What will the Dollar be worth End 2020.!

I was just joking around. Even if Kanye was elected in 2020, I don't think the peso would gain 30% on the dollar.

Why do you see Colombian and Brazilian equities rising in local currency in the next few years? Yield chasing due to low interest rates in the developing world?

Well if you think the Colombian peso will rise against the dollar, earnings for Colombian ADRs will be juiced. Maybe I took the comment seriously because I've been buying Colombian ADR's of late.
 
Well if you think the Colombian peso will rise against the dollar, earnings for Colombian ADRs will be juiced.

Why do you think the Colombian peso will rise against the dollar? Doesn't it rely pretty heavily on oil? Not disagreeing with you, just curious as to your outlook.
 
You can twist it as you like: the fact remains that Argentina is economically performing much worse than almost all other countries on the continent over the last decades.

Depends on what you mean by "performing worse." Argentina has consistently had the second largest economy on the continent, third in Latin America, and ranks second highest in the latest Human Development Index Ranking. It also In other words, even while performing poorly, it's still doing considerably better than most of its neighbors.

No twisting invlolved, it's in the World Bank and UN data. But that's not going to stop people from shouting that Argentina is the next Somalia.
 
Depends on what you mean by "performing worse." Argentina has consistently had the second largest economy on the continent, third in Latin America, and ranks second highest in the latest Human Development Index Ranking.

In living memory, Argentina used to be the LARGEST economy in the Continent and in Latin America, by a wide margin. In living memory, Argentina used to have the highest human development index ranking in Latin America, by a wide margin.
In living memory, all top 10 universities in Latin America where in Argentina. Today, not a single Argentine university makes it to the top 10 list in Latin America.
In 1947, there were 4 countries in the world capable of designing and building jet powered aircraft: The United States, The Soviet Union, The United Kingdom and....Argentina.
The Argentine jet aircraft were being designed and build in a city called Cordoba. The same Cordoba that today you think I am unfairly comparing with Bogota.
But yeah, keep telling yourself that all is well and consistent in Argentina.
 
Depends on what you mean by "performing worse." Argentina has consistently had the second largest economy on the continent, third in Latin America, and ranks second highest in the latest Human Development Index Ranking. It also In other words, even while performing poorly, it's still doing considerably better than most of its neighbors.

No twisting invlolved, it's in the World Bank and UN data. But that's not going to stop people from shouting that Argentina is the next Somalia.
Not sure UNDP HDI rankings paint a clear picture of Argentinas performance or contemporary merit in comparison to its neighbours, nor its trajectory.
According to these rankings, Chile scores 0.847 (inequality 0.67/ socio-economic sustainability 70.3) while Argentina scores 0.83 (inequality 0.71 / socio-economic sustainability 65.8).

By comparison Venezuela is 0.726 (inequality 0.6/ socio-economic sustainability 42.3) while Peru is 0.759 (inequality 0.61/ socio-economic sustainability 82.8) and Colombia is 0.76 (inequality 0.58 / socio-economic sustainability 58.1).
Both of the latter are on the upward trend while starting from positions of significant disadvantage in the 20th century.
Argentina however comes from a position of enormous privilege and wealth having a pre-existing and educated middle class - which is a changing / declining dynamic that is increasingly difficult to sustain. It is not a result of policies today or the recent past nor reason to be complacent and think that Argentina (or any country for that matter) is an unsinkable ship.

For me, the litmus test is to ask where you would have a better chance at a better future if you were poor - Argentina or one of its neighbours? And a "stable" currency and access to capital have an enormous part to play in that test, but over the past decades Argentina has proved incapable of providing or sustaining these tools meaning most of what we see is just the remnants of "old money" and little else.
 
I enjoy living in Argentina, I'm not an Argentina hater. I still think Buenos Aires has one of the better quality of life in comparison to other large Latin American cities. However, if you look at the statistics and just the general vibe...Argentina is on the decline, many other South American countries are growing and developing.

No one is blaming it all on Alberto. It's the general economic framework under which Argentina has been operating that is to blame. Once every 15 - 20 years you'll get a commodity boom that gives the country some life.
 
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