- May 15, 2017
Recent polls are giving Milei a slight advantage, even though the difference is within the margin of error. I know that many pollsters have been notoriously wrong in the last few years, but there were three or so that predicted a win for Massa in Oct. The first to do so, I think, was a Brazilian pollster who is now giving a slight advantage to Milei as are most of the others, except one pollsters that often works for the current govt.Milei has to be the favorite at this point doesn't he?
The first round numbers (rounded) were:
Massa Milei Bullrich Schiaretti Bregman 9.6 million 7.9 million 6.3 million 1.8 million 0.7 million
If we assume:
Milei only needs one in every three Bullrich voters to come over (as opposed to voting for Massa or staying home/voting en blanco) and he's over the line.
- Schiaretti voters go 33/33/33 (33% for each candidate and 33% stay home or vote en blanco);
- 75% of Bregman voters vote for Massa and 25% stay home.
- Turnout remains the same.
Are there any soft voters of the former JXC left to join Massa? Surely most of them went in the first round.
Over the weekend I asked several Bullrich voters what they planned to do and all bar one said they would hold their nose and vote for Milei. The one would exception said she would vote en blanco, which won't help Massa.
(I suppose Milei could lose some first-round voters after his joining the casta. And maybe Massa can drag even more voters back into the fold in the conourbano.)
Today I read that another pollster with ties to the govt is giving Milei a slight advantage now, but when they polled right after the Oct elections, they had Massa 10 points ahead. At that time only 30 some percent of Bullrich voters had decided to vote for Milei whereas that number now stands at 60 percent. They attribute much of that change to Macri and Bullrich's support of Massa.
It'll be interesting to see how or if recent spying allegations against the Ks will hurt Massa. I can't help but think the gas shortage, Massa wishy washy response when asked about the juicio político against the supreme court, Schiaretti, Lavagna and Llayora's attack on Massa for not coming out against that juicio político have all hurt Massa, not to mention inflation that has not improved much and is predicted to only get worse, and Massa's desperation to gain votes as seen in his giving away and promising one thing after another.
Having said all that, it still seems like either could win, even though Milei seems to have the momentum right now. I guess it might come down to those undecided voters who very well may not decide until they are in the voting booth because they see neither as a good choice. I will add, though, that I think because of recent missteps by Massa and the containing bad economy (even though the dollar has calmed), many people are losing their fear of voting for Milei