Updated COVID restrictions on circulation

[FrankPintor]

Could you quote something on that? I would indeed be very surprised if they did not send their kids to school. In fact, the vast majority of the parents want to have their kids in school.

What is - however - well documented is that Kiciloff (that's the governor of the province who is lobbying hard to have closed as much as possible) sent his kid to school in CABA. So much about cynism.

As a fellow European, I find your expectation that ministers and governors should behave as normal people absolutely laudable, though in a Latin American context perhaps naïve. Normal people don't take private jets to holiday in Brazil in the middle of a pandemic, nor do they send their kids to Cancun (and bring them back on a fake PCR certificate) like Samba Horacio Larreta and Cancun Diego Santili. I don't know why you would be surprised that they don't send their kids to school.

Here's a counter-question or three: if they do send their kids to school, don't you think there would be photo-ops about this? It wouldn't be splashed all over Clarin and La Nacion? I mean, what better way to show they have skin in the game by showing they're like "the vast majority of the parents [who] want to have their kids in school"?

Anyway, I'm looking for quotable references. About Kiciloff, maybe his kids would have their grades gratuitously marked down if they didn't attend school?

 

[antipodean]

The plateau in the province is from about 16.04, while in CABA it's from approx. 23.04 (not so much a plateau as a peak, I admit). So a week earlier in the province, more or less.

I submit that the deaths are a bit more important. And yes, I know there are factors to muddy the waters, patients from the province might be treated or dying in hospitals in CABA and so on, But still, the difference in the evolution in the COVID deaths in CABA and the province is startling, wouldn't you agree?

Deaths are a consequence of past infection - infections are what matters when discussing whether or not leaving schools opens helps or hinders. Implying deaths are otherwise linked to it somehow implies that people that get infected by kids get a more lethal dose than those infected by adults?!

Deaths also need to consider non-residents from Provincia who come to private hospitals in CABA and hospital populations. Because of that I don’t see anything “startling” in the comparison.

As for the downward trend, like we have seen over and over in this dick swinging contest between CABA and Provincia it changes week by week. By next week Provincia may be having riots or massive parties in Nordelta and cases will skyrocket while CABA will go back to normalish making the gap invert - who knows.
What matters is that they both show they same trend despite having different measures in place - what perhaps matters more is ICU occupation rates also falling. ICU occupation is the reason measures were taken by both sides in the first place - let’s not loose sight of that or the fact that 65.000 have already died in Argentina irrespective of these measures (the vast majority of whom were infected when schools were closed.)

 

[FrankPintor]

Deaths are a consequence of past infection - infections are what matters when discussing whether or not leaving schools opens helps or hinders. Implying deaths are otherwise linked to it somehow implies that people that get infected by kids get a more lethal dose than those infected by adults?!

Not sure where you got this from. Maybe you should consider that deaths are from people not being able to get hospital beds because, well, the beds are full already, like in CABA? This has been demonstrated around the world, it's not going to be different here.

Deaths also need to consider non-residents from Provincia who come to private hospitals in CABA and hospital populations. Because of that I don’t see anything “startling” in the comparison.

As I mentioned, it's possible, but no statistics, no data.

What matters is that they both show they same trend despite having different measures in place - what perhaps matters more is ICU occupation rates also falling. ICU occupation is the reason measures were taken by both sides in the first place - let’s not loose sight of that or the fact that 65.000 have already died in Argentina irrespective of these measures (the vast majority of whom were infected when schools were closed.)

Nope, they show different trends, that was clear from my graphics. And yes, given that the pandemic started in March 2020 with little knowledge of how to treat COVID, it's not unreasonable that most of the deaths occurred in 2020 when schools were closed. Treatment has improved since early 2020, with dexamethasone rather than ventilators, really, that comment was a bit silly.

 

[antipodean]

Not sure where you got this from. Maybe you should consider that deaths are from people not being able to get hospital beds because, well, the beds are full already, like in CABA? This has been demonstrated around the world, it's not going to be different here.

There is no scandal in the fact that the number of deaths between provincia and CABA exist at the moment.

Public ICU occupation in CABA is 83,8% whereas for non-critical beds only 8% are occupied. I wouldn't call this people dying en-masse for not being able to "get a bed", despite the fact that the bed of choice may not be available in Hospital Alemán. Nor are there scenes of people dying in rickshaws in-front of a hospital waiting to be attended.

Given it takes time to end up in ICU and more time to die from COVID, the timing of deaths will also have something to do with the quality of care received which may differ between hospitals and indicate their capacity to keep people alive for longer rather than pulling the plug earlier.
However above all, the number of deaths you have is much more to do with the amount of critically ill patients (which also implies age/ risk profile of patients) in your care. COVID is more a numbers game than a death sentence. That leads to the next point in explaining the differences you see.

As I mentioned, it's possible, but no statistics, no data.

See below. Of course there is data if you want to look for it. You can also count private hospital beds in AMBA and see how many of these are located within CABA.
CABA reports cases based on residents and non-residents. As you can see already, there are a LOT of non-residents who are tested and treated in the system here rather than in their own province.
It’s still one metro area after-all, with the majority of leading hospitals in the city proper meaning that people aren’t going to stop going to their hospital of choice or proximity or availability based on an invisible provincial border. More complicated cases, older and wealthier people often end up in the city for treatment. To try and minimise that is rather futile. To try and link that to school closures is even more far-fetched.

Nope, they show different trends, that was clear from my graphics. And yes, given that the pandemic started in March 2020 with little knowledge of how to treat COVID, it's not unreasonable that most of the deaths occurred in 2020 when schools were closed. Treatment has improved since early 2020, with dexamethasone rather than ventilators, really, that comment was a bit silly.

Last time I checked people have been dying all along in 2021 in provincia as they have been in CABA despite new treatments and school closures.
If COVID continues over enough time as is, another 33,000 will die in Provincia alone.

Today we see a sharp increase in cases in both CABA and provincia (and various other provinces) following an increase in testing which is still severely below where it needs to be - 11.4m tests and 3.05m detected cases to date. Yet the fact remains that there are no proven links between the trends we are seeing and school opening or closures despite the superstitions or suspicions of some. Don't like it? Present your evidence to the supreme court as I am sure the government have already done.

 

[antipodean]

El Gobierno suspenderá el feriado puente del 24 de mayo

Se pasará para agosto. El Ejecutivo justificó la decisión para “desincentivar la circulación” en el marco de la segunda ola de coronavirus

www.infobae.com

The government announced that 24MAY will not be a public holiday - it will be a normal day of work-
This is to avoid hordes of people travelling away for the weekend as they did at easter.

 

[sts7049]

totally ridiculous move

 

[antipodean]

From this weekend CABA is expected to introduce major restrictions applicable on the weekends. Only essential shops will be open (pharmacies, supermarkets) and all restaurants will only be permitted to do delivery / takeaway. Only essential workers will be allowed to circulate on the streets - everyone else must stay home. Pretty much it will be the same as this time last year in terms of life during the weekends.

During the weekdays most things stay the same however it is expected that shops will only be allowed to serve clients from the door (e.g. clothing shops etc.)

This comes as cases all over Argentina including CABA are again breaking records and the primary source of infection continues to be family and social gatherings - especially as it gets chilly and people take it inside. The objective is to reduce the amount of social gatherings taking place on the weekends.

La Ciudad de Buenos Aires aplicará cierres estrictos los fines de semana pero las clases seguirán presenciales en jardines de infantes y en primaria

Son las medidas que pondrán en marcha, tras el vencimiento del actual DNU. En secundaria se pasaría a virtualidad. Habrá limitaciones para la circulación los sábados y domingos y sólo podrán abrir los comercios esenciales. Gastronomía, sólo con take away y delivery

www.infobae.com

 

[¡Sencillamente yo!]

This problem (COVID) does not seem to be going away anytime soon.

The best one can do is put it out of your mind and immerse yourself in something that you need to do, or enjoy to do.

Before you know it - 2 to 3 years will have passed (from today) and life just might be livable in a normal sense again.

This (the recovery) is going to be a long, slow process at best.

 

[antipodean]

This problem (COVID) does not seem to be going away anytime soon.

The best one can do is put it out of your mind and immerse yourself in something that you need to do, or enjoy to do.

Before you know it - 2 to 3 years will have passed (from today) and life just might be livable in a normal sense again.

This (the recovery) is going to be a long, slow process at best.

Correct, it’s not going anywhere soon. Some of us have businesses to run or jobs to do or families to raise in the midst of it all, so for the non-retirees, keeping up to date with the situation is of upmost importance because it impacts the day to day.

But I agree on a personal level there’s not much one can do to change the situation around them other than choose a place to be that works for them and keep themselves and their communities as safe as they need to be while getting on with it.

 

[FrankPintor]

This seems to be a reasonable summing up of the current pandemic situation here in Argentina: https://www.theguardian.com/global-...tina-covid-coronavirus-cases-deaths-hospitals

Some highlights:

• “With these latest numbers we can expect a total catastrophe within 10 days, [...] Thirty-five thousand new cases on Tuesday means 1,500 patients entering intensive care in 10 days".
• “The marker of this collapse is the abrupt increase in mortality: some regions are reporting a mortality rate of 75% in intensive care” .
• "Despite the horrifying figures, few Argentinians seem aware of the gravity of the pandemic", "the situation has been compounded by the politicization of the pandemic",
• "Argentina’s centre-right political opposition coalition Together For Change has fought tooth-and-nail against the restrictions".

In this context, the reported "restrictions" CABA intends to introduce can only be seen as an attempt to sabotage the more restrictive measures expected to be announced by the president on Friday. Weekend lockdowns in CABA (because we all know the virus only comes out Monday to Friday), schools to remain open, and in any case zero control of sanitary measures in cafes, restaurants, or anywhere else, all in the name of "freedom".

About schools, this is the recent experience of a family I know: youngest kid came back from school with the sniffles. Older kid comes down with more severe symptoms, then one parent, then the other (a teacher at a different school). The teacher tested positive, the other parent wasn't tested, but was also registered as a positive case. Neither of the kids was tested, nor registered as a positive case. So, out of 4 school-associated cases, 2 were registered, one with the wrong school, and the kids are considered not to have been infected. For anyone with skin in the game, parent, teacher, or family, you can see how CABA constructs its bogus school Covid statistics.

The Guardian article also has this: "Relative to population, Argentina now has the highest number of Covid deaths per day in the world, with 16.46 Covid fatalities per million on Tuesday, far exceeding its giant neighbour Brazil, which saw 11.82 per million", it's being reported in Infobae and elsewhere as well. This map is quite interesting:



(it's from http://www.healthdata.org/special-a...covid-19-and-scalars-reported-covid-19-deaths)

Countries with developed health systems are at most underestimating Covid deaths by 25%. As well as Australia, NZ, and parts of Europe, this category apparently also includes Chile, Argentina, and Uruguay (Chile was famously forced to correct its data last year, costing the then health minister his post, the province of Buenos Aires also had a big correction). Parts of Brazil are underestimating Covid deaths by a factor of 10. So, bad as things are, the statement that Argentina now has the highest number of Covid deaths per day in the world needs to be read with some scepticism.