The economic future from Argentina

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#21
Buenos Aires is a very contradictory city and everyone who lives here for a while would know this .
We have poverty here and villas miserias ringing the city but on the other side we have a very big middle class as well as a very rich upper class who in cash and assets are as rich as any European Aristocracy . In the last 3 years it has been calculated that the elite of Argentina have become many times richer through the tremendous revaluation of their traditional land holdings. In Dollar terms their properties are more valuable than ever before fetching record prices.
Will this boom stop in the coming years I beleive not there are too many indicators that show that it will continue at a strong pace
 
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Paul_NL

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#23
Tuesday, March 20, 2007
Direct Link: http://www.mercopress.com/vernoticia.do?id=10106&formato=html

Argentina’s grain crop forecasted to reach 120 million tons
Argentina could increase its annual grain production to 120 million tons by 2010 from about 90 million tons currently according to a top executive of one of the country’s leading soy producers.

Argentina, the world’s number three producer and exporter of soybeans, could reach that level of output due to a 50% increase in the size of its corn harvests and a 10% gain in soy production, Gustavo Grobocopatel, director general of the Los Grobo group, was quoted during the Reuters Latin American Investment Summit in Buenos Aires.

“Argentina, which is producing 90 million tons of grains this year, is soon going to produce 120 million tons: if prices stay at current levels, in three years; if prices fall, or taxes or fertilizer costs go up, it’s going to take five or six years” he said.

The Argentine government estimates the 2006-07 soybean harvest at between 42.5 and 44.5 million tons, with entire production of grains and oilseeds coming in at a record 94 million tons.

Grobocopatel’s firm, one of the best known faces of Argentina’s soy boom, farms just over 100,000 hectares in the country, which is also a leading supplier of wheat, beef and corn.

He also estimated that global soy prices would rise because the United States is expected to sow less of the oilseed.

“High corn prices mean the United States will plant more corn and less soy. The market’s going to push up the soy price in three to five months, meaning Mercosur can increase soy production and supply the world,” he said.

Mercosur includes other leading soy-producing countries such as Brazil, the number two exporter behind the US and Paraguay the world’s fourth-biggest soy supplier.

Industry analysts expect US farmers to dedicate less land to soybeans to take advantage of the high prices for corn, riding high on increasing ethanol production.

Grobocopatel, who recently signed a deal to help Venezuela step up soy production, said the same trend toward corn would also be felt in Argentina.

“Next year, the area could go up 50%. The problem is that there’s not enough seed,” he said, estimating that production could rise to 30 million tons, up from the government’s 2006/07 estimate of between 21 million and 22 million tons.

Argentina’s soy production has roughly doubled in the last decade, and Grobocopatel said there was still room for expansion in marginal parts of the key farming provinces of Buenos Aires and Entre Rios.

He said such growth should be accompanied by greater investment in road building.
“The priorities are roads, at least 8.000 kilometres of roads” he insisted appealing to the government — which has repeatedly clashed with farmers — to reinvest some of the sector’s tax contributions toward improving infrastructure.

That might also include improving waterways so more soybeans could be imported from neighbouring Brazil and Paraguay to take advantage of Argentina’s ample soy-processing and storage capacity.

Interesting read.
 
#24
"tourism will soon decline and the contruction is a boom and will soon bust." I don't see tourism declining pericles, I think it's going to grow. The construction boom will slow, it has to, it already is slowing. Inflation is the concern for rank and file Argentines right now.
 
#25
Mad max that comment was made by Paul_NL and I do not beleive in those comments
Tourism will grow extremely fast in the coming years and property prices will rise for 5 more years at rates above 20 percent per annum.
 
#27
Tourism will grow extremely fast in the coming years and property prices will rise for 5 more years at rates above 20 percent per annum.Pericles, you are not only a philosopher...you are a fortune teller!
 
#28
"pericles" said:
Tourism will grow extremely fast in the coming years and property prices will rise for 5 more years at rates above 20 percent per annum.
Why? What's the underlying logic behind these assertions? If inflation in Argentina continues apace, then Argentina will lose favor with tourists -- as it did during the late 90s. Additionally, in order to attract tourists, investment in travel and accommodation infrastructure is crucial. I don't see it in anything other than pricey boutique hotels. And there have to be attractions -- cultural and otherwise -- that keep tourists coming. Again, I don't see a great profusion of such attractions.
Property prices are already beyond the reach of many Argentines. One could make the argument that foreigners have largely been fueling this speculative bubble (with 1/3 of the sales in the more salubrious areas of BsAs being to foreigners, this claim is plausible); these bubbles eventually burst.
The Argentine economy is not on any substantially sounder footing than in times past. The peso is at a low level so exports are competitive and world prices for agricultural produce are high -- for these reasons the Argentine economy is doing "well" (in the sense that Argentina's rich are making hay). But this has happened frequently in the past as well: nothing new here. Nor does the gang in power have any clue about what's happening in the global economy nor how to position Argentina to weather the global economic storms that are brewing. Again nothing new.
 
#29
Most of Argentinina tourists come from South America and our closest neighbour Brazil has more people than all of Europe combined.
Yes Buenos Aires will have very high rates of inflation and will become unfortunately expensive but at the same rate people in this region will become more wealthier and as most Argentines have rediscovered their own country in the last 5 years internal travel is more popular than ever.
If anyone has tried to book a hotel in Mar De Plata and the coast this summer will have seen the demand far exceeds the supply now.
 
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Paul_NL

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#30
"bigbadwolf" said:
Tourism will grow extremely fast in the coming years and property prices will rise for 5 more years at rates above 20 percent per annum.
Why? What's the underlying logic behind these assertions? If inflation in Argentina continues apace, then Argentina will lose favor with tourists -- as it did during the late 90s. Additionally, in order to attract tourists, investment in travel and accommodation infrastructure is crucial. I don't see it in anything other than pricey boutique hotels. And there have to be attractions -- cultural and otherwise -- that keep tourists coming. Again, I don't see a great profusion of such attractions.
Property prices are already beyond the reach of many Argentines. One could make the argument that foreigners have largely been fueling this speculative bubble (with 1/3 of the sales in the more salubrious areas of BsAs being to foreigners, this claim is plausible); these bubbles eventually burst.
The Argentine economy is not on any substantially sounder footing than in times past. The peso is at a low level so exports are competitive and world prices for agricultural produce are high -- for these reasons the Argentine economy is doing "well" (in the sense that Argentina's rich are making hay). But this has happened frequently in the past as well: nothing new here. Nor does the gang in power have any clue about what's happening in the global economy nor how to position Argentina to weather the global economic storms that are brewing. Again nothing new.
What's you source of the 33% of sales to foreigners in some areas?
 
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