The Case For President Sergio Massa

[Stantucker]

Milei has to be the favorite at this point doesn't he?

The first round numbers (rounded) were:

Massa	Milei	Bullrich	Schiaretti	Bregman
9.6 million	7.9 million	6.3 million	1.8 million	0.7 million

If we assume:

1. Schiaretti voters go 33/33/33 (33% for each candidate and 33% stay home or vote en blanco);
2. 75% of Bregman voters vote for Massa and 25% stay home.
3. Turnout remains the same.

Milei only needs one in every three Bullrich voters to come over (as opposed to voting for Massa or staying home/voting en blanco) and he's over the line.

Are there any soft voters of the former JXC left to join Massa? Surely most of them went in the first round.

Over the weekend I asked several Bullrich voters what they planned to do and all bar one said they would hold their nose and vote for Milei. The one would exception said she would vote en blanco, which won't help Massa.

(I suppose Milei could lose some first-round voters after his joining the casta. And maybe Massa can drag even more voters back into the fold in the conourbano.)

Recent polls are giving Milei a slight advantage, even though the difference is within the margin of error. I know that many pollsters have been notoriously wrong in the last few years, but there were three or so that predicted a win for Massa in Oct. The first to do so, I think, was a Brazilian pollster who is now giving a slight advantage to Milei as are most of the others, except one pollsters that often works for the current govt.

Today I read that another pollster with ties to the govt is giving Milei a slight advantage now, but when they polled right after the Oct elections, they had Massa 10 points ahead. At that time only 30 some percent of Bullrich voters had decided to vote for Milei whereas that number now stands at 60 percent. They attribute much of that change to Macri and Bullrich's support of Massa.

It'll be interesting to see how or if recent spying allegations against the Ks will hurt Massa. I can't help but think the gas shortage, Massa wishy washy response when asked about the juicio político against the supreme court, Schiaretti, Lavagna and Llayora's attack on Massa for not coming out against that juicio político have all hurt Massa, not to mention inflation that has not improved much and is predicted to only get worse, and Massa's desperation to gain votes as seen in his giving away and promising one thing after another.

Having said all that, it still seems like either could win, even though Milei seems to have the momentum right now. I guess it might come down to those undecided voters who very well may not decide until they are in the voting booth because they see neither as a good choice. I will add, though, that I think because of recent missteps by Massa and the containing bad economy (even though the dollar has calmed), many people are losing their fear of voting for Milei

 

[sts7049]

these days any loser cries fraud. it's the default response

 

[PatriotsFan]

Milei has to be the favorite at this point doesn't he?

The first round numbers (rounded) were:

Massa	Milei	Bullrich	Schiaretti	Bregman
9.6 million	7.9 million	6.3 million	1.8 million	0.7 million

If we assume:

1. Schiaretti voters go 33/33/33 (33% for each candidate and 33% stay home or vote en blanco);
2. 75% of Bregman voters vote for Massa and 25% stay home.
3. Turnout remains the same.

Milei only needs one in every three Bullrich voters to come over (as opposed to voting for Massa or staying home/voting en blanco) and he's over the line.

Are there any soft voters of the former JXC left to join Massa? Surely most of them went in the first round.

Over the weekend I asked several Bullrich voters what they planned to do and all bar one said they would hold their nose and vote for Milei. The one would exception said she would vote en blanco, which won't help Massa.

For those that appreciate another viewpoint of Political Races.
The gambling community has the odds of:
Massa -140 it costs $140 to win $100
Milei Even it costs $100 to win $100
These odds moved from Massa at 4-1 down to this.

(I suppose Milei could lose some first-round voters after his joining the casta. And maybe Massa can drag even more voters back into the fold in the conourbano.)

 

[Reply Guy]

these days any loser cries fraud. it's the default response

Yep, guarantee whoever loses will cry fraud in this election.

 

[wrangler]

Yep, guarantee whoever loses will cry fraud in this election.

Only mILEI'S camp will

 

[FrankPintor]

Only mILEI'S camp will

Surely only someone who expects to lose would claim fraud in advance of the vote, particularly when the vote is widely seen as free and fair (e.g. Freedom House rating 4/4). If you google "Argentina election fraud", all of the recent results include the words "Milei", "unfounded", and "lack of evidence". Do we have a (bad) loser?

 

[mageesa]

Yeah my main reason for Massa would be that he doesn't seem like a loose cannon rolling around. Just a normal corrupt politician.There was an interesting podcast interviewing Milei neighbors in Abasto about the dogs, etc. ..

‘Podcast’ | Sin control. El universo de Javier Milei

Una coproducción de cuatro episodios entre Anfibia Podcast y EL PAÍS Audio sobre la figura del controvertido candidato a la presidencia de Argentina

elpais.com

I mean, I get that a drastic solution seems appealing in a moment of crisis, but 2 years from now, if things are going sideways with Milei in charge, people will say "of course". Because he isn't quite well; and I think we all know that on some level. He seems capable of anything, not in a good way.

I think the president has little power to make things better, but he can make things worse. I predict the economy will improve like it always does, and whoever is in office will take credit.

 

[toongeorges]

I predict the economy will improve like it always does, and whoever is in office will take credit.

Not without:
1. drastically reducing taxes, so businesses are willing to declare their income and the government collects more taxes
2. reducing the level of government spending to the level of tax collection

No the economy won't improve in the coming 4 years, whoever is elected.

 

[FrankPintor]

I think the president has little power to make things better, but he can make things worse. I predict the economy will improve like it always does, and whoever is in office will take credit.

Yes, there should be big increases in exports, agro-exports should grow 40% compared to this year (the end of the 3 year La Niña drought, which wiped $19bn off the map this year, not counting planting losses) as well as possibly become a a net exporter of hydrocarbons ($5-10bn). That's a big chunk of the $90bn the central government spends in a year.

So there will be more money, plus I understand lower repayments to the IMF. As you say, whoever is in office will take credit and get to spend it. Assuming Massa wins, and even if he does nothing much, he would seem to be "condenado al éxito" as the infamous Argentinian phrase has it He can certainly look at a unified exchange rate, if not convertibility, by the end of 2024.

 

[Reply Guy]

Only mILEI'S camp will

If someone is willing to be an escrow, I'll bet you $1,000USD that if Milei wins, Massa's camp will yell fraud.

If Massa wins money is returned to each of us.