Congress just anounced the name change of INDEC to INDEK to honour the greatest president ever.
ENGLISH VERSION
More con than CoL
HERALD STAFF
VERSIÓN ESPAÑOL
Costo de vida y de la mentira
El editorial del lunes pasado titulado “¿A quién creen que engañan?” concluyó con las palabras: “Hasta ahora no se ha cometido ningún delito estadístico — al momento de escribir este editorial la manipulación de las cifras de la canasta básica sigue siendo una sospecha, no un hecho. Todavía no es demasiado tarde para pedir al gobierno que vuelva a reflexionar sobre este disparate: gran parte del éxito de un no muy carismático presidente depende de la oleada de buenas noticias económicas durante los últimos cuatro años, y si el gobierno ahora insiste en falsificar las malas noticias, ¿quién se creerá las buenas en el futuro?” Este consejo no fue escuchado y ese delito estadístico fue por tanto cometido el miércoles: lejos del aumento del 3,6 por ciento de los precios de alimentos básicos, como se anunció en un principio, se nos pide que creamos que esos precios efectivamente cayeron un 0,2 por ciento el mes pasado, bajando así el umbral de la indigencia de 444 a 427 pesos por mes para una familia tipo. Lea más
Last Monday’s editorial entitled “Who are you trying to kid?” concluded with the following lines: “So far no statistical crime has been committed — at the time of writing, fiddling the family shopping-basket figures remains a suspicion, not a fact. It is still not too late to appeal to the government to think twice of this folly — much of the success of a not very charismatic president depends on the stream of economic good news over the past four years and if the government now insists on falsifying the bad news, who will believe the good in future?”
This advice was not heeded and that statistical crime was duly committed on Wednesday — far from basic food prices rising 3.6 percent in March as originally announced, we are asked to believe that those prices actually fell by 0.2 percent last month, thus lowering the threshold for slipping into destitution from 444 to 427 pesos per month for a four-member household. No explanation of the error accompanies the revised figure. It is true that the 3.6 percent figure was never consistent with the overall 1.1 percent average posted for the “food and beverages” item but neither is a deflation of -0.2 percent. Nor would there appear to be any mathematical consistency in maintaining the 0.8 percent inflation originally announced for March while such a basic component as family shopping-basket prices is undergoing such drastic change — not for the first time the Néstor Kirchner administration seeks to have it both ways by not going back on the general inflation figure for the outside world while denying the price increases which hit the poorest hardest. The INDEC statistics bureau’s loss of credibility is now surely total.
The trouble with replacing serious inflation figures with notional ones is that anything goes once all orientation is removed. The government might now be perfectly free to publish the inflation data which Kirchner would like to see but neither is there any ceiling on the fears of the public at large without any objective data to act as a reference for expectations. It is especially foolish to play these games at the height of the collective wage bargaining season — without such blatant manipulation of the data the government could reasonably seek to impose a wage increase guideline of 15 percent but now that inflation is in the eye of the beholder, the trade unions are more likely to gun for 25 percent. As Sir Walter Scott once wrote, “Oh what a tangled web we weave, When first we practise to deceive.”