The pandemic: The view after 5 months

[ben]

Not sure about the veracity of the studies re children not transmitting the virus. I haven’t done a deep dive myself, but I understand this is the subject of lots of debate.

Again, I do want to stress that this was a modified form of normal.

Parents were not allowed on the premises for any reason. Children were dropped off at the gate, where temperature was taken and parents had to orally respond to a quick questionnaire about travel, exposure, symptoms in the family, etc. Every day. Another school insisted on this questionnaire filled out - first online, then in a written note.

Our youngest children came down with a cold, and a day later one of the camp-attending siblings started showing the same symptoms. She could not attend until the siblings’ test returned negative, and 24 hours had passed from cessation of her own symptoms.

Specific classes or grades were periodically shut down when a sibling of one of the kids in that class tested positive. Class remained suspended until the sibling attending the class tested negative. This happened several times in both places our children attended. Never did a child actually attending school test positive, so I can’t report on what happens in such a case.

The larger point is that reopening schools or anything is completely unworkable barring a detailed protocol for dealing with it.

Israel had thought early on that they’d beaten the crisis - after an Argentina-level shutdown - and reopened schools. It did not end well.

Israel’s advice for other countries?

“They definitely should not do what we have done,” said Eli Waxman, a professor at the Weizmann Institute of Science and chairman of the team advising Israel’s National Security Council on the pandemic. “It was a major failure.”

 

[Pensador]

Exactly my point. There has been 0 effort or directive to actually implement a strategy that is not BAN ALL TODDLERS/KIDS/TEENS FROM SCHOOL/DAYCARE. Majority of studies have shown no increase in transmission rate by having schools operating (the younger they are the less likely to transmit the virus as well).

This is very bad information. We are finding out the exact opposite here in Uruguay and in the USA as elsewhere in the world. Are you listening Alex Jones or crackpots on YouTube for this totally false data?

 

[Somewhereinba]

This is very bad information. We are finding out the exact opposite here in Uruguay and in the USA as elsewhere in the world. Are you listening Alex Jones or crackpots on YouTube for this totally false data?

You should not be so quick to throw labels around when you read something you don't agree with. Have a read and digest everything the article below says. The anecdotes of USA and Uruguay (161 total cases lol) you mentioned require studies before I take them seriously. Uruguay has hardly any cases so I'm not sure what data you are referring to either using them as an example. The article below has a lot of data and some studies although none are scientifically perfect they are better than nothing.

Science | AAAS

www.sciencemag.org

 

[Pensador]

You said the"Majority of studies have shown no increase in transmission rate by having schools operating (the younger they are the less likely to transmit the virus as well)."

I have 3 sons grown up now. When they were in school I was sick numerous times a year as they constantly were getting bugs in school, colds, flues, stomach viruses, etc. Kids transmit bugs, not their fault they just do. School openings suggest ways according to your article that does not fit what I quoted you as posting.

 

[another]

I am 70 years old and in very good health. I have been walking almost daily, a normal routine prior to the pandemic, for 2-3 hrs in many of the neighborhoods in CABA. I have continued the same routine since the start of the pandemic. From the beginning I have maintained ample social distance, used a medical mask and surgical gloves to protect myself from others/protect them from me. The only restriction I have imposed on myself is no physical interactions with friends and family. But I do communicate with them via Skype. I see many seniors taking the same precautions who are out and about walking as well. Either on their own or accompanied by a friend/relative and/or attendant. Even some in wheelchairs. So not every senior has chosen to be "locked up" in spite of the DNU's and recommendations.

Gracielle, you forget that thousands live in geriatric facilities in Argentina and those have no choice. And there are hundreds of thousands if not millions in the first world countries living in nursing home and assisted living facilities and retirement residents - and those have been on a lock down for at least 4-5 months and they still got hit hard. They do not have a say either - unless the family chooses to check them out and take them home. I do believe that it was the right thing to do for a time being, but it did take the personal choice away from all these people, and I personally would have preferred to have the choice of living a few months or even years less, but being able to see my children. Personal examples do not make statistics, and the this discussion is about the policies that affect the entire population, so unless a massive survey of those residents is conducted we won't know what their preferences are.

 

[London2Baires]

Not sure about the veracity of the studies re children not transmitting the virus. I haven’t done a deep dive myself, but I understand this is the subject of lots of debate.

Again, I do want to stress that this was a modified form of normal.

Parents were not allowed on the premises for any reason. Children were dropped off at the gate, where temperature was taken and parents had to orally respond to a quick questionnaire about travel, exposure, symptoms in the family, etc. Every day. Another school insisted on this questionnaire filled out - first online, then in a written note.

Our youngest children came down with a cold, and a day later one of the camp-attending siblings started showing the same symptoms. She could not attend until the siblings’ test returned negative, and 24 hours had passed from cessation of her own symptoms.

Specific classes or grades were periodically shut down when a sibling of one of the kids in that class tested positive. Class remained suspended until the sibling attending the class tested negative. This happened several times in both places our children attended. Never did a child actually attending school test positive, so I can’t report on what happens in such a case.

The larger point is that reopening schools or anything is completely unworkable barring a detailed protocol for dealing with it.

Israel had thought early on that they’d beaten the crisis - after an Argentina-level shutdown - and reopened schools. It did not end well.

According to this Bloomberg piece published over a week ago;

"two new studies, though from different parts of the world, have arrived at the same conclusion: that young children not only transmit SARS-CoV-2 efficiently, but may be major drivers of the pandemic as well"

"children 5 years and younger who develop mild to moderate Covid-19 symptoms have 10 to 100 times as much SARS-CoV-2 in the nasopharynx as older children and adults. "

New Evidence Suggests Young Children Spread Covid-19 More Efficiently Than Adults

Two new studies from different parts of the world arrived at the same conclusion: that young children not only transmit SARS-CoV-2 efficiently, but may be major drivers of the pandemic as well.

www.forbes.com

The writing has been on the wall for some time now.

 

[another]

https://www.infobae.com/america/the...pagando-otra-pandemia-y-no-es-el-coronavirus/

This is an interesting take on the unintended consequences of devoting so much effort and resources to fighting COVID which so far this year has killed 700,000 worldwide.

Over 80% of treatment programs for tuberculosis have been interrupted. TB is the world's deadliest infectious disease which already kills about 1,5 million people every year. The interruption and barriers to treatment as a result of the fight against COVID are increasing the transmission of the disease and risking more drug resistant strains taking hold. For centuries TB used to account for 20-25% of all deaths in Europe until the use of antibiotics and other treatments in the early 20th century, while now days deaths are overwhelmingly focused in the poorest corners of the world.
Other diseases such as HIV and Malaria are also in the spotlight.

"According to one calculation, a three-month closure in different parts of the world and a gradual return to normal over ten months could result in an increase of 6.3 million cases of tuberculosis and 1.4 million of deaths from this disease.

"A six-month interruption of antiretroviral therapy could lead to more than 500,000 additional deaths from HIV-related illness, according to the WHO. Another WHO model predicted that, in the worst case, deaths from malaria could double to 770,000 per year ."

It is also interesting to look at the effect of COVID on societies in developing countries in Africa or places like Afghanistan where a third of the population are estimated to have been infected, but the reported death rates don't appear to be extraordinary (e.g. 1,200 in Afghanistan) perhaps due to the pre-existing prevalence of other equally or more deadly infectious diseases masking the true impact... raising the questions of perspective and perhaps even first-world shock at having to deal with a rampant infectious disease in first-world communities again, where rich lives are worth infinitely more than poor lives.

They forgot about the rest of the world where all the cancer and dialysis treatments have been paused for months, as well as all the surgeries cancelled, and there are real stats on how many people will die prematurely as a result of this. So at the end of the day the death toll of the virus will be nothing compared with the rate of other unnecessary deaths that those policies are incurring...There is also a very good interview with a British scientist that why the death toll in this age category in UK is high - he has decades worth of stats on mortality rates in this age groups due to influenza etc.

It also in total alignment with what most European epidemiologists and mathematicians say.

 

[Somewhereinba]

I have 3 sons grown up now. When they were in school I was sick numerous times a year as they constantly were getting bugs in school, colds, flues, stomach viruses, etc. Kids transmit bugs, not their fault they just do. School openings suggest ways according to your article that does not fit what I quoted you as posting.

This is not the flu and you cannot treat it like other viruses. The flu is actually more dangerous/deadly for children compared to the coronavirus. The article directly states that young children are a lot less likely to transmit the virus compared to adults hence the reason they show minimal systems and it hardly affects this. This is a fact.

 

[gracielle]

Gracielle, you forget that thousands live in geriatric facilities in Argentina and those have no choice.
Another, I am referring to seniors who do not live in geriatric facilities.
If I intended to include that population of seniors I would have stated so.
And there are hundreds of thousands if not millions in the first world countries living in nursing home and assisted living facilities and retirement residents - and those have been on a lock down for at least 4-5 months and they still got hit hard. They do not have a say either - unless the family chooses to check them out and take them home.
My commentary is strictly regarding seniors residing in CABA who are ambulatory, walking in the company of another or not.
I do believe that it was the right thing to do for a time being, but it did take the personal choice away from all these people, and I personally would have preferred to have the choice of living a few months or even years less, but being able to see my children.
Are you referring to national measures taken by the ARG gov't? Or those taken by the individual provincial authorities?
Personal examples do not make statistics....my commentary is anecdotal and strictly based on what I see on the streets in CABA.
It's too soon to begin talking about statistics extrapolated after 140 days of the strict, moderate, etc. phases of the quarantine in CABA.
and the this discussion is about the policies that affect the entire population, so unless a massive survey of those residents is conducted we won't know what their preferences are.
Good luck with that happening in CABA or in ARG as a whole. One of the reasons being that those stats might expose failures on the part of the decision makers.

 

[Pensador]

This is not the flu and you cannot treat it like other viruses. The flu is actually more dangerous/deadly for children compared to the coronavirus. The article directly states that young children are a lot less likely to transmit the virus compared to adults hence the reason they show minimal systems and it hardly affects this. This is a fact.

Adults may not be the only Covid 'long haulers.' Some kids still have symptoms, months after falling ill | CNN

Parents whose children have been battling symptoms as diverse as fatigue, breathlessness, chest pains, diarrhea and "covid toes" for weeks after suspected Covid-19 infection say there is little help to guide their kids' recovery.

edition.cnn.com

‘It was chaos!’ Students get suspended for posting pictures of packed halls — now the high school is closing after 9 people were infected

Last week, pictures of maskless students crowding the hall of Georgia’s freshly reopened North Paulding High School went viral and raised questions all over...

www.marketwatch.com

Israel's schools reopened and Covid-19 cases started rising | CNN

During the first few months of the pandemic, Israel was praised for its response to the coronavirus but after the country reopened its schools, it has seen a surge in outbreaks. CNN's Elliott Gotkine reports.

edition.cnn.com

The debate is over as far as I am concerned.