The recommendation is the following from me:
- Send only what you need, when you need it
- Finance anything you can with interest free cuotas
- For large purchases, wait for spikes/adjustments like yesterday's
- Expect the unexpected: past performance is not indicative of future results
As part of the accords with the IMF/general lack of funds the government basically has let the CCL float, which WU/MG uses as an index.
If you remember last year, the blue was for a long time higher than the CCL because of interventions to maintain an artificially low value.
This has since come to an end, and the CCL now serves as a indicator of confidence, and as a relief valve for people or companies needing
to access dollars legally (unlike the blue) without restrictions.
Why do I mention this? When the government makes decisions that spook the market, such as extending financing terms for dollar payments, or there being general macroeconomic ineptitude (such as the 28th largest oil producer in the world, Argentina, having diesel shortages, or inching towards 80% inflation) this causes jumps in the CCL, and in turn, the WU exchange rate. This is how you can factor when to send larger amounts of money.
The best way to know when you should send money following a jump is to follow it, and wait for the WU rate to be updated to reflect it. For example, the CCL was up Tuesday and Wednesday to 250:1, but WU didn't update the rate from $223 until yesterday when it hit $253. Take a look at the CCL rate, then the WU rate. As long as the WU rate is better, or at least not more than a couple of pesos less than the CCL, you're fine to send money. If there's a wide gap like earlier this week, wait.
Will the jump continue? IMO, no, I think the market has finally adjusted the out of control inflation and poor macro economic management/restrictions that was causing the CCL to be artificially low for a while, even as inflation kept going up. If you index the last time the dollar was traded freely in Argentina, August 2019, to inflation, the official exchange rate would be 193 pesos per dollar, which was where the blue was in May. The blue being at 238 now, and CCL 255 is reflective of a decrease in confidence, increased cepo on accessing dollars (even if the government calls it something else), and inflation projections by the BCRA's independent survey of economics of ~75% to 80% for YTD, and pricing this all in from a floor of an inflation adjusted blue of 193.
Long story short: I sent my money for some purchases I was waiting to make, judge for yourself considering the information we have at our disposal.
