What is the situation now?

Redpossum

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Antipodean, (not going to take up half a page quoting all that), while lambasting Argentina's government, did you notice that the USA is just below Argentina? And that Mexico is somewhat better than the USA? If Argentina is "at the bottom of the heap", as you so charmingly put it, then so is the USA. How much can you criticize the government of any 3rd world bananero for doing a little worse than the United States of America?

This epidemic is a challenge. All governments are struggling. But any stick will do to beat an ugly dog.
 

antipodean

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Antipodean, (not going to take up half a page quoting all that), while lambasting Argentina's government, did you notice that the USA is just below Argentina? And that Mexico is somewhat better than the USA? If Argentina is "at the bottom of the heap", as you so charmingly put it, then so is the USA. How much can you criticize the government of any 3rd world bananero for doing a little worse than the United States of America?

This epidemic is a challenge. All governments are struggling. But any stick will do to beat an ugly dog.
IMO the US is in there at the bottom of the heap too, what gives you the impression I am a fan of the USA or say it’s doing “better” than Argentina?
There are 198 countries in the world, and Argentina doesn’t have hundreds of millions of inhabitants to even attempt justify its position based on size or mere coincidence either. It shares its place and high death toll with many countries that have simply managed it terribly, US included.
 
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Dougie

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Argentina is in reality applying vaccine dosis practically immediately as they arrive, the issue is supply. Unfortunately being a bigger country like Argentina does not help you in getting more vaccines, as the world has a limited supply and everyone's money is worth the same. So small neighbour countries like Uruguay are already almost completely vaccinated but Argentina has a long way to go.
Not sure if this is case. If you look at Chile you have over 60% vaccinated, then Paraguay a small population country and it's still 2% or something like that. I don't really know the reason, I'd assume it's a combination of political alliances, government competency, existing healthcare infrastructure, etc.

Aside from that, the problem with the country's quarantine was that the government didn't do enough to help the poorest, so they went out and violated it anyway because they had to keep working to put food on their tables. With enough of a stimulus cheque that wouldn't have happened. However the other side of politics wouldn't have done any better on this.
That's the main issue. Whoever was in power was going to be screwed. A quarantine only works if it's strict. The half measures that aren't enforced just kill the economy and do nothing to slow the spread. Look at Peru, for example. It would have been great if the government was able to send out stimulus checks to lower income people to help ease their economic pain, but the government was already in dire financial straits before the pandemic. The don't have the wealth of the US, Canada, Australia, etc to send out checks.
 

ventanilla

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I’m not a fan of Macri and also under no doubts it would have been different. However I would struggle to say it would be “worse” with any confidence at all. Today Argentina is comparable to Bolsonaro’s Brazil or the damage that was done in Trump’s USA or AMLO’s Mexico.

Argentina is still at the bottom of the heap when it comes to Bloomberg’s ratings that assess various indicators and near the top when it comes to Hopkins deaths per 100.000.
Whichever way you measure it, this Argentine government that calls the shots and has the responsibility of finding effective ways to govern has failed miserably. Like anywhere in the world the vaccines of today won’t undo harm already inflicted, nor will pure conjecture minimize that.

What does anyone seriously expect from Populism (and also, Argentine/ Latin American society) regardless of its economic or idealogical orientation?

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Bloomberg's 'ranking' is obviously absurd. It's a business lobby website, they're invested in making Argentina look bad because it has a government they don't like. The idea that Argentina is the worst in the world in pandemic response is patently absurd. Brazil quite literally did NOTHING about it and has a president who has encouraged people to ignore the regional authorities trying to fix his mess since the very beginning, but they like his economics so they can't bare to put him last. Peru? Worst death toll in the world by far, but again they like the president. A huge joke.

By the way, that 'deaths per million' ranking is incorrect. It excludes many countries. Argentina is actually 15th, about even with the UK and US. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

Argentina is also 15th in the world on vaccines applied despite being 31st in population. AND despite being a 3rd world country with poor access to the vaccine market, beating out many EU countries. There's more to the response than simple deaths.

"What does anyone seriously expect from Populism (and also, Argentine/ Latin American society) regardless of its economic or idealogical orientation?"

The neoliberals violated quarantine about 20 times to hold mass rallies against it, half of them holding signs saying 'EL VIRUS NO EXISTE'. Spare us the idea that it's all the fault of the government.
 
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ventanilla

Registered
Not sure if this is case. If you look at Chile you have over 60% vaccinated, then Paraguay a small population country and it's still 2% or something like that. I don't really know the reason, I'd assume it's a combination of political alliances, government competency, existing healthcare infrastructure, etc.



That's the main issue. Whoever was in power was going to be screwed. A quarantine only works if it's strict. The half measures that aren't enforced just kill the economy and do nothing to slow the spread. Look at Peru, for example. It would have been great if the government was able to send out stimulus checks to lower income people to help ease their economic pain, but the government was already in dire financial straits before the pandemic. The don't have the wealth of the US, Canada, Australia, etc to send out checks.
To face a pandemic it's definitely worth printing however much money is necessary, since a successful quarantine would make it worthwhile, not just in lives saved but also because you can avoid the economic downturn caused by the virus if it works. but no one really knew this back then, every government was reacting ASAP and hoping what they did happened to work
 

FrankPintor

Registered
Bloomberg's 'ranking' is obviously absurd. It's a business lobby website, they're invested in making Argentina look bad because it has a government they don't like. The idea that Argentina is the worst in the world in pandemic response is patently absurd. Brazil quite literally did NOTHING about it and has a president who has encouraged people to ignore the regional authorities trying to fix his mess since the very beginning, but they like his economics so they can't bare to put him last. Peru? Worst death toll in the world by far, but again they like the president. A huge joke.

By the way, that 'deaths per million' ranking is incorrect. It excludes many countries. Argentina is actually 15th, about even with the UK and US. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

Argentina is also 15th in the world on vaccines applied despite being 31st in population. AND despite being a 3rd world country with poor access to the vaccine market, beating out many EU countries. There's more to the response than simple deaths.
Absolutely correct. Even if Bloomberg is ranking countries' reported official numbers, this map with the ratios of total COVID-19 deaths to reported COVID-19 deaths shows why they can't be trusted:

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From http://www.healthdata.org/special-analysis/estimation-excess-mortality-due-covid-19-and-scalars-reported-covid-19-deaths. (I've posted it before). The southern cone countries, with almost first world health systems, are now reporting mortality data that is expected to be close to the real figures, the ratio is 1 - 1.25, like parts of Europe, Australia and NZ.

Peru and Bolivia produce no reliable data. And look at Ecuador, it under-reported by a factor of 2.5 - 3. And the US - under-reporting by over 200% in some states, Brazil is even worse in parts. It's not believable that Argentina has worse mortality rates than any of those countries.

The gold standard for this kind of divination is the FT COVID monitor, https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938, it doesn't include Argentina yet, but it's clear that the Bloomberg rankings do not tell the real story.
 

Redpossum

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Mark Twain said long ago, "There are three types of untruths in this world - lies, damn lies, and statistics."
 

antipodean

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The neoliberals violated quarantine about 20 times to hold mass rallies against it, half of them holding signs saying 'EL VIRUS NO EXISTE'. Spare us the idea that it's all the fault of the government.
In that I case I would ask to spare us the idea that it's all somehow the fault of the JxC opposition.
(Who last time I checked do not have a parliamentary majority. Nor are responsible for issuing DNUs. Nor responsible for the often misleading and divisive statements that pass through the lips of the president. Nor are responsible for making and implementing public health or economic policies. Nor are responsible for procuring and distributing vaccines. Nor are the silly and divisive words of their so called "leaders" sooo revered by their voters that they are avoiding being vaccinated or following protocols any more or less than voters of the incumbent government who also staged plenty of mass and clandestine events in their own right throughout this ordeal. FWIW all militant Macri-Patty voters 45+ I know personally have been vaccinated either here or in the USA and many make up the 40% of CABA residents already vaccinated... hardly something "brainwashed non believers" would do voluntarily?)

Argentina is bad (like a lot of other countries.) That it is a fact with varying degrees of interpretation. If it could have been better or worse is conjuncture. Regardless, people remain free to imagine what they like if it makes them feel better about being here or part of their "team" in the super-liga that is Argentine politics.

For me, the real debate splinters off when one wants to ask if it is worth being "this bad" with or without the economic and social price tags that come with certain government policies to boot (e.g. Mexico, Brazil, USA models.) Unlike those countries, Argentina actually invested a lot of perseverance and resources into trying to do things that were ultimately ineffective so as not to end up like those countries. But it ended up like them anyway in terms of lives lost - which is the only thing that really matters at the end. That raises valid questions about (in)competence and what strategy is believed to be best moving forward in the social context and reality of an Argentina full of Argentines.
 

Dougie

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To face a pandemic it's definitely worth printing however much money is necessary, since a successful quarantine would make it worthwhile, not just in lives saved but also because you can avoid the economic downturn caused by the virus if it works. but no one really knew this back then, every government was reacting ASAP and hoping what they did happened to work
Somewhat agree that a successful quarantine would make it worthwhile.

There is a huge difference between the US, Japan, European Union, etc printing vs Argentina printing. When your debt is denominated in your own currency you can print like mad without too much damage, but when Argentina or a similar country has debt dominated in foreign currency, they make their debt that much more expensive by printing.

That was the dilemma that Martín Guzmán was faced with. Again, I'm not a huge fan of the administration, but they didn't really have many options.
 

Renzi

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Much epidemiological research before COVID seems to have had a general consensus that quarantines are most effective as a temporary stopgap measure and when targetted at the most vulnerable population. Unfortunately with COVID, lockdowns became more of a political policy than a health measure, and people were either for or against (like with any other political issue). And the WHO (which clearly has been trying to cover its ass throughout) never really made it clear if their priority was to reduce the infection rates or reduce the mortality rate. You don't need to go to med school to know that treatment and prevention are too different things.

In a country like Argentina where it seems like everything is political already and with its history of political violence, things could have actually played out much, much worse. Nowadays, far-right elites in Latin America (with a few exceptions) just fly to their second homes in Miami whenever things get too hot for them, rather than plot military coups.
 
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