The Vultures Fly Again And Again

There are many arguments that were used to keep the UK, Sweden, and (help me out) out of the Eurozone despite being in the European Union. They new it was not good news.

Regarding Argentina, I've read a few things and I don't think that as bad as it is, the debt to GDP ratio is much lower than Portugal et. al.
 
Argentina ... with similar problems as Spain and Italy. Where did most Argentinean families originally come from?

I truly hope you don't have any money on a German bank. The account holders on German banks might think their money is there, by looking at their statements, but they are wrong. Their money was lent to the PIIGS. All they have is a promise of payment from countries that are less and less likely to pay it back as each day passes by.
Most German banks are heavily exposed tot he PIIGS, and their balance sheets are not rotten yet simply by the fact that the ECB has been making the "minimum monthly payments" on behalf of the debtor nations. Once that stops, the truth that the majority of the German banks are insolvent will come to light, and then things will get really ugly.
There is a great American cartoon called Roadrunner, where a coyote is always trying to catch the roadrunner bird (and always failing). One of the most common scenes on the cartoon is the coyote to go over a cliff while chasing the bird. As long as the coyote does not realize that he has gone over the cliff, he is fine, kinda of floating in mid air. However, the moment that he sees that he is just floating in mid air, he briefly waves to the the audience before plunging to a painful fall down the abyss.
This is how I see Europe today: They have run over the edge of a cliff a while ago, but have not realized it yet, so everything looks fine. The ECB is working really hard to try to prevent Europe from noticing that they are all over the cliff. But sooner or later, like the coyote, they will notice that they are just floating in mid air. I reckon that at that point, we will see Europe as a whole just wave to the rest of the world, and then plunge down the abyss.
 
Interesting article in the Irish times today, perception is worse than reality for German exposure to Irish losses. UK and non EU investors have a much greater exposure than German banks who didn't offer as much cheap credit as others. Germany is bearing the brunt of abuse in Ireland but the reality is that they didn't accept as much credit risk as other countries at least in Ireland. Not sure how this plays out in the southern PIGS !
 
ps..in your analogy Europe seems to disappear over the cliff in isolation, which obviously wouldn't be the case. Major consumers of US and Chinese output, wouldn't fall alone and for that reason somehow the show will go on.
 
From what I read, German banks have a half a trillion euros exposure to the PIIGs, the bulk of it being in Italy and Spain.

And that is DIRECT exposure.

Indirect exposure could be many times that.
 
I truly hope you don't have any money on a German bank. The account holders on German banks might think their money is there, by looking at their statements, but they are wrong. Their money was lent to the PIIGS.
Don't worry I have my money in dollars outside Germany.
 
Argentina ... with similar problems as Spain and Italy. Where did most Argentinean families originally come from?

Just remember that it takes two to tango. The German banks have as much fault on this as the borrowers. They made those loans counting (correctly, so far) that the European state would cover the payments in the case of the borrower being unable to pay. Everyone was involved neck deep on this scam to defraud tax payers.
 
There are many arguments that were used to keep the UK, Sweden, and (help me out) out of the Eurozone despite being in the European Union. They new it was not good news.

Regarding Argentina, I've read a few things and I don't think that as bad as it is, the debt to GDP ratio is much lower than Portugal et. al.
We know by now, that giving up the old currency for the Euro was the price Germany had to pay for the unification:
http://www.presseurop.eu/en/content/article/351531-you-get-unification-we-get-euro
 
Regarding Argentina, I've read a few things and I don't think that as bad as it is, the debt to GDP ratio is much lower than Portugal et. al.

Because they defaulted. That is why it is not "as bad" as the PIIGS. And now the Argentinian government, unable to borrow money, mask their overspending with Inflation. If Cristina had access to the international market, you can bet she would be on a credit binge right now.
 
From what I read, German banks have a half a trillion euros exposure to the PIIGs, the bulk of it being in Italy and Spain.

And that is DIRECT exposure.

Indirect exposure could be many times that.

Not so much in Ireland, so that PIIG can be better classified as a PIG. Non EU (I imagine middle east and US?) and UK exposure is much greater. I imagine the US have a large degree of exposure, it would not be unfathomable for example that after GSachs cooked the books to allow Greece into the club a few of their contemporaries poured credit in at a furious rate.
 
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