The Next Currency Crisis-Any predictions?

[dr__dawggy]

It's not. Argentina isn't built on credit. The peso isn't pegged to the dollar. Apples & Oranges.

You can complain about inflation. But inflation doesn't mean that people are going to default on their homes... that have already been paid for in full. Or on the lease for their apartments... that are locked in at peso prices.

The past was very different than the present. What "crisis" are preople anticipating? More whining? There's already plenty of that. I listen to English students who work in banks whine about prices and then talk about the Armani suit they just bought and/or the restaurant they just went to that runs AR$200/person in the next breath.

It's not like most of the population has two mortgages in dollars and yet they get paid in pesos. That's just not the case. And if food prices continue to climb, then maybe that will help stem the obesity and heart disease in this country.

Comparing past circumstances that had very different variables to today doesn't make any sense.

Shit will hit the fan if China's population declines and they stop being the factory to the world. There are absolutely ZERO projections of that being the case before say 2075 A.D. Or maybe it's before 2175 A.D. I can't remember.

First, I have not and would not predict a crisis as dire as the one in 2001/2002. I have not read any posts that foretell another 2002 doomsday.

Second, periods of recession following a period of economic boom have taken place in Argentina during the administrations of Peron, the Military regime, and virtually every administration since that time. It is naive to assume Cristina has solved the problems that have contributed to past crises (see the excellent post with point by point steps leading up to various crises)....In Addition to these points, government corruption and inefficiency still exist in Argentina along with government intervention/price controls that lead to problems...eg, price controls on beef that have contributed to a shift away from cattle production toward an over reliance on soy. And there is still a lack of confidence in the banking system. Hence, people with money send their cash abroad or invest in bricks and mortar in Argentina.

So, whether it is a mild recession or worse, I still predict a correction/crisis on the horizon....

 

[ghost]

I cannot for the life of me see any crisis soon . The cost of food , grains, and other commodities are predicted to rise incredibly the next years bringing billions to Argentinas coffers.
You have seen the reason, you simply did not recognize it.
Billions coming into Argentina's coffers means nothing unless those billions are reinvested in infrastructure and human capital. If those billions follow the current pattern of deployment and diversion then general prosperity is is off the table and crisis will be in play, once again. It's not a question of potential revenue, it's a question of use and deployment.