huge difference if someone with vision were able to make the judiciary incorruptible, and to make the politicians accountable. Today, politicians here and their cronies operate with complete impunity.

One of the things I like to share with friends in the US is that La Nacion publishes both the official exchange rate and the blue rate. They are really amused by this. Then I tell them about how the retail banking system is broken here and that a shadow banking system has replaced it, and that is also the mechanism through which one transfers dollars, which is a totally corrupt system but has the support of the crooks who run this country.
I wish I could share in your idealism, but I'm too jaded and cynical at this point with the idea that solutions will come from politicians - any politicians. I think the political class are two sides of the same bankrupt coin (or some other object with as many sides as there are parties who swap control each other) who intentionally divide the public and point their fingers at each other as the cause of all the problems and themselves as the solution to those problems. While the public is all caught up in their own finger pointing and arguing with each other about who's responsible and who's got the answers that will repair the damage the responsible caused, the politicians are enriching themselves to the best of their abilities.

Sadly, I just don't see anyone with vision who would be able to make the judiciary incorruptible and the politicians accountable. Anybody I think might even be close, shares in that ideal, or at least has a heart, never seems win and/or polls in the low single digits. Or the corrupt system does what they have to to make it so that it's nearly impossible for them to succeed (as an example I'm thinking what the Dem party in the US did to Bernie Sanders in the 2016 primary in order to insure that Clinton would be the nominee because it was 'her time,' 'she paid her dues,' and 'she deserved it' as well as them being afraid of what Sanders was proposing because it would alienate their wealthy private and corporate donors). I'd love to be proven wrong, or more accurately to be shown an example of such a visionary able to make politicians accountable and the judiciary incorruptible that could give me hope. I can't think of anyone in history who's done so, and I would imagine that anyone who seriously set out to do so was put down in one way or another because there's no way the corrupt would just lay down without putting up a fight - they have too much to lose. Corruption buys a lot of influence and power, be it judicial, political, military/police/militia/street gangs. Instead of blaming specific political ideologies I tend to think corruption is just an ugly part of the human condition. Wiping out an ugly human trait like corruption is like wiping out greed - impossible given how we've arranged our societies. Political systems are set up in such a way that it takes massive amounts of money in order to even run for office, and that itself invites corruption. Politicians having to raise so much money might even be one of the definitions of corruption since people/companies/interests who buy politicians expect a return on their investment.

But again, I would love to be less jaded and cynical about all this, but for me to get there I need names, examples where someone with the vision you describe actually made a difference that benefitted the country (not limited to ARG) and it's people and made the politicians and judiciary accountable and incorruptible. Or someone currently not yet in power who could fill that role, or even someone talking about it with a concrete plan on how to make it happen.
Milei has to be the favorite at this point doesn't he?

The first round numbers (rounded) were:

9.6 million7.9 million6.3 million1.8 million0.7 million

If we assume:
  1. Schiaretti voters go 33/33/33 (33% for each candidate and 33% stay home or vote en blanco);
  2. 75% of Bregman voters vote for Massa and 25% stay home.
  3. Turnout remains the same.
Milei only needs one in every three Bullrich voters to come over (as opposed to voting for Massa or staying home/voting en blanco) and he's over the line.

Are there any soft voters of the former JXC left to join Massa? Surely most of them went in the first round.

Over the weekend I asked several Bullrich voters what they planned to do and all bar one said they would hold their nose and vote for Milei. The one would exception said she would vote en blanco, which won't help Massa.

(I suppose Milei could lose some first-round voters after his joining the casta. And maybe Massa can drag even more voters back into the fold in the conourbano.)
Over the weekend I asked several Bullrich voters what they planned to do and all bar one said they would hold their nose and vote for Milei. The one would exception said she would vote en blanco, which won't help Massa.
My Bullrich-supporting friends are mostly doing the same. I still think Massa will win, but itś going to be a tight race; and certainly we will be hearing allegations of fraude if Massa wins.
The allegations of fraud are already rampant among Milei's supporters. Surely, if Milei does not win (he won't), there will be accusations of fraud without any evidence surfacing. The Milei supporters I have seen are a bunch of raging lunatics. They want to take control of the helm by any means possible. I have been saying from the beginning that they will be disappointed.